Latest MLB Betting Picks

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Trust me, I realize how absurd this bet is. Miz has a 39% K rate and is quite literally the best pitcher on planet Earth right now. Most projection models still have him as more of a 30-32% K rate pitcher going forward. I don’t. I have him closer to 35.5%, so I’m probably higher on him than almost anyone (who has spent decades making projections). But as much as I wish prop betting was as simple as “Miz good, me take over,” the books aren’t idiots. They know he’s the best strikeout pitcher on Earth too. So yes, I’m voluntarily signing up to sweat an under on the best strikeout pitcher in baseball. Sounds about as enjoyable as a root canal. My K prop sim still has him absolutely mowing down Reds hitters today. I have 8-9 Ks as his most likely landing spot. Will I be the least shocked person on Earth if he finishes with 10+? Absolutely not. But that’s the whole point. This isn’t me saying he isn’t capable of 10+. It’s me saying the market has overreacted just enough and I still make the under 9.5 closer to -150.