The Cincinnati Reds host the New York Mets on June 17, 2026. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is scheduled for 12:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on CINR.
The Mets are favored by -136 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Reds are +116 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Mets vs Reds prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Mets vs Reds Prediction
- Mets vs Reds Pick: Mets ML (-140 or Better)
My Mets vs Reds best bet is on the Mets to win. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Reds Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +118 | 9 -106o / -114u | -136 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -142 | 9 -106o / -114u | +116 |
- Mets vs Reds moneyline: Mets -136, Reds +116
- Mets vs Reds over/under: 9 (-106 / -114)
- Mets vs Reds spread: Mets -1.5 (+118), Reds +1.5 (-142)
Mets vs Reds Probable Pitchers
| Nolan McLean (RHP, NYM) | Stat | Nick Lodolo (LHP, CIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | W-L | 2-1 |
| 1.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.1 |
| 4.01 / 3.37 | ERA / xERA | 5.21 / 6.14 |
| 3.69 / 3.53 | FIP / xFIP | 6.07 / 5.09 |
| 18.0% | K-BB% | 8.8% |
| 46.8% | GB% | 39.7% |
| .264 | BABIP | .291 |
| 108 | Stuff+ | 107 |
| 96 | Location+ | 90 |
Mets vs Reds MLB Betting Preview
This game activated one of our Action PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams:
The Road Tilt in the Dead Heat system targets MLB regular-season games in which two evenly matched teams (based on win percentage) meet in a non-division setting, with one quietly priced as a modest road favorite.
When there's no clear performance gap, but the market still tilts slightly toward the road team, it suggests underlying confidence from oddsmakers that may not be reflected in public perception.
This model seizes those subtle cues, leaning into the narrow value created by near-identical records and overlooked road strength.
Mets vs Reds Pick, Betting Analysis
After blow-up starts against the Nationals and Reds, Nolan McLean has settled back into a groove, tossing 15 innings of four-run ball over his past three starts.
I'm not necessarily a big fan of McLean, mostly because I think he has really spotty command. But the numbers don't lie, and McLean sports plenty of metrics that indicate an above-average starting pitcher (18% K-BB, 3.53 xFIP, 108 Stuff+).
Meanwhile, Nick Lodolo just doesn't look right. He's been a disaster since returning from the IL. He had a blister issue on his throwing hand, and his command has been way off since returning, which really shows up in his walk rate (9%) and batted-ball profile (40% hard-hit rate, 10% barrel rate).
I don't rate these two lineups much differently, although Elly De La Cruz's injury helps the Mets a bit. Of greater importance, the Mets sport a top-10 bullpen, while I think the Reds have the worst bullpen in baseball.
Ultimately, I think the Mets earn a road victory behind a significant pitching advantage across all nine innings.
Pick: Mets ML (-140 or Better)
