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Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

I realize fading Misiorowski sounds like maybe the dumbest possible bet you can make right now. I’m well aware he’s been the best strikeout artist on the planet this season and has opened with an absurd 40% K rate. My expected K model has him closer to 37%, so I’m not even trying to argue he’s overrated. In fact, most rest-of-season projection systems still have him closer to 29-32%, which I think is far too low. Miz is legitimately that good. The market is well aware of that too, though. What caught my eye is the Astros are finally doing something I’ve been waiting for a team to do for weeks: they’re sending 7 RHB to the plate today. Like a typical RHP, Miz has faced a heavy dose of LHB so far, with 55% of his batters faced hitting from the left side. The difference is he has absolutely absurd reverse platoon splits through his first two seasons, striking out LHB at a ridiculous 43% clip compared to a mere mortal 27.8% against RHB. Stacking this many righties may subtly ding his strikeout rate just enough to matter when you’re dealing with a line this high. He can absolutely still finish with 10+ Ks and I won’t be remotely shocked if he does. But if there were ever a time to fade Miz, this is probably it. I’m projecting him closer to -145 to stay under 8.5. Not for the faint of heart, I know. But sometimes the value lies in making the bet nobody else wants to make.

There may be some value on Jorge Mateo's hits prop. THE BAT X is projecting him to record 0.67 hits, and oddsmakers are implying 0.81. The model believes there is a 51% chance he records fewer than 1 hit. If you can get the under at +135 or better there is great value here. This play is good down to at least +117. Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty's sports betting projections at EV Analytics https://evanalytics.com/subscribe/mlb?ref=zdlkmgz