Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Odds & Betting Predictions - October 4, 2023

Diamondbacks at Brewers

11:08 pm • ESPN2

Arizona Diamondbacks

2-0

5 - 2

Milwaukee Brewers

0-2

pitcher		team	era	w-l
F.Peralta			7.20	0-1
Z.Gallen			4.55	2-3

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Diamondbacks 2-0	N/A	N/A	N/A
Brewers 0-2	N/A	N/A	N/A

Wednesday 11:08 p.m.

October 04, 2023

American Family FieldMilwaukee

ARI +115

1.15u

I have this bet placed idk how but we ride

F.Peralta u14.5 Outs+140

I’ll gladly play the line at this price - it’s an elimination game, and Peralta is an inefficient pitcher (4.18 pitches per PA is 4th/100, strike rate of 62.9% is 78th/100). The DBacks took an extremely patient approach vs Burnes yesterday, and I’d expect them to do that again today, to get to the Brewers bullpen (in which the high leverage guys were all used extensively yesterday). Plus, Peralta is worse the first time through the order - and this is not the type of game for him to settle in.

Over 7.5-110

@Zerillo

F.Peralta o5.5 Ks-115

Tailing token on this one

F.Peralta o14.5 Outs-125

J.Donaldson u0.5 Hits+155

1.55u

MGM. Donaldson is hitting .154 this season, and .127 versus righties (.148 in games started by righties). Only had a hit in 25/50 regular season games, and tonight he faces an above average right-handed pitcher in Zac Gallen. And the high leverage relievers for the DBacks also skew righty. I conservatively have a fair line here at +

F.Peralta o14.5 Outs-114

0.88u

MIL -125

$62.50

ARI +100 (F5)

Gotta rock with the snakes and Gallen

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)-130

1.3u

Gallen and Peralta. Enough said.

F.Peralta o5.5 Ks+100

1.1u

I’m love with these odds on one of the baddest dudes on the mound imo. This will be the leveler game up til the 7th with him and Gallen on the mound. It should be a game of unders, with the one exception being Freddy Kovers!

Over 7-120

1.2u

Over 7-120

0.6u

Bet to 7.5 (-110)

MIL -126

1.26u

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Featured Insight
Diamondbacks hitters have a hard-hit rate of just 38% since last season -- sixth-worst in MLB. Opponents have a hard-hit rate of just 37% against the BrewersRPs since last season -- seventh-best in MLB.

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The Brewers are 33-83 (.284) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season -- 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .208.

Tommy Pham struck out in 27% of PA's last season -- 14th highest in MLB-- 10th Percentile. Devin Williams had a strikeout rate of 40% last season -- second highest among qualified RPs-- 99th Percentile.

Freddy Peralta has allowed at least one HR in each of his last six games dating back to August 26th -- Matt Waldron has the longest active streak at 8.

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MLB Public Betting

Brewers are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Brewers are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Brewers are 43-38 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Brewers' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 40 of Brewers' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Brewers	87-75	44-37	43-38	43-48	43-26
Diamondbacks	82-80	37-44	45-36	37-48	43-31

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Brewers	81-70-11	40-33-8	41-37-3	41-43-7	40-25-4
Diamondbacks	92-64-6	50-29-2	42-35-4	50-33-2	41-29-4

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Brewers	1-2	47-34	46-35	54-37	38-31
Diamondbacks	89-73	44-37	45-36	52-33	35-39

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Oct 3rd	ARI	L 3-6	-1.5 L	O 8	ARI -175
Oct 1st	CHC	W 4-0	-1.5 W	U 8.5	MIL -140
Sep 30th	CHC	L 6-10	+1.5 L	O 9	CHC +110
Sep 30th	CHC	W 4-3	+1.5 W	U 8.5	MIL -106
Sep 28th	STL	W 3-0	-1.5 W	U 8	MIL -270

Wade Miley
P
Miley is out with elbow
Out
Christian Yelich
OF
Yelich is out with back
Out
Brandon Woodruff
P
Woodruff is out with shoulder
Out
Robert Gasser
P
Gasser is out with elbow
Out

Ryne Nelson
P
Nelson is out with shoulder
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RZ.Gallen, P	100	6	4	2
RR.Thompson, P	8	1	1	0
RK.Ginkel, P	12	0.1	1	0
LA.Saalfrank, P	6	0.2	0	0
RP.Sewald, P	16	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1C.Carroll, RF	2-4	1	0	0
2K.Marte, 2B	1-3	0	0	2
3T.Pham, DH	1-4	1	0	0
4C.Walker, 1B	0-4	1	0	0
5G.Moreno, C	0-1	0	0	0
5J.Herrera, C	0-2	0	0	0
6L.Gurriel, LF	1-4	0	0	1
7A.Thomas, CF	1-4	1	1	1
8E. Longoria, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
8E.Rivera, 3B	0-0	0	0	0
9G.Perdomo, SS	0-2	1	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RF.Peralta, P	85	5	5	4
RA.Uribe, P	19	0.1	0	1
LH.Milner, P	21	1.2	2	0
RE.Peguero, P	11	1	1	0
RT.Megill, P	15	1	3	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1C.Yelich, LF	3-5	1	0
2W.Contreras, C	1-5	0	0
3C.Santana, 1B	1-2	1	0
4M.Canha, DH	3-4	0	0
4J.Wiemer, PR	0-0	0	0
4J.Wiemer, DH	0-0	0	0
5S.Frelick, CF	0-3	0	1
6W.Adames, SS	1-3	0	1
7J. Donaldson, 3B	0-3	0	0
8B.Turang, 2B	0-2	0	0
8J.Winker, PH	0-1	0	0
8A.Monasterio, 2B	0-1	0	0
9T.Taylor, RF	0-4	0	0