The Boston Red Sox host the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday, July 17. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on RAYS and MLB.TV.
The Red Sox are -118 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The Rays are +100 on the moneyline and -1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Rays vs Red Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report and more.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, Picks
- Rays vs Red Sox Pick: Jake Bennett Under 3.5 Ks (+130) · Yandy Diaz 1+ Hits (-340) · Parlay Odds +174 (FanDuel)
My Rays vs Red Sox best bet is a parlay combining these Jake Bennett and Yandy Diaz props. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rays vs Red Sox Odds, Line, Spread
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +153 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -107 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -187 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -112 |
- Rays vs Red Sox Moneyline: Rays ML -107, Red Sox ML -112
- Rays vs Red Sox Over/Under: 8.5
- Rays vs Red Sox Run Line: Rays -1.5 (+153), Red Sox +1.5 (-187)
Rays vs Red Sox Projected Starting Pitchers
| Griffin Jax (RHP, TB) | Stat | Jake Bennett (LHP, BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-6 | W-L | 4-3 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.4 |
| 3.47 / 5.30 | ERA / xERA | 2.64 / 2.94 |
| 4.42 / 3.59 | FIP / xFIP | 3.02 / 3.65 |
| 16.0 | K-BB% | 14.8 |
| 43.5 | GB% | 50.7 |
| .275 | BABIP | .252 |
| 104 | Stuff+ | 92 |
| 104 | Location+ | 115 |
Rays vs Red Sox Preview
Tampa Bay Rays
We have two breakout starting pitchers doing battle in this one.
It's Griffin Jax for the Rays, and he has been rolling. Since entering the rotation on April 26, he has a 2.66 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP on a 25% K% and a 7.4% BB%. Strikeout-wise, he does seem to benefit from the dome in Tampa. His home K% is 29.4% while his mark on the road is below 20%.
So Jax finds himself in a less-than-ideal matchup in Fenway. The Red Sox were one of the hottest teams finishing up the first half.
The offense does leave a lot to be desired; I don't view them as a good lineup overall, but they can take advantage of the home park and give Jax a little bit of a hard time in this one.
The Rays bullpen is always a factor when Jax is on the mound. He's gone more than five innings just once and is throwing fewer than 70 pitches per outing more times than not.
Jax is here for 15 outs as a probable max. But the Rays have a good bullpen, and everybody is fully charged and ready to go after the break.
This is Game 1 of the doubleheader, so maybe they'd like an extra inning out of Jax for this one, but I think the proper expectation is five innings.
Boston Red Sox
Jake Bennett is the home starter. He finished his breakout first half with a 1.00 ERA and 0.70 WHIP in his final four starts, even going 7+ innings in his last two outings.
His fastball is nothing special (93mph) when you watch it, but it has characteristics that make it work very well, and it has an impressive 15% SwStr%. His changeup is the equalizer against righties (Bennett is a lefty), so it all works pretty well for him.
We didn't expect him to do much in the majors, so I'd be hesitant to think he can keep this kind of stuff up, but he is a potentially good pitcher.
The Rays really don't like to strike out, and that's where I think Bennett is going to have extra problems today. He has just a 19% K% on the year, matching the Rays' 19% team mark.
My projection on Bennett is for 3.75 strikeouts in this one. But the books are even more pessimistic on him, putting the over/under line at 3.5.
Rays vs Red Sox Pick, MLB Best Bet
My pitcher projections from my advanced and popular model over at MLB Data Warehouse:
- Jax: 73 Pitches, 4.2 IP, 3.9 H, 1.9 ER, 5.0 K, 1.4 BB
- Bennett: 79 Pitches, 5.1 IP, 5.1 H, 2.3 ER, 3.8 K, 1.4 BB
I just don't see how Bennett is going to get the ball by the Rays today. I think the over/under line is set right on DraftKings, but the +140 line on under 3.5 Ks makes a lot of sense with my projection, which has him right around 3.5.
Also, it's a phenomenal spot for Yandy Diaz against a soft-tossing lefty with the benefit of the Green Monster out there. I could see Yandy ripping a ball or two off the wall and having a nice day.
Picks: Jake Bennett Under 3.5 Ks (+130) · Yandy Diaz 1+ Hits (-340) · Parlay Odds +174 (FanDuel)
