Latest NCAAF Betting Picks

It’s not over for Memphis; they gotta win out and get some help, but it’s not impossible for them to sneak back into the AAC Title game because of that H2H win over South Florida. This whole season, they’ve played great football outside of that letdown against UAB and the first half against Tulane last week. They roared back, outscored them 15-3 in the second half but came up short. And if they have Lewis in at the end of that game, maybe they win it. He’s a tough kid, he’ll tough out this ankle injury against ECU. I’m just not there with the Pirates. Win this year over FCS Campbell, Coastal before the QB switch, Army, Tulsa, Temple, Charlotte. They look struggled to move the football on BYU and Tulane, which are closer to Memphis caliber. Memphis will have to throw to beat this ECU defense, because they’re elite stopping the run but 106th in coverage. I’ll take the points.

@Joshua_Nunn flagged it early, but this Shonts team is reborn with Samari Collier at the helm. This is a job saving turnaround by Beck, they’ve won five of six, with the offense averaging 43 in the last three games. Collier’s legs are the difference and will be against the Eagles of Georgia Southern. The Eagles are dead last in FBS in pass rush, so he’ll be able to extend plays and hurt them in the scramble department. Jaylon Raynor killed them 50+ on the ground and three TDs. Want more comps? 50+ rushing out of the JMU QBs, 59 and 2 TDs from Gavin Wimsett and Jacksonville State. Collier will kill them on the ground. What’s interesting after some years of the Air Raid and quality WRs, GATA has gone with more of the ground attack and it’s working. 14th in line yards, 40th in success rate. OJ Arnold has gone north of 140 all-purpose yards in 2 of his last 3 games, so he’s the focal point here. Coastal did a decent job corralling Braylon McReynolds during this winning streak, but I anticipate both offenses having success. I just think the world of Collier and JC French will turn it over. 29 turnover worthy plays in the past two years, he just makes bad decisions.

Still no respect for our Eagles. 5-0 in Sun Belt Play, and they smacked Jacksonville State that is 5-0 in CUSA. That Miss State performance in the opener looks pretty good too given their fiesty year in the SEC. The offense has hit 38 points five times this season, and the pass defense has rounded into elite shape. That was the hope with the talent infusion from Marshall and Josh Moten and the secondary have delivered on the promise. Top 15 in passing success rate, coverage, EPA and pass rush. They’ll need to be great in the skies because Texas State, despite being 0-5 in the Belt, can score. 39 in a loss to Louisiana last week. But this Texas State defense is gonna keep GJ Kinne coaching in San Marcos until he’s 50. He was supposed to be the next rising star but this defense is beyond trash. Outside the top 100 in all pass defense metrics, can’t create havoc to balance that out (113th) and everyone moves the football when given the chance. 132nd in Quality Drives allowed. Anything under a touchdown, I’m counting on Braxton and Blake Anderson to score 38+ again and the defense to make Texas State pay when the ball is in the air.

Sam Houston is terrible. Awful against the pass, can’t run the ball, always behind the sticks. Their one win of the season, which they just picked up, over Oregon State was one of the most improbable of the season based on Parker Fleming’s Net Success Rate metric. They got outgained 474 to 157. Delaware meanwhile is having a really nice first year in the CUSA. They’re 5-4 overall, 3-3 in conference, quality wins over La Tech and UConn. Both at home in close games. Minicucci can really spin it. Last two games alone he’s accounted for 740 total yards and five touchdowns. And a little known fact, Delaware still has more to accomplish because if they get this win and secure bowl eligibility, they get around that transition year issue if there are not enough eligible bowl teams or a team backs out like Marshall did last year. So, they’ve seen it happen for teams in transitions before with Jacksonville State.