Blue Jays vs. Orioles Odds & Betting Predictions - May 28, 2026

Chris Bassitt is not the best person to back, but he’s a positive regression candidate, and I don’t think he will be as bad as he’s been. He currently has a 5.51 ERA, but a 4.83 xERA, 4.38 FIP, 4.76 xFIP, and 4.62 SIERA. Bassitt does a good job limiting barrels and keeping the ball on the ground. He’s also had solid expected numbers against the Blue Jays offense. In 71 plate appearances, Toronto has just a .223 xBA against him. The Blue Jays offense is also just 21st in wRC+ over the last two weeks. No, Bassitt is not a great arm, but this bet is more of a fade on Patrick Corbin and a bet on the Orioles offense to stay hot. Corbin has been awful for a few years now, but he’s started this season off with a solid 3.86 ERA. However, his estimators suggest major regression is coming. He has a 5.36 xERA with a 4.26 xFIP and 4.41 SIERA. His .291 xBA is brutal, and he’s only getting batters to whiff 20.3% of the time. He’s also being hard hit 43.3% of the time. I really like this Orioles lineup despite their slow start. They currently sit 11th in wRC+ after a miserable beginning to their season, and they are 7th in wRC+ over the last two weeks. Baltimore has also had phenomenal success against Corbin over a huge sample size. In 135 plate appearances, the Orioles current lineup is hitting .308 with a .303 xBA and .554 xSLG against him. I’ll sell on Corbin and I think Baltimore’s lineup will continue their success against him. The Orioles bullpen is pretty depleted right now, so I will stick with the first five innings moneyline. Our model has the fair moneyline odds at -215, so I will gladly take this at -129.

(B365) Thursday's Leadoff