Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Odds Game 2 (National League Wild Card)
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | +115 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -140 |
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers odds for Game 2 at American Family Field opened with Milwaukee as a short -126 favorite.
The Brewers suffered a frustrating loss in Tuesday night's series opener and need to win on Wednesday night to keep the series alive against the underdog Diamondbacks.
Milwaukee will turn to Freddy Peralta to save its season. While the loss of Brandon Woodruff was a tough blow for the Brewers, Peralta has been steady and efficient this season. He has a tall task against Arizona ace and NL Cy Young contender Zac Gallen, who will be making his playoff debut.
Let's preview Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Round series between Arizona and Milwaukee and make a Diamondbacks vs. Brewers pick.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Gallen gets the ball for Arizona, and I think he could be a solid fade candidate in this matchup. While he was a Cy Young contender for most of this season, the back-half of the year was far more tumultuous.
It is this volatility that I don't trust, given that he has surrendered four or more earned runs in four of his past seven starts. His underlying metrics are not stellar, either, as Gallen ranks in the bottom half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, Barrel% and Hard-Hit%.
Gallen will likely need to be sharp due to a probable lack of run support, despite what we saw in Game 1. This was a lineup that ended the regular season in the bottom half of the league in hits per game, SLG, OPS and home runs.
So, if we get one of those poor Gallen outings that we have seen more often than not recently, Arizona could be in trouble here, especially against right-hander Freddy Peralta. Through 25 career plate appearances against Peralta, this current D'backs lineup owns a mere .091 BA, .136 SLG and .168 wOBA.
Milwaukee Brewers
Peralta's talent is typically overshadowed due to Milwaukee's powerhouse 1-2 combo in Burnes-Woodruff, but the right-hander would be in one of those spots on almost every other team in the league. He really found his groove over the second half of the campaign, going 6-2 with a 2.44 ERA and 0.85 WHIP over his past 11 starts.
Peralta allowed more than three earned runs just once over that stretch, which presents a much more consistent profile of dominance entering the playoffs than his counterpart, Gallen, in this matchup. Furthermore, Peralta's underlying metrics are also superior.
Entering this game, he ranks higher than Gallen in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, Whiff%, K%, Barrel% and Hard-Hit%. The right-hander has also dominated Arizona throughout his career, going 3-0 with a 0.55 ERA and 0.61 WHIP through four appearances.
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers
Betting Pick & Prediction
Both bullpens are annihilated from Game 1, so Gallen and Peralta are both going to be forced to go deep in this matchup. Given that I give the slight edge to Peralta, to go along with a team with their backs against the wall on its home diamond, I like Milwaukee to even up the series and force a decisive Game 3.
Do I trust Milwaukee's lineup? Absolutely not. But I don't trust Arizona's either. The Under could also be a good play here, but I don't love the number at 7.5.
