Read on for my favorite MLB player props for Tuesday, including picks for Blue Jays vs Astros and Cubs vs Mets.
Astros vs Blue Jays Props
Okamoto crushed his 17th home run of the season yesterday, knocking Hunter Brown out of the game in the process (which helped me cash the Under on Brown’s strikeout prop).
Kazuma’s underlying metrics suggest that he should keep hitting homers, but at an even higher rate.
He ranks in the top 30 among qualified hitters in barrel rate, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate. He ranks among the top 10 in pull rate.
Yes, he strikes out 32% of the time. But he’s the type of player who is actively attempting to hit home runs.
He faces Peter Lambert today, which should be a plus matchup.
Lambert’s allowed an above-average fly-ball rate this season, and his strikeout rate drops by six points against right-handed hitters compared to left-handed hitters. Even better, he’s only walked 1.7% of right-handed batters this season, meaning the chances of Okamoto putting a ball in play go way up.
Pick: Kazuma Okamoto Home Run (Bet at +360 on FanDuel)
Cubs vs Mets Props
I logged this play for yesterday’s game, but it was rained out. Luckily, the weather in Queens should be much better today.
Senga returned recently after missing a few weeks due to spine and arm injuries. While he got roughed up by the Reds, he still posted a 25% adjusted strikeout rate, which is right around what we should expect.
His forkball remains an elite putaway pitch, while his increased cutter usage against right-handed hitters should help maintain a high strikeout rate.
Moreover, this matchup sets up well for him.
Senga has pretty stark home/away and platoon splits. This will be just his third home start this season, and the Cubs should send up around six right-handed batters.
I project this prop around -140, but I like Senga’s upside.
Pick: Kodai Senga Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-135 or Better)
Red Sox vs Rockies Props
I’ve hit six of my past seven strikeout props, and this is my favorite one in weeks.
Sean Sullivan is a Colorado prospect who has made just two starts. While it’s a small sample size, my expected strikeout model pegs him for a 9.3% rate, which is even lower than his actual 11.4% rate.
I can’t remember a time I’ve seen an expected strikeout rate that low.
Sullivan’s four-seam fastball clocks in at just 88.5 MPH on average — he’s clearly more of a finesse pitcher. But he also tends to throw strikes at a high rate and initiate early contact (just a 10% whiff rate).
Even worse for him, both of his first two starts were on the road, and he might throw just 80 pitches in this start.
I project this prop closer to -220.
Pick: Sean Sullivan Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-210 or Better)
