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Friday Best Bet. This is good to 9. Spencer Arrighetti is living on borrowed time. He’s one of the biggest regression candidates among starting pitchers. He currently has a 3.13 ERA, but a 4.57 xERA and xFIP, along with a 4.35 SIERA. He finished last season with a 5.10 SIERA, so saying regression is due is not a wild claim. Sure, he’s been solid, but he’s still walking 10.9% of batters and is getting hitters to chase just 28% of the time. The Tigers offense looked lifeless last night, but Arrighetti’s stuff is a big step down from Imai’s. Arrighetti owns just a 99 Stuff+ grade with a 92 Location+ and 94 Pitching+. He’s a below average pitcher despite his solid ERA. The Tigers' current lineup has also seen him very well before. In 23 plate appearances against him, they have an absurd .556 batting average with a .951 xSLG. While it's a relatively small sample size, those are crazy numbers and show that Detroit’s offense wasn’t fooled by his stuff. Once Arrighetti exits, we’ll see an Astros bullpen that is not well rested right now. Okert, De Los Santos, and Hader have all thrown 30+ pitches during this series and will likely get the night off. Keider Montero will get the start for Detroit. I used to fade this guy every time he started, but he has been promising this season. I’m going back to my roots and fading him here. Montero currently has a 3.68 ERA with a 3.95 FIP, 4.86 xFIP, and 4.72 SIERA. He’s another regression candidate and has already been seen well by this Astros lineup. In 14 plate appearances against him, Houston is hitting .429 with a .568 xSLG. Montero doesn’t keep the ball on the ground and doesn’t get hitters to chase. He ranks in the second percentile in whiff rate, which means he simply isn’t fooling batters. The Tigers bullpen is in an okay rest spot, which is why I bet on the Tigers moneyline as well, but I still think we see a high scoring game here. Our model makes this total 9.1. Give me over 8.5.

📚Onyx

Very similar to the Leite prop where this sets up as the best matchup possible for Citron as a scorer, 3rd toughest to rack up assists. Project her closer to 3.2 and a 60% chance to stay under 3.5