Uzbekistan (0-1) and Portugal (0-0-1) will face off today, Tuesday, June 23, at 1 p.m. ET at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas.
Portugal is favored at a -700 price on the moneyline and Uzbekistan is a +1800 underdog. The over/under is 3.5 (+120o / -148u) goals.
Let's get into my Portugal vs Uzbekistan prediction and World Cup picks for Tuesday, June 23.
Portugal vs Uzbekistan Prediction, Picks
- Pick: Portugal -1
My Portugal vs Uzbekistan best bet is for Portugal to win by at least two goals. This aligns with a bet on Portugal to cover a -1 European Handicap, as they possess the quality to overwhelm an inexperienced Uzbekistan side.
Portugal vs Uzbekistan Odds, Line, Spread
| Portugal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 +110 | 3.5 +115o / -140u | -700 |
| Uzbekistan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -135 | 3.5 +115o / -140u | +1800 |
Portugal vs Uzbekistan Preview
This match represents the first-ever meeting between Portugal and Uzbekistan.
For Portugal, there's no room for error after dropping points in their opener. The pressure is entirely on them to perform, while Uzbekistan can play with the freedom of being the underdog in their first-ever major tournament.
We can expect Uzbekistan to set up defensively, likely with a back five, to try and absorb pressure and limit space for Portugal's attackers.
However, Portugal's quality is undeniable. Their average xG per game since the start of 2025 has been 2.34, which suggests the poor offensive showing against DR Congo was an outlier rather than the new norm.
If Martinez lets his team play with more urgency and creativity, they should generate numerous scoring opportunities.
Historically, Portugal has a mixed record against AFC nations in this competition, with three wins, one draw and two losses in six encounters. Their most recent match against an Asian opponent was a 2-1 loss to South Korea in 2022.
For Uzbekistan, this is their first-ever competitive match against a European opponent on this stage, marking a significant step up in competition.
Check out the best soccer odds before making your Portugal vs Uzbekistan picks.
Portugal vs Uzbekistan Pick, World Cup Same-Game Parlay
- Portugal -1 (-161)
- Portugal to Win & Under 4 Portugal Goals (-143)
Portugal's 1-1 draw against DR Congo was a significant underperformance. Roberto Martinez's squad managed only seven total shots, with just one on target, their worst attacking display in this competition since 1966.
Despite holding 75% of the possession, their expected goals (xG) figure was a meager 0.65. This lack of creativity was surprising given a midfield that includes stars like Bruno Fernandes and Vitinha.
A strong response is expected against Uzbekistan. The pressure is on Portugal to not only win but to do so convincingly.
This likely means a more aggressive tactical approach, moving away from an over-reliance on Cristiano Ronaldo and involving their other dynamic attackers more frequently.
In nine of their last 14 victories, Portugal have won by a margin of two or more goals, showing they have the capacity to cover this spread when they are focused.
Uzbekistan, meanwhile, lost 3-1 to Colombia in their opening match. While they showed flashes of attacking intent in the second half, their inexperience at this level was evident.
They conceded three goals and will face an even greater test against a Portuguese side desperate for a result. While Uzbekistan may adopt a defensive, low-block strategy to frustrate their opponents, Portugal's superior talent should ultimately prove too much to handle.
The combination of Portugal's need for a statement win and Uzbekistan's defensive vulnerabilities supports a comfortable victory for the European side.
However, given Portugal's recent struggles to be free-flowing in attack, a massive goal-fest seems less likely, making the combination of a Portugal win with under four team goals an appealing angle.
Portugal vs Uzbekistan Probable Starting Lineups
Uzbekistan Projected Lineup (3-4-3)
- Goalkeeper: Yusupov
- Defenders: Khusanov, Ashurmatov, Abdullaev
- Midfielders: Karimov, Mozgovoy, Shukurov, Nasrullayev
- Forwards: Fayzullaev, Urunov, Shomurodov
Portugal Projected Total Goals (4-2-3-1)
- Goalkeeper: Costa
- Defenders: Cancelo, Araujo, Veiga, Mendes
- Midfielders: Vitinha, Neves; Silva, Fernandes, Leao
- Forward: Cristiano Ronaldo
Portugal vs Uzbekistan Betting Trends & Sharp Action
