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Tatum has cleared this in all four games of the series, averaging 8.3 assists per game, but my Pass Mix analysis has him closer to 5.8 expected per game. That already bakes in his pretty significant increase in pass rate this series, which makes sense in a playoff setting with Tatum handling the ball more. Even after accounting for that, he’s still running hot in both potential assist rate and conversion rate. Jaylen Brown, Sam Hauser, and Neemias Queta have all been converting at unsustainably high rates off Tatum passes. Maybe it continues and he gets to 7+ again, but we’ve reached the point where the market feels inflated, I’d imagine 99% of the action has been on the over, and I’m willing to bite on the +116. I project him closer to 6.2 assists with around a 57% chance to stay under, with 6 assists his most likely outcome.

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