Rovell: Why Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Is Week 12’s Most Interesting Line
Grant Halverson/Getty Images. Pictured: Tom Brady.
It seems like betting against Tom Brady has become more popular ever since he forgot it was fourth down.
That brings us to the most interesting line of Week 12: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 against the Kansas City Chiefs.
At most places, the line hasn't moved since it opened after the Chiefs pulled out a win against the Las Vegas Raiders, but not covering was enough to keep the number where it started.
Our Action PRO Report has 55 percent of the bets on KC, but 81 percent of the money at -3.
Some sportsbooks are willing to take the lopsided action. The strategy of Circa, which often opens the lines, moved it to KC -3.5, where sportsbook manager Chris Bennett said the action isn't quite as brisk.
Brady has now been a home underdog twice this season, which is the same amount of times he was a home underdog as the Patriots' QB from 2006 to 2019.
In his previous three starts as a home underdog, he is 3-0 — not just against the spread, but straight up.
He beat the Green Bay Packers (+3) this year, the Denver Broncos (+3) in 2014 and the Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5) that same year.
AFC South Showdown
The Titans are only three-point dogs despite being the road team and getting waxed by 17 on Nov. 12 at home by these same Colts.
Not only did the Titans beat the Ravens their last time out, but Derrick Henry has been talked about a whole lot more than any player the Colts have.
"The Colts aren't a public team," Bennett said. "They have a good defense, but Philip Rivers isn't exciting and they don't really have a standout skilled position player."
The Colts are 6-4 against the spread so far this season, while the Titans are 4-6.
QB Decisions Moving Lines
There are two games where bettors are trying to figure out just how good the quarterbacks will be. Or, more likely, how bad they are.
The first one is the Bengals-Giants game, where Cincinnati will sub Brandon Allen in for Joe Burrow, who is out for the season.
Allen previously had three starts with the Broncos and wasn't particularly impressive. The line has moved from -4.5 to -6 in favor of the Giants.
The Giants have covered their last four games, but all as dogs of 3 points or more. This will be only the second time this year that the G-Men will be favored, and the only time they were previously favored they lost outright to the Washington Football Team (+2).
The Giants' co-tenant, the New York Jets, are getting Sam Darnold back after a two-game hiatus. The Miami Dolphins opened as a 7.5-point road favorite, but they're now down to 6.5.
Is Sam Darnold worth a point over backup Joe Flacco?
"I'm not sure Darnold is that much better actually," Bennett said. "You look at the box score and you see he has 125 yards passing in a game even though he played the whole game."
Chargers-Bills Sharp Action
There is a sharp battle on the total this week in the Chargers-Bills game. The game opened at 50, but it hit as high as 52.5.
"We've had a sharp bettors hit on either side," Bennett said on Friday afternoon. "We're now at 51.5."
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