The New York Knicks (3-0) and Cleveland Cavaliers (0-3) will clash in Game 4 of the NBA Eastern Conference Finals this Monday. Tipoff from Rocket Arena in Cleveland is set for 8:00 p.m. ET, with the game airing live on ESPN.
The Knicks are 2-point road favorites over the Cavs in Game 4 tonight (Knicks -2), with the over/under set at 218.5 total points. New York is a -130 moneyline favorite to win outright, while Cleveland is priced at +110 to pull off the upset and extend the series.
Will Cleveland go out sadly in a sweep, or will New York have to wait a little while longer to punch its ticket to the Finals for the first time in 27 years? Let's get to my Knicks vs. Cavaliers Game 4 predictions and NBA picks for Monday, May 25.
Knicks vs Cavaliers Predictions, Picks
- Knicks vs Cavaliers picks: First-Half Total Over 111.5 (-110) / Full-Game Total Over 218.5 (-110)
My Cavaliers vs. Knicks Game 4 best bet is split between the first-half total to go over 111.5 points and the full-game total to go over 218.5 points. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Knicks vs Cavaliers Game 4 Odds
| Knicks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 218.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
| Cavaliers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 218.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
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New York Knicks vs Cleveland Cavaliers Game 4 Preview
Cavaliers Betting Preview: Accepting Defeat
The Cavaliers embarrassed themselves in Game 3. I was embarrassed for them. Again. I don’t remember being embarrassed for a team that made the conference finals this many times, but here we are.
The Cavs face elimination at home after getting thoroughly outplayed and seemingly quitting on multiple possessions late in Game 3. The Cavs have seemingly accepted the fact that the Knicks are better than them and this is the end of the line. But, will Cleveland extend the series and make the Knicks earn it on their home floor?
I don't see an edge on either side in this spot. The Cavs may get it together and make the Knicks earn it at home, sending their fans home with the hopes and dreams of an 0-3 comeback, or they might roll over like they have done in the past.
Looking at historical trends, road favorites with a chance to sweep are 48-20 (76%) since 2003, but just 34-32-2 (51.5%) ATS, meaning they are not profitable ATS. After Round 1, those teams are 15-5 SU but just 7-11 ATS. In the conference finals, they are 3-1 SU and 1-3 ATS.
Additionally, the line move is not directionally accurate: teams that were road 'dogs in Game 3 and are road favorites in Game 4 are 8-7 SU and 7-8 ATS.
There is some precedent for trailing teams pushing back; the Timberwolves, down 0-3 to the Thunder last year, won Game 4 before being dispatched, and the Mavericks in 2024 were completely overwhelmed and incapable of really challenging Boston, yet won Game 4 down 0-3.
So there’s precedent, but the task remains monumental.
Knicks Betting Preview: 10 Straight Wins
Is New York truly a team of destiny? The Knicks have won 10 straight playoff games, and I, for one, will not be trying to stop that falling lightsaber anymore. Talk to me once they lose a game and we can discuss the market value.
The Knicks were priced at +2.5 to close Game 3 and opened as -1.5 in Game 4. That’s a huge move across one result, indicating the books both anticipate movement on the Knicks if they hung them as underdogs again, and are willing to adjust the number based on New York’s continued domination.
When looking at the side for Game 4, it has to be Knicks-or-nothing. In the Knicks' five series-clinching games they've won with Jalen Brunson, their average margin of victory is 17 points, with a 5-0 ATS mark and ATS differential of 18 points.
That said, this doesn't feel like a great spot to back the Knicks, but it’s certainly not a spot to fade them, either. The overall data says the better team (up 3-0) wins, meaning the Knicks moneyline is the side, but I’ll avoid this one.
If the Knicks lose Game 4 tonight, I’ll be back on them in Game 5.
Knicks vs Cavaliers Picks, Best Bets
First-Half Total Over 111.5 (-110) / Full-Game Total Over 218.5 (-110)
The baseline matchups support a high-scoring game. The Cavaliers refuse to play defensive lineups with Jaylon Tyson and Keon Ellis, opting instead for Sam Merrill and Max Strus for offensive angles.
If the Cavs get positive shooting regression and score a ton of points, they could potentially win this game while the Knicks also score at a high level. Conversely, if the Knicks win, it’s a blowout scenario where the Knicks just rack up a ton of points.
While the biggest shooting regression points are the Cavs positively and the Knicks negatively, the Cavaliers’ defense simply isn’t good enough to force a truly bad outcome within most normal ranges of outcomes.
In the 10 potential clinching game Brunson has played in for the Knicks, the over is 7-3. Furthermore, when the road team is favored to sweep Game 4, the first half over is 26-16-2 (63%).
I’ll look to the first half over with a play on the full-game over as well.
Mikal Bridges Over 14.5 Points (-115)
Mikal Bridges has scored over 14.5 points in all three games in this series, and I think this number should be closer to 16.5.
Bridges is a spectacular 12-of-14 when defended by Donovan Mitchell or James Harden in this series per NBA.com’s wonky tracking data. He is the player the Cavs try and hide their weaker defenders on, and Bridges has made them pay.
Bridges routinely gets over screens on pin-downs and slices inside in transition, proving he is able to punish the defense, not only as a spot-up shooter, but also off the bounce in halfcourt sets.
I have bet this prop every game in this series, and it has hit every time. He may not play enough if the Knicks blow them out, but hopefully he can still get home first if that's the case.
Dennis Schröder Under 0.5 Three-Pointers Made (-154)
Dennis Schröder played just nine minutes last game and Kenny Atkinson is more likely to go down with the guys he trusts—who he should not, by the way—than let Schröder out there.
Schröder has been bad by the eye-test, even though they’ve technically won his minutes. He should play more, but he won’t, and if he does get out on the floor, the Knicks' perimeter defense won’t drop deep and allow him to get up open three-point attempts.
Knicks vs Cavaliers Game 4 Betting Predictions
- First-Half Total Over 111.5 (-110) / Full-Game Total Over 218.5 (-110)
- Mikal Bridges Over 14.5 Points (-115)
- Dennis Schröder Under 0.5 Three-Pointers Made (-154)
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