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Bech has had a very disappointing rookie season, but it’s usually not smart to completely write off a 2nd round WR 12 games into their career. I wasn’t expecting Bech to do much up to this point anyway. But with Thornton and Mayer ruled out for this game I’m expecting him to see a massive increase in usage here. Projecting him closer to 25.5 with around a 58% chance to clear 21.5

FD

Come on, there's no way we're not playing what may well be the worst NFL game of the year. These are two of the absolute worst offenses in football, so good luck finding much scoring. Cleveland forecasts freezing temperatures and windy conditions too, and windy games are 62% to the under over the last five seasons. Shedeur Sanders hasn't been terrible, but he hasn't been great. The Browns really have one good, sustained touchdown drive in two games with Sanders; the other three were drives of five plays or less against the terrible Raiders. Tennessee's defense isn't awful now that it's healthy and should get pressure up the middle and make things tough on Sanders. The Browns defense is elite, especially at home, and should make life miserable for Cam Ward. Tennessee ranks dead last in EPA per play against two-high safety looks, which Cleveland plays more than any team in the league and ranks first in EPA per play. The Titans also rank dead last against pressure, and you know Myles Garrett is coming for that sack record. The Titans are last in the league at 14.2 PPG. How in the world will they score here?! Their team total under 15.5 feels like a crazy line, until you notice they've gone under that in seven of 12 games already! When a total gets this low, history says books simply can't set the total low enough. Totals at 37 or below since November 2019 are 42-22-1 to the under (67%). At 36 or below, games are 17-7 to the under (71%) since 2012. The Browns have already played eight games below 40 points and five at 34 or below. Don't be daunted by the low total; play under 34.5 at -120 (theScore), still ahead of the final key number of 33. And don't stop there! In those 24 games since 2012 with a total at 36 or below, the losing team has topped out at 10 points in two-thirds of them, with 9-of-24 games (38%) seeing the losing team score single digits. I'm betting the "no" option on both teams to score 10 points at +250 (bet365), and just in case this gets really ugly, I'll also play "neither" team for first to reach 10 points at +2800 (BetMGM). Cleveland's defense is the biggest strength here and should be enough for a win. The Browns have allowed 6, 10, and 10 points in their wins, and the Titans have already scored 3 and 0 in losses, so play a Browns shutout at +1600 (DraftKings). If someone does find the endzone this game — and it's +4000 to bet they don't at bet365 — it'll probably be Quinshon Judkins. The Titans have allowed 14 touchdowns to RBs on the season, second most in the NFL with at least one in all but two games. Judkins has six TDs in Cleveland's three wins with at least one every game, compared to only one in all of Cleveland's losses combined. Play Judkins -110 (bet365) for an Anytime TD if you dare, and it's worth getting creative and parlaying a Judkins TD with the under at +375 (bet365) since that bet gets a boost for negative correlation with so few touchdowns available.