The Montreal Canadiens and Tampa Bay Lightning meet in Game 7 of the NHL Playoffs tonight. Puck drop is set for 6:00 p.m. EDT at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Fla. The game will be broadcast live on TNT.
The Lightning are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 5.5 (+120o / -145u). The Lightning are a -158 favorite to win outright, while the Canadiens are +132 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Canadiens vs. Lightning predictions and NHL picks.
Canadiens vs. Lightning Odds, Pick
| Canadiens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -202 | 5.5 +120o / -145u | +132 |
| Lightning Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +167 | 5.5 +120o / -145u | -158 |
- Canadiens vs. Lightning Spread: Lightning -1.5 (+167 ), Canadiens +1.5 (-202)
- Canadiens vs. Lightning Over/Under: 5.5 (+120o / -145u)
- Canadiens vs. Lightning Moneyline: Canadiens +132, Lightning -158
Canadiens vs Lightning Polymarket Odds
Use Polymarket invite code ACTION to get early access and bypass 1 million+ people on the waitlist. Our Polymarket invite code also unlocks a trading bonus: Deposit $20, Get $20 Bonus!
Canadiens vs. Lightning Preview
Montreal Canadiens
This matchup comes down to youth vs. experience. The Lightning’s core has played in numerous high-pressure games like Sunday's Game 7, while much of the Canadiens’ roster has limited experience in situations like this.
In addition to the experience gap, Montreal is the weaker two-way team. This season, Tampa Bay ranked in the top nine in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60), expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) and expected goal share.
By comparison, the Canadiens trail Tampa Bay in each of those metrics. That leaves goaltending, which is yet another advantage for the Lightning.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay is no stranger to must-win situations, particularly with goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy. This season's likely Vezina Trophy winner, Vasilevskiy, put together another strong campaign.
Through 58 starts, he is 39-15-4 with a .912 save percentage and a 2.31 goals-against average. After a slow start to the series, Vasilevskiy returned to form in Game 6, stopping all 30 shots he faced in a win-or-go-home situation.
Top players often perform at their best in high-pressure moments, and Vasilevskiy has consistently done so throughout his career.
Canadiens vs. Lightning Prediction
There are several reasons to back Tampa Bay in this matchup. The Lightning hold advantages in experience, offense, defense and goaltending.
Tampa Bay also has home-ice advantage, which could present a challenging environment for Montreal. The Lightning went 27-15-2 at home this season.
Finally, in his past six home playoff starts against Montreal, Vasilevskiy is 4-2 with a .929 save percentage and a 1.78 goals-against average.
Pick: Lightning Moneyline (-147 at Polymarket | Play to -155)
