Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Odds & Betting Predictions - October 3, 2023

Diamondbacks at Brewers

11:08 pm • ESPN2

Arizona Diamondbacks

2-0

6 - 3

Milwaukee Brewers

0-2

pitcher		team	era	w-l
C.Burnes			9.00	0-1
B.Pfaadt			3.27	0-1

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Diamondbacks 2-0	+1.5-140	o8-112	+145
Brewers 0-2	-1.5+115	u8-108	-175

Tuesday 11:08 p.m.

October 03, 2023

American Family FieldMilwaukee

C.Carroll o0.5 SB+225

0.4u

ARI +155

1.55u

This team is hot right now. They’re young and it just feel right. Im ready to see the DAWGS strike! Back the Snakes.

Over 8-110

Under 0.5 (1st Inn)-115

1.5u

This one has a slight chance to go over but I’m taking what I feel is the safe side. Both of these pitchers should be able to deliver to some good hitters. Should be some hits but overall a fairly quick inning.

B.Pfaadt u14.5 Outs+105

1.58u

MIL -170

1.7u

MIL -1.5+125

C.Burnes o16.5 Outs-115

0.58u

Line feels a bit off because it’s playoffs and teams have a quick hook. But no Woodruff and Peralta often racking up a high pitch count makes me think MIL will need Corbin to go 6+ here. Save the pen for bigger games and use their best arm - who is among the best in Stuff+ - in G1 extended here

B.Turang u0.5 Hits+120

1.2u

Turang is under this line in 20/L40 starts, and is hitting .206 at home this season, and .211 overall since SEP 1. He likely hits 8th or 9th, and is probably the #1 pinch hit candidate amongst Brewers starters - while the Brewers were chasing the division, he was pinch hit for three times in the final five games before they clinched the division. DBacks also likely to carry 3-4 lefties in the bullpen. I only expect 1-2 PA vs Pfaadt, and then he’ll face a very strong DBacks bullpen (.197 BA allowed over the last month - Turang also .196 vs relief pitchers). I’m good with this down to +110.

B.Pfaadt o4.5 Ks+105

0.1u

C.Carroll o0.5 SB+215

0.1u

C.Burnes o5.5 Ks-125

0.13u

ARI +162

$50.22

MIL -180

Under 8-106

0.8u

Bet to -116

ARI +165

1.65u

ARI +163

1.22u

Bet to +154

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Featured Insight
Brewers hitters have a groundball rate of 45% over the last two weeks -- fifth-highest in MLB. Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Diamondbacks over the last two weeks -- tied for seventh-lowest in MLB.

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The Brewers are 33-83 (.284) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season -- 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .208.

Tommy Pham is batting just .184 on breaking pitches from RHP since last season -- fourth worst in MLB-- fourth Percentile. Opponents are hitting just .147 (53-for-361) on Corbin Burnes breaking pitches since last season -- second best among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP-- 99th Percentile.

Tommy Pham struck out in 27% of PA's last season -- 14th highest in MLB-- 10th Percentile. Devin Williams had a strikeout rate of 40% last season -- second highest among qualified RPs-- 99th Percentile.

Corbin Burnes has located his fastballs down 63% of the time (164/262) this season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% -- 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .200 (141-for-704) against Corbin Burnes this season -- 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .239 -- 97th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Brewers are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Brewers are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Brewers are 43-38 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Brewers' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 40 of Brewers' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Brewers	87-75	44-37	43-38	43-48	43-26
Diamondbacks	82-80	37-44	45-36	37-48	43-31

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Brewers	81-70-11	40-33-8	41-37-3	41-43-7	40-25-4
Diamondbacks	92-64-6	50-29-2	42-35-4	50-33-2	41-29-4

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Brewers	1-2	47-34	46-35	54-37	38-31
Diamondbacks	89-73	44-37	45-36	52-33	35-39

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Oct 1st	CHC	W 4-0	-1.5 W	U 8.5	MIL -140
Sep 30th	CHC	L 6-10	+1.5 L	O 9	CHC +110
Sep 30th	CHC	W 4-3	+1.5 W	U 8.5	MIL -106
Sep 28th	STL	W 3-0	-1.5 W	U 8	MIL -270
Sep 27th	STL	W 3-2	-1.5 L	U 8	MIL -145

Wade Miley
P
Miley is out with elbow
Out
Christian Yelich
OF
Yelich is out with back
Out
Brandon Woodruff
P
Woodruff is out with shoulder
Out
Robert Gasser
P
Gasser is out with elbow
Out

Ryne Nelson
P
Nelson is out with shoulder
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RB.Pfaadt, P	67	2.2	4	3
LJ.Mantiply, P	14	0.2	0	0
RM.Castro, P	10	0.2	0	0
RR.Nelson, P	15	0.1	1	0
RR.Thompson, P	23	1.2	1	0
RK.Ginkel, P	25	2	4	0
RP.Sewald, P	11	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1C.Carroll, RF	2-3	2	1	2
2K.Marte, 2B	1-5	1	1	1
3T.Pham, DH	0-4	1	0	0
4C.Walker, 1B	3-4	0	0	2
5G.Moreno, C	1-4	1	1	1
6L.Gurriel, LF	0-4	0	0	0
7A.Thomas, CF	0-4	0	0	0
8E. Longoria, 3B	1-4	0	0	0
9G.Perdomo, SS	1-2	1	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RC.Burnes, P	92	4	5	4
RA.Uribe, P	15	1	1	0
RE.Peguero, P	13	0.2	1	0
LH.Milner, P	6	0.2	0	0
RJ.Payamps, P	18	1.2	2	0
RD.Williams, P	31	0.2	1	2
RB.Wilson, P	6	0.1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1C.Yelich, LF	1-3	1	0	0
2W.Contreras, C	2-4	0	0	0
3C.Santana, 1B	1-5	0	0	1
4M.Canha, DH	0-4	0	0	0
5S.Frelick, CF	2-5	0	0	0
6W.Adames, SS	3-4	0	0	0
7J. Donaldson, 3B	2-4	1	0	0
8B.Turang, 2B	0-1	0	0	0
8J.Winker, PH	0-1	0	0	0
8A.Monasterio, 2B	0-0	0	0	0
9T.Taylor, RF	1-4	1	1	2