In the series that's arguably offered the most intrigue of any through just the first day, all things have broken right for the Diamondbacks. They stole Game 1, got the news that Brandon Woodruff will be out for the series and managed to get both Devin Williams and Abner Uribe into Game 1 usage (even touching up Williams a bit).
Now in the first of two must-wins for the Brewers, they will turn to Freddy Peralta, while the Diamondbacks will counter with their ace, Zac Gallen, a pitcher who's been near the top of the Cy Young race for the majority of the season.
There are storylines galore for this series, so let's try to sift through them all and find the angles and bets that are going to be the most profitable.
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Game 2 Props
Zac Gallen Under 2.5 (+115)
There are several different angles on this bet.
First and foremost, while Gallen had a slight bump in the road in late August/mid-September, he was a consistently great pitcher this season, and one who has a long track record on top of that.
He allowed over two earned runs in just 15 of his 34 starts this season (44.1%), and we all know the hook is even quicker come the postseason.
The Diamondbacks used six different arms to get the Game 1 win, but only two are likely to be unavailable based on the Game 1 usage — and even those two could be "break glass in case of emergency" options if needed.
Gallen also completely dominated his lone start against the Brewers this season, and while I'm not one to give a one-start sample a ton of weight, it was his third-best start of the season, going seven shutout innings and striking out 11 with just three hits and a walk.
In 2022, he allowed just three runs over 12.0 innings against the Brew Crew and in 2021, it was five innings of one-run ball.
These are tiny samples over an extended time frame, but the point remains that he's handled them well.
And it makes sense. His pitch arsenal is not one that the Brewers thrive against. Using Baseball Savant's search function, the Brewers rank 26th among MLB teams against right-handed fastballs+curveballs+changeups, Gallen's exact mix.
Looking at the Brewers individually, it's really only Christian Yelich who should scare Gallen on his fastball, and potentially Willy Adames on his changeup.
Crazy things can happen, but it's a great matchup for Gallen, and a setting in which we all know starters get the short leash.
Getting plus money on his under 2.5 earned runs is a recommended bet on Wednesday.
Pick: Zac Gallen Under 2.5 Earned Runs
Corbin Carroll to Steal a Base (Live)
OK, this is a little bit of a funky one, so bear with me.
The Action squad has been all over the Diamondbacks' running game as a betting possibility in Game 1 — and this series as a whole — and I'm right there with them.
However, I'm slightly tweaking the recommendation for Game 2.
The books have at least somewhat sniffed out the Arizona steals angle, having priced Carroll pre-game at just +198. The implied odds of +198 are 33.56 and given that Carroll stole a base in 40 of 155 games this season (25.8%), it's fair to say that the books are aware that this is an advantageous setting for Carroll's thefts.
They're right. Stolen base rate tends to typically trend up slightly in the postseason, and with the Brewers having used William Contreras behind the plate in Game 1, they're more likely to turn to Victor Caratini in Game 2, who Anthony Dabbundo correctly pointed to as the much more favorable catcher to steal off in the Payoff Pitch preview podcast.
However, between that short price and the fact that Peralta was middle of the road in terms of allowing steals this season, I'm going to get a little cute with this bet.
The only two Brewers pitchers on the playoff roster to not pitch yesterday out of the pen were Colin Rea and Trevor Megill. While some of the Brewers' arms are likely to repeat, it's fair to assume these two are at least likely to get a shot.
The great news for bettors is that these two are also two of the easiest pitchers on Milwaukee to steal off of. Rea allowed a team-high 17 stolen bases in his 124 2/3 innings this season, while Megill allowed a remarkable 12 steals in just 34 2/3 innings, one of the highest SB/IP ratios in all of baseball.
If bettors are able to watch the game and live-bet Carroll for a steal if he's able to face either pitcher — let alone get on base with a chance to steal off of Rea or Megill (that would be the full hammer moment) — there's almost certainly going to be value on the theft-heavy Carroll against a pair of easy targets.
If you're unable to watch live, the way the bullpen sets up makes me OK with a pre-game bet on Carroll to steal a base at +198. But I much prefer being able to attack it live if you're able to.
