We’re going to be trying something different at Action Network this season.
Minor League baseball is an inefficient market. I’ve been betting on Triple-A ball since 2021, and the market has become widely available enough that I was able to provide picks to my subscribers last season — I went a documented 112-81-8 (58%) for a 51.7-unit profit.
You can still get most of my Triple-A picks over at WagerTalk, but I’m going to start publishing an Minor League baseball column here at Action Network on Tuesdays and Fridays, previewing the week and weekend ahead while providing some actionable insights.
Through the first half of the season, I'm 53-33 betting on Triple-A baseball, good for +44.5 units of profit.
Minor League Baseball Best Bets
Buffalo Bisons @ Syracuse Mets
Friday, 6:35 PM ET
This Buffalo lineup is as good as it’s been all season right now, and I don’t think this Syracuse team is very good, so I’m going to look for spots to back the Bisons as an underdog this weekend.
The tough part in fading Syracuse is that the Mets have respectable starting pitching, but it’s TBD how Syracuse will stack their pitching. If we can avoid Tong/Wenninger/Thornton, I think Buffalo likely has the upper hand over the next few games.
The reason I’m looking to avoid Syracuse’s better pitchers is that Buffalo lacks pitching, so the Bisons will almost always be at a disadvantage in this department.
The attraction to the Buffalo side for me is a lineup that likely features Davis Schneider, Jay Harry, John Kasevich, Yohendrick Pinango, and Charles McAdoo. If I get that, I’m going to be willing to roll with Buffalo’s pitching against the back end of the Syracuse rotation since the Mets don’t have many good relievers — the pitching is probably equal here once the starters get out of this game.
Assuming Syracuse has Nick Morabito and the other usuals (I’ll be looking for rehabbers as well) in the lineup, I think the Over is probably in play here as well (especially if neither starting pitcher is very good).
With that being said, we have three chances for the pitching to be equal or better for Buffalo, and that’s the spot I’ll be targeting this weekend if I get the lineup and price that I want (Buffalo +100 or better).
Pick: Buffalo Bisons ML
Sacramento River Cats @ Albuquerque Isotopes
Friday, 8:35 PM ET
I thought Sacramento came into the second half overvalued after their monster run to end the first half, and now they are way overvalued into this series after playing a very watered-down Salt Lake squad last week.
Sacramento went 4-2 at home against the Bees, but that’s not all that impressive, as Salt Lake rolled out one of the worst teams they have put on the field in any series this season.
Sacramento has big-time starting pitching right now, but that gets a bit negated by the altitude in Albuquerque.
Albuquerque has the far better lineup, so (similar to the Buffalo/Syracuse series) if we can find a spot where the River Cats have one of their lesser starters on the mound, we can probably find a winner with the ‘Topes.
I also think we might see Albuquerque +1.5 come into play if we are willing to fade one of Sacramento’s better pitchers.
This rotation has been Joe Whitman, Matt Wilkinson, Carson Seymour, Carson Whisenhunt, and Blade Tidwell (give or take, as Whisenhunt has been called up a few times) over the past month or so. Now add recent call-up Cesar Perdomo into the mix and what you have is easily the best rotation in the Pacific Coast League.
The issue with Sacramento is this is known; the books know that’s a great rotation, and the River Cats are typically at a premium price because of it. For the most part, it’s justified.
However, this weekend, I think Sacramento ends up laying big numbers on the road with altitude similar to that of Coors Field.
Albuquerque also has a loaded lineup; having to pitch at Isotopes Park against this Isotopes lineup is probably the worst scenario for any pitcher, so I think this negates by far the biggest edge Sacramento has in this series.
Albuquerque doesn’t have much in the way of starting pitching, but there are some respectable relievers on this roster, and the Isotopes will go to a bullpen game from time to time.
Sean Sullivan has proven to be a solid Triple-A pitcher, so he’s someone I’d be willing to back (at the right price), and another scenario that makes sense is Albuquerque bullpen game against someone like Seymour or Tidwell.
Regardless, I don’t think it’s going to be difficult to find value on the ‘Topes this weekend.
Pick: Albuquerque Isotopes ML | Albuquerque Isotopes +1.5
Oklahoma City Comets @ Tacoma Rainiers
Friday, 10:05 PM ET
We were all over the Tacoma/Las Vegas series last week, and I’m going to focus on Tacoma again this weekend.
On one side, we have an Oklahoma City team with one of the best lineups in Triple-A and was one of the best teams in the first half, but is vulnerable because they don’t have a ton of pitching.
On the other side, we have a Tacoma team that was one of the worst teams in all of Triple-A in the first half because of their horrific lineup, but just got a massive boost with two of the top prospects in the organization (Michael Arroyo and Lazaro Montes) moving up from Double-A to Triple-A.
This series is priced how I would have expected a series between these two teams to be priced a few weeks ago, but there are a couple of equalizers here.
Oklahoma City hasn’t gotten better; this is the same team from the first half that has a great lineup but, outside of the occasional appearance from River Ryan, doesn’t have any elite arms.
Tacoma, on the other hand, has massively improved their lineup as Montes and Arroyo are now probably the Rainiers' two best hitters, and this series is in Tacoma, which is the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in the Pacific Coast League.
I think that benefits Tacoma, as it’s just much tougher to hit the ball out of this ballpark (which should help neutralize the Comets lineup). Meanwhile, Oklahoma City’s staff isn’t loaded with swing and miss, so there’s a good chance Tacoma continues to put the ball in play (like they did last week against Las Vegas) and scores some runs.
Oklahoma City is already priced as the favorite tonight and likely will be all weekend. As long as Montes and Arroyo are both in the Tacoma lineup, I’ll be looking to back the Rainers as an underdog and against the +1.5 line if it’s affordable.
Pick: Tacoma Rainiers ML | Tacoma Rainiers +1.5
Trigger's Top Triple-A Plays for Tuesday
- Buffalo Bisons ML (@ Syracuse, 6:35 PM ET)
- Albuquerque Isotopes ML & +1.5 (vs. Sacramento, 8:35 PM ET)
- Tacoma Rainiers ML & +1.5 (vs. Oklahoma City, 10:05 PM ET)
To keep up with any Minor League baseball bets I make, be sure to follow me in the Action Network App.
How To Bet on Triple-A
The first thing you need to understand about exploiting the Triple-A market is that it’s still a developmental league.
The players range from MLB-ready prospects to 30-plus-year-old journeymen trying to make it back to the show. You also have a handful of guys who likely top out at Triple-A but are good for organizational depth.
It’s also worth mentioning that 14 players on the Triple-A roster are also on the MLB 40-man roster, and these guys are constantly moving up and down from the big leagues.
All this makes each roster dynamic and volatile.
Bookmakers track the big names (e.g., Konnor Griffin) but can’t keep up with all the roster moves on a day-to-day basis. They also struggle to track the “developmental” aspect of everyone needing to play.
Lineups will look different day to day, and that’s primarily where I find my edge. This edge will become more pronounced as the season progresses, as I have a much greater bias toward in-season data and need a larger sample size to detect actionable wagers.
It’s worth noting that the Triple-A series consists of weekly six-game series that run Tuesday through Sunday. Additionally, every game is televised on MiLB.TV, which you can get as part of your MLB.TV subscription or directly at milb.com.
