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#EV Pinny -113 BO -115

The Braves were a team I was excited about coming into the year, and then boom, everything went wrong. They lost Profar, Murphy, and Kim all within a month of Opening Day. They’ve opened the season 4-2, but this is not the Braves team everyone thought it would be. Their lineup is very watered down, and they’ve also benefited from playing all six of their games at home. This will be the first time they travel all year, and it’s a cross country trip to Arizona. The Braves also played yesterday, so this is a true no rest spot for Atlanta. Reynaldo Lopez will get the ball for the Braves. He’s a pitcher who has gotten good results, but is someone I’m still highly skeptical of. Lopez had a good 2024 season but was injured for almost all of last year. His first start this year looked solid on the surface, as he owns a 1.50 ERA, but the advanced metrics tell a different story. He finished that game with a 4.44 xERA, 5.34 FIP, and 5.35 xFIP. This is much of the same story from his solid 2024 season. The results were good, but the underlying numbers were still questionable. In 2024, Lopez had an 8.8% barrel rate and a 42.2% hard hit rate. He also kept the ball on the ground just 39.6% of the time. These are concerning numbers when pitching at Chase Field due to its massive outfield. I think this Diamondbacks lineup will get to Lopez early. Ryne Nelson gets the ball for Arizona. He’s a pitcher I liked backing last season. His fastball is potentially the best in baseball, and the advanced metrics love him. He has an absurd 116 Stuff+ grade and a 106 Pitching+ grade. Nelson was crushed in his first start this season, but I’ll give him some slack. He was facing the Avengers (the Dodgers) and pitching on the road, where he’s been much worse throughout his career. Last year, he had a 4.26 road ERA but a 2.71 ERA at home. This Braves lineup isn’t all that scary with all the injuries and they could come out sluggish due to the cross country travel. I trust Nelson to pitch well tonight. I’ll avoid the volatile Diamondbacks bullpen and just take them to win the first five innings.