The Chicago Cubs host the St. Louis Cardinals on July 3, 2026. First pitch from Wrigley Field is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on MARQ.
The Cubs are favored by -131 on the moneyline. The Cardinals are +109 on the moneyline. The total is set at 10.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Cardinals vs Cubs prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Cardinals vs Cubs Prediction
- Cardinals vs Cubs Pick: Under 10.5
My Cardinals vs Cubs best bet is on game totals. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cardinals vs Cubs Odds
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +160 | 10.5 -106o / -114u | +106 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -194 | 10.5 -106o / -114u | -124 |
- Cardinals vs Cubs moneyline: Cardinals +106, Cubs -124
- Cardinals vs Cubs over/under: 10.5 (-106 / -114)
- Cardinals vs Cubs spread: Cardinals -1.5 (+160), Cubs +1.5 (-194)
Cardinals vs Cubs Probable Pitchers
| RHP Andre Pallante (STL) | Stat | LHP David Peterson (CHC) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-5 | W-L | 4-6 |
| 1.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| 3.83 / 3.78 | ERA / xERA | 5.86 / 4.83 |
| 3.97 / 4.01 | FIP / xFIP | 3.92 / 4.10 |
| 11.2% | K-BB% | 10.3% |
| 54.0% | GB% | 50.2% |
| .283 | BABIP | .342 |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 89 |
| 104 | Location+ | 100 |
Cardinals vs Cubs MLB Betting Preview
St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview
Immediately, I'm struck by the 10.5-run total. I had this one pegged at 9 or 9.5. Yes, it's going to be hot, but it doesn't look like it should be brutal like it has been in some spots.
The Cardinals send Andre Pallante to the rubber with his 18%. His K-BB% is way below what you want at 11%. You're looking for 15%+ to start calling a pitcher "good". Pallante can't get whiffs (9.7% SwStr%) and his fastball is one of the worst ones you'll find in today's game in terms of velocity and movement and all of that business.
If you like pitching and you don't know much about Pallante, he's an interesting guy to look at. He's posting another very high ground ball rate (55%), and the special thing about that is the 72% GB% on his four-seamer. It's not a common four-seamer. I'm not even sure we should be calling it a four-seamer. The league average GB% on four-seamers is 32% — only one man is above 52%, and that's Pallante at 72%. Obviously, there's something very different about his fastball.
So that's resulted in a low 0.9 HR/9 this year. He had a bit of a blip last year at 1.2, the year before that was 0.6. He's very good at keeping the ball in the yard.
But that's all the good we can say about Pallante. He's not at anything besides limiting homers. The Cubs could certainly do some damage with a few walks and 7+ hits in this one. But they'll need to string them together this time, rather than hitting a bunch of homers as they did against the Padres' fly-ball-heavy staff.
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview
On the Cubs side is newcomer David Peterson. The Cubs were desperate and made a rare June trade to acquire some rotation help. It's always interesting to check the pitch usage when a guy changes teams.
One start isn't enough to trust, but Peterson did throw just 17% sliders after being above 25% when he was with the Mets. That could be random or just about the handedness of the hitters he faced, but it's not uncommon at all to see a team immediately tweak a guy's pitch mix to better fit their philosophy.
So it was 60% sinkers and four-seamers in that first start with the baby bears. His inker for the year as a 52% GB%, his fastball is at 40% (above the league average for that pitch), and his slider has a very high 62% GB%.
That's the theme here, and it's the betting angle we're taking. People are thinking these Cubs games are like free money for 10+ run performances. And they'll see the low profiles of these two starts (Peterson 5.83 ERA, Pallante 3.92) and they'll be hammering the over.
And it could happen, but I want to give some respect to the run-prevention abilities of Peterson and Pallante. They walk guys, they don't strike out guys, and they're inefficient, but they don't give up a ton of long balls. And that makes it pretty easy to hit under 10.5 as long as you get just a little bit of luck in the strand rate and BABIP departments.
Cardinals vs Cubs Pick, Betting Analysis
There will be hits, there will be walks.
Righties on the Cubs are in a good spot, as Peterson has a 14% K% and a .351 xwOBA allowed to them.
- Alex Bregman
- Seiya Suzuki
The lefties on the Cardinals are in a good spot; Pallante has a 17% K% against them.
- JJ Wetherholt
- Lars Nootbaar
But again, you're going to need multiple hits in an inning to see a bunch of runs being scored, because the long balls aren't coming like they were in that ridiculous JP Sears vs. Matt Boyd fly ball city matchup the other day.
The line might move. It seems like a lot of books wait for a good weather report to set the line. But the early look shows a 10.5 total in some spots. And I'd be all over the under on that.
Pick: Under 10.5 (-115)
