UFC Vegas 61 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Randy Brown vs. Francisco Trinaldo: Ignore Moneyline and Bet This Prop (Saturday, October 1)
Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC welterweight Randy Brown
Francisco Trinaldo vs. Randy Brown Odds
After a week hiatus, the UFC returns this weekend with UFC Vegas 61. The co-main event provides an exciting welterweight matchup between Randy Brown and Francisco Trinaldo.
The event, also dubbed UFC on ESPN+ 69 and UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan, streams entirely on ESPN+ beginning at 4 p.m. ET (1 p.m. PT) from Las Vegas.
In the event's co-headliner, Brown looks to add to his personal UFC-best three-fight winning streak by defeating a longtime UFC veteran.
His opponent, 44-year-old Trinaldo, hopes to defy time once again and build on his current 5-1 run.
Will the 12-year youth difference allow Brown to blast Trinaldo? Or will Trinaldo give the kid a veteran lesson?
Read on to find out the best betting angle for this matchup and a breakdown of how these fighters match up.
Tale of the Tape
| Trinaldo | Brown | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 28-8 | 15-4 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:17 | 10:34 |
| Height | 5'9" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 78" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 8/24/1978 | 6/8/1990 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.15 | 4.42 |
| SS Accuracy | 44% | 48% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.60 | 3.32 |
| SS Defense | 60% | 55% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.98 | 0.76 |
| TD Acc | 43% | 35% |
| TD Def | 59% | 71% |
| Submission Avg | 0.5 | 0.6 |
Brown came into the UFC with a shiny 6-0 record. He was able to scrape out a couple of wins over his first four years in the UFC octagon by amassing a 6-4 record, usually coming up short against steps up in competition.
Now, though, over his last three fights, he’s dispatched some solid names and is showing that he’s finally coming into his own and utilizing his skills to perfection.
The muay Thai striking of Brown is a thing of beauty. He does a great job of working his opponent from distance with his speed, footwork and combinations. He learned a valuable lesson in his last loss, which came at the hands of a tough Vicente Luque.
Seeing the level he needed to be at, Brown cranked up the training and has provided very solid performances recently.
RANDY BROWN 😳pic.twitter.com/LP6gQ5hlK6
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) April 25, 2021
He is staying disciplined from the outside, and though he got caught by Khaos Williams, he showed great composure and managed to battle back into that fight to still get his hand raised.
Brown’s Brazilian jiu-jitsu still has some ways to go, but I don’t think that is something he necessarily needs to worry about in this fight. This is a matchup in which his physical traits alone should be enough to come out victorious.
Dating back to November 2019, Trinaldo has found himself in a bit of a career resurgence at the ripe age of 44. It will be hard for him to replicate his best run in the UFC, when he was riding a seven-fight winning streak before losing at the hands of Kevin Lee. However, he is doing a good job of getting close.
Trinaldo has big power in his hands that demands respect. His cardio seems to be on point still, and his relentless pressure makes it hard for opponents to get comfortable. Many people expected Danny Roberts to have the perfect style to stop this run of Trinaldo, but Roberts had too many flaws in his defensive striking. He got clipped numerous times and ultimately ended up losing a decision.
Trinaldo’s iron-clad chin and aggressiveness make him a tough matchup for many fighters. However, at a certain point, it won’t be able to cut it anymore. Which is why I think this is a very tough matchup for him.
Trinaldo vs. Brown Pick
It did not surprise me in the least bit to see Brown as a chalky favorite here. Brown is on a surge, and even though Trinaldo is on a solid run too, it is easy to see the skill discrepancy here that makes this a tough fight for the underdog.
The speed, length, and footwork of Brown will cause too many problems for Trinaldo. The lone loss during Trinaldo's current six-fight run was due to him being much slower than Muslim Salikhov. That allowed Salikhov to see the shots that were coming his way, get out of the way of them, and then counter with his own faster shots. I’m expecting Brown to do the exact same thing, but with even more success.
It would be amateurish for me to suggest betting a -320 favorite straight up here. Although I do cap Brown at 85% (-570), not many folks like betting that kind of chalk. I'm a tad hesitant on the prop here, but I feel we could see this go the full 15 minutes, and I see value on the Brown by decision prop.
We’ve seen Brown fight power strikers in his last two matchups, and we saw him play it pretty safe, just chipping away at his opponents from distance. I’m expecting a similar outcome here with Brown not overextending too much so he doesn’t get clipped on the counters of Trinaldo. A safe and disciplined striking performance is what I’m expecting, which should help us cash this prop.
I’d be willing to play this prop up to -120 as history has shown us Brown is fine with outpointing his opponents rather than chasing a finish.
The Pick: Randy Brown by decision (+125 at Caesars)
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