Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Tuesday, April 7.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Tuesday, I preview Royals-Guardians, Orioles-White Sox, Padres-Pirates, Brewers-Red Sox, and Tigers-Twins.
My projections for every MLB game on Tuesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Tuesday.
MLB Predictions, Picks
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+138, 0.5u), BallyBet, bet to +125
- Astros/Rockies, Over 10.5 (-105, 0.5u), Caesars, bet to -115
- Brewers/Red Sox, Under 7 (-113, 0.5u), BallyBet, bet to 6.5 (-110)
- Boston Red Sox (-150, 0.5u), ScoreBet, bet to -165
- Detroit Tigers (-165, 0.75u, ScoreBet), bet to -180
- Los Angeles Dodgers F5 (-135, 0.25u), DraftKings, bet to -160
- Orioles/White Sox, Under 7 (-108, 0.5u), BallyBet, bet to -122
- Padres/Pirates, Under 6.5 (-110, 0.5u), ScoreBet, bet to 6 (+100)
- Reds/Marlins, Over 7 (-115, 0.5u), Caesars, bet to -122
- Royals/Guardians, Under 7 (-115, 0.5u), FanDuel, bet to 6.5 (-110)
- St. Louis Cardinals (-105, 0.5u), DraftKings, bet to -110
Royals vs. Guardians Over/Under Picks
There are several games with pitcher-friendly weather on Tuesday, including all three afternoon matchups in Cleveland, the South Side of Chicago, and Queens.
Progressive Field arguably has the worst forecast of any park on the slate — 30 degrees at first pitch, with 10-12 mph winds blowing in from left-center. I would project this total closer to 8 on a weather-neutral day, but the weather adjustment brought my model projection down closer to 6.
The primary concern for betting the under is an overworked Royals bullpen behind Noah Cameron. You may see Daniel Lynch (career 4.96 xERA, 4.71 xFIP, 9.8% K-BB%) here in multi-inning relief as needed.
Pick: Under 7 (6.5, -110 or better)
Orioles vs. White Sox Total Picks
The forecast in Chicago is comparably offense-neutralizing to the one in Cleveland (37 degrees, 10-12 mph winds blowing in from center field), lowering my projected total more than two full runs from around 8.4 on a weather-neutral day at Rate Field to 6.22 for Tuesday.
I also think Trevor Rogers (4.10 weighted FIP) is generally underprojected. Forecasts are baking in too much of his early career sample (4.08 xERA, 4.01 xFIP, 14.5% career K-BB%), and are failing to count for his revamped mechanics that have produced a 1.76 ERA, 3.34 xERA, 3.74 xFIP, and 16.2% K-BB% since the start of last season.
Both bullpens in this matchup are also much more well-rested than the relievers on both sides of the Royals-Twins game.
Pick: Under 7 (-122 or better)
Padres vs. Pirates Over/Under Prediction
The Pirates don't play until Tuesday evening, but conditions will be similarly suppressive for offense at PNC Park as the other midwest and northeast Tuesday games — 43 degrees at first pitch and into the 30s by midgame.
The wind is blowing out to right field, which reduced my downward projected weather adjustment relative to the above-mentioned games.
However, I would still have made this game around 7 on a weather-neutral day and set it closer to 5.75 with an excellent pitching matchup in cold weather.
Pick: Under 6.5 (6, +100 or better)
Brewers vs. Red Sox Moneyline & Over/Under Picks
Our final weather-oriented Under comes in Boston, with temperatures at 37 degrees by game time and minimal wind effect expected on Tuesday night.
I would have set this total around 7.6 on a weather-neutral day at Fenway, but the model projection fell below 6 after applying my weather adjustment.
I also project a moneyline edge on the Red Sox in this matchup, even though Garrett Crochet saw a slight velocity dip (on the road in a dome) in his last outing against the Astros in Houston.
There is strong evidence to suggest that colder temperatures negatively affect both pitch velocity and swing speed. So hopefully Crochet — who has previously pitched in colder temperatures in both Boston and Chicago — can right himself in more frigid temperatures (81 degrees for his opening day start in Cincinnati) on Tuesday.
Pick: Red Sox ML (-165 or better) | Under 7 (6.5, -110 or better)
Tigers vs. Twins Moneyline Picks
Taj Bradley has thrown the ball well through two starts this season (3.73 xERA, 3.51 xFIP, 18.6% K-BB%).
However, even if he maintains an above-average level of quality, it still pales in comparison to his opponent and two-time reigning AL Cy Young winner, Tarik Skubal (2.71 xERA, 2.66 XFIP, 27.8% K-BB% in 2025).
Additionally, the Twins' bullpen is also far more taxed than the Tigers', as they have used Kody Funderburk, Anthony Banda, and Cody Laweryson three times in four days, and Taylor Rogers, Eric Ozre, and Justin Topa are also marked as fatigued but available, given their recent usage.
Conversely, only Drew Anderson should be out for the Tigers.
Pick: Tigers ML (-180 or Better)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, April 7
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+138, 0.5u), BallyBet, bet to +125
- Astros/Rockies, Over 10.5 (-105, 0.5u), Caesars, bet to -115
- Brewers/Red Sox, Under 7 (-113, 0.5u), BallyBet, bet to 6.5 (-110)
- Boston Red Sox (-150, 0.5u), ScoreBet, bet to -165
- Detroit Tigers (-165, 0.75u, ScoreBet), bet to -180
- Los Angeles Dodgers F5 (-135, 0.25u), DraftKings, bet to -160
- Orioles/White Sox, Under 7 (-108, 0.5u), BallyBet, bet to -122
- Padres/Pirates, Under 6.5 (-110, 0.5u), ScoreBet, bet to 6 (+100)
- Reds/Marlins, Over 7 (-115, 0.5u), Caesars, bet to -122
- Royals/Guardians, Under 7 (-115, 0.5u), FanDuel, bet to 6.5 (-110)
- St. Louis Cardinals (-105, 0.5u), DraftKings, bet to -110
