Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Ryan Minion has that job for Wednesday, June 17.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- CJ Abrams Over 1.5 HRR (-157)
- CJ Abrams Home Run (+470)
- Rays vs Dodgers NRFI (+142)
- Angels vs Diamondbacks NRFI (+114)
- Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 HRR (-145)
- Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
- Braves ML
- Michael Harris Over 1.5 Total Bases
- Guardians F5 ML (-106)
- Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 Total Bases (+119)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong Stolen Base (+225)
- Bryan Reynolds Over 2.5 Total Bases (+195)
- Bryan Reynolds Home Run (+360)
Royals vs Nationals Picks
The Nationals will host the Royals on Wednesday afternoon in the last of a three-game homestand at Nationals Park.
Right-hander Zack Littell will take the mound for the Nationals, while the Royals will trot out 24-year-old righty Luinder Avila in a pitching matchup that could deliver a ton of offense given the two’s struggles on the mound this season.
Despite starting the season as a reliever out of the Royals’ bullpen, Avila has made four consecutive starts for Kansas City.
While the Venezuelan allowed five earned runs across his first 14 frames as a starter, he got absolutely rocked in his last time out, having surrendered eight runs to the Astros in less than an inning on the mound.
The 24-year-old’s last appearance was one of several horrific outings that have largely inflated his pitching metrics across the board, with Avila now having recorded a 6.19 ERA and 1.80 WHIP on the season thus far.
Like Avila, Littell has also had a rather troublesome start to his 2026 season, with the right-hander having recorded a 5.32 ERA mark across 66 innings of work with an extremely low strikeout rate as well.
While Littell has been far from reliable in 2026, he has an impressive history against this Royals lineup, which makes me favor targeting some Nationals player prop markets.
For my first betting angle ahead of Wednesday afternoon’s contest, I will be looking to back Nationals’ shortstop CJ Abrams to have a massive day at the plate.
The former reliever is renowned for an impressive off-speed arsenal featuring a high-spin curveball and an effective sinker, but has struggled mightily with command and has struggled with left-handed batters, allowing a higher on-base percentage and more hard-hit rates.
Abrams is having himself a breakout 2026 campaign with the Nationals, ranking fourth in all of baseball at 24 with 53 RBIs on the season.
Washington’s young superstar feasts on right-handed pitching and excels at squaring up fastballs and breaking pitches over the plate.
That said, I favor backing Abrams to exceed his 1.5 HRR (Hits + Runs + RBIs) mark in a game I expect the basepaths to be frequently occupied.
Given Avila’s susceptibility to damage from left-handed hitters, I am willing to take a shot on the Nats’ youngster to crush a homer on Wednesday afternoon as well.
Picks:
- CJ Abrams Over 1.5 HRR
- CJ Abrams Home Run
Rays vs Dodgers Picks
The Dodgers and Rays will square off on Wednesday night in the last of a three-game set at Dodger Stadium.
In what will definitely be the premier pitching matchup on the slate, Dodgers’ superstar Shohei Ohtani will look to continue his quest for a first National League Cy Young Award in what has been a remarkable return to the mound in 2026.
Like Ohtani, Rays’ Shane McClanahan has also reverted to his previous elite form on the mound after having dealt with injuries that kept him off the mound for several years.
Ohtani has posted an extraordinary 1.06 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP over nearly 68 frames.
While McClanahan has not been quite as dominant as his counterpart, he has posted an impressive 3.23 ERA on the season and has been remarkably efficient with a 1.17 WHIP.
Given the scorching form of both starting pitchers heading into Wednesday night’s interleague clash, I favor there to be no runs scored in the first inning of this matchup.
Pick:
- NRFI
Angels vs Diamondbacks Picks
The Angels and Diamondbacks will duke it out on Wednesday afternoon in the last of a three-game set at Chase Field.
Eduardo Rodriguez will take the mound for Arizona, while the Halos will send out Italian youngster Sam Aldegheri in what sets up to be a great lefty pitching duel to close out this interleague series.
Rodriguez is off to a phenomenal first season with the Diamondbacks, having recorded a stellar 2.55 ERA on the season in over 81 frames, which ranks eighth amongst all starting pitchers.
Like Rodriguez, Aldegheri has been remarkable as well in just his third season pitching in the Major Leagues. In five appearances, he boasts an exceptional 2.12 ERA mark on the season across 17 frames.
Given the elite form of both pitchers heading into this matchup, I favor backing there to be no runs scored in the first inning of Wednesday afternoon’s interleague clash.
Pick:
- NRFI
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Picks
The Red Sox will host their divisional foe, the Toronto Blue Jays, on Wednesday evening to conclude their series at Fenway Park.
Future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer will take the mound for the Jays, while Jake Bennett is set to start for the Sox.
Scherzer is off to an atrocious start to his 2026 campaign in what will undoubtedly be the final season for Scherzer pitching in the Big Leagues, as Father Time appears to be finally impacting him.
While he has made just six starts this season, Scherzer has recorded an abysmal 10.23 ERA to go along with a 1.73 WHIP across 22 frames on the bump.
Given Scherzer’s sizable struggles on the mound in 2026, I'm targeting a pair of Red Sox player props.
I think Red Sox OF Ceddanne Rafaela could have a massive day at the plate.
In three career at-bats against Scherzer, the Red Sox youngster has recorded two hits, one of which was a double. While the sample is small, I feel Rafaela could have a definitive edge over the veteran.
Rafaela boasts impressive discipline in the box and elite contact rates, especially against four-seam fastballs over the heart of the plate.
While Scherzer’s off-speed arsenal has been quite reliable in the past, generating whiffs, he has really struggled with command in 2026, which could prove fatal against an elite contact profile like that of Rafaela.
Though Rafaela struggled at the plate to start this season, he now ranks inside the top-25 in all of baseball in batting average at .286 and has recorded eight RBIs over his last four games.
In a matchup featuring two players headed in opposite directions, I feel great backing the Sox 25-year-old to exceed his 1.5 HRR mark, as I expect runners to frequent the base paths considering Scherzer's vast troubles.
In addition to backing Rafaela to exceed his 1.5 HRR mark, I'm also picking him to soar over his 1.5 TB mark as well.
Picks:
- Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 HRR
- Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 Total Bases
Giants vs Braves Picks
The Braves will host the Giants on Wednesday night to conclude their series at Truist Park.
Righty JR Ritchie will make the start for Atlanta, while left-hander Robbie Ray will take the mound for the visiting Giants.
Ritchie is off to a phenomenal start to his rookie campaign, having recorded a rather impressive 3.82 ERA through six appearances and over 30 frames on the mound thus far in 2026.
While he enters this matchup in stellar form, the same can't be said for Ray, who is 4-6 on the season, while posting a concerning 4.42 ERA along with a 1.39 WHP.
Despite Ronald Acuña having just hit the shelf with a left hamstring sprain, I still love the Braves in this spot at home, with a massive pitching edge.
I'm targeting the Braves on the moneyline to reign supreme in Wednesday night’s National League showdown.
Additionally, I will be looking to target some Atlanta player props to take further advantage of Ray’s struggles on the mound thus far in 2026. In particular, I love Braves’ OF Michael Harris to thrive.
While Ray has relied on his four-seam fastball in the past, he has recorded just an 18 WHF% and a .375 xwOBA despite throwing this pitch at an over 43% clip according to BARTOLO.
Though Ray typically has a platoon advantage over left-handed hitters, he has struggled mightily with command, often falling behind in the count. That has ultimately forced him to throw safer pitches over the plate to get strikes.
Harris consistently boasts elite exit velocities and crushes breaking balls left over the plate, which could surely pose some problems for Ray if he gets ahead of the count.
In three prior at-bats versus the Giants’ righty, Harris has recorded two hits, one of which was a three-run homer off of Ray’s knuckle-curve — which has resulted in opposing hitters generating a .421 xwOBA thus far in 2026.
I like Harris to exceed his total bases prop
Picks:
- Braves ML
- Michael Harris Over 1.5 Total Bases
Guardians vs Brewers Picks
The Brewers will host the Guardians on Wednesday night at American Family Field.
Brandon Sproat will take the mound for the Brew Crew, while Cleveland trots out righty Gavin Williams in what should be a considerable pitching edge over Milwaukee.
While Williams has posted a 3.32 ERA and 1.10 WHIP this season, Sproat has been atrocious in 13 appearances, with a 5.70 ERA over 60 innings.
That said, I will be taking a more unique betting approach by constructing a same-game parlay to extract maximum value.
For the front leg of our SGP, I favor targeting the Guardians on their first-five (F5) moneyline, given their massive starting-pitching advantage.
If you have read any of my previous SGP articles, you would know I typically favor backing two negatively correlated wagers, which in turn generate far more value on the back end given the inverse relationship between the two parlay legs.
Moreover, I'm backing Brewers’ Jackson Chourio to continue his scorching form at the plate since returning from a small hairline fracture that he suffered during a World Baseball Classic exhibition game.
Since returning from the shelf, Chourio has arguably been the best hitter in baseball over the last three weeks.
He is batting .322 and has smashed five homers over the Brewers’ last five games, and has also recorded 16 hits in their last seven.
In 2025, Chourio established himself as one of the most talented and versatile players on the planet and has quickly reverted to his elite form at the plate.
I will be backing Chourio to exceed his 1.5 Total Base mark on Wednesday night in what should be another massive performance at the plate.
SGP:
- Guardians F5 ML
- Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 TB
Rockies vs Cubs Picks
The Cubs will host the Rockies on Wednesday at Wrigley Field.
Rockies' left-hander Sean Sullivan will be making just his second career appearance thus far after having dazzled in his debut with three scoreless innings.
The Cubs plan to send righty Javier Assad, who has made appearances on the mound both as a starter and in relief over his last few seasons pitching in the Big Leagues.
While the sample on the Rockies’ Sullivan is quite small, Assad has recorded a 3.99 ERA to go along with a 1.02 WHIP in over 38 innings pitched this season.
Despite having been used in relief to kick off this season, Assad has recorded consecutive quality starts over his last two appearances.
Across his last two starts, Assad did not surrender a single earned run, while also allowing just four hits and fanning 10 batters.
While both starting pitchers in this matchup are coming off extremely impressive outings, it is unclear how many innings each will pitch, which makes me more inclined to back a player prop rather than a side ahead of Wednesday’s National League clash.
I feel great backing Cubs' Pete Crow-Armstrong to have another massive day at the plate after having hit for the cycle on Monday night.
Crow-Armstrong is one of the hottest hitters in baseball, having recorded 24 hits across 55 plate appearances this month.
The Cubs’ youngster has already smashed six homers over two weeks into June, also having recorded nine RBIs and four stolen bases.
After an exceptional 2025 campaign for Crow-Armstrong, he has picked up right where he left off and has undoubtedly established himself as one of the premier players in the MLB just a few years into his Big League career.
As my primary betting angle ahead of Wednesday night’s clash, I favor backing Crow-Armstrong to continue his scorching form at the plate and to exceed his 1.5 Total Base mark.
Also, I'm willing to take a shot on Crow-Armstrong recording a stolen base as well.
Picks:
- Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 Total Bases
- Pete Crow-Armstrong Stolen Base
Pirates vs Athletics Picks
The Athletics will host the Pirates on Wednesday night at their temporary home at Sutter Health Park in Sacramento.
While Coors Field has reigned supreme as baseball’s top hitter-friendly park for years, Sutter Health is giving it a run for its money, having allowed over 16 runs per game thus far.
Though player prop markets have since adjusted to these favorable hitting conditions, I still feel there is significant value in targeting them.
Athletics’ right-hander Aaron Civale will take the mound after having missed the last three weeks of play, having been placed on the IL with right shoulder tendonitis.
Even before hitting the shelf, Civale had surrendered 12 earned runs across his last ten innings.
Given the favorable ballpark conditions and the fact that Civale is making his first start since returning from the IL, I will be looking to target Pittsburgh OF Bryan Reynolds to have a massive game at the plate.
Reynolds and Civale have already faced one another 20 times, with Reynolds having smashed two homers off him.
Civale’s pitching arsenal largely focuses on a cutter-heavy approach, which typically sits around 88 MPH on average.
According to BARTOLO, Civale throws his cutter at a very high clip at 35.5%.
Though the Athletics’ veteran typically favors using his cutter to retire batters by getting opposing hitters to chase pitches out of the zone, BARTOLO indicates that Civale is generating just a 22% whiff rate and an extremely high 45% hard-hit rate.
Reynolds is exceptional at handling middle-in pitches and boasts strong barrel rates and elite exit velocities against such pitches.
Given his extended time off the mound and his first outing happening at an extremely hitter-friendly park, I expect Civale to have command issues, which could result in Reynolds ripping one if he hangs his cutter or a curveball over the heart of the plate.
That said, I'll be targeting the Pirates’ slugger to record at least three total bases and a homer.
Picks:
- Bryan Reynolds Over 2.5 Total Bases
- Bryan Reynolds Home Run
Minion's MLB Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, June 17
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- CJ Abrams Over 1.5 HRR (-157)
- CJ Abrams Home Run (+470)
- Rays vs Dodgers NRFI (+142)
- Angels vs Diamondbacks NRFI (+114)
- Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 HRR (-145)
- Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
- Braves ML
- Michael Harris Over 1.5 Total Bases
- Guardians F5 ML (-106)
- Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 Total Bases (+119)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong Stolen Base (+225)
- Bryan Reynolds Over 2.5 Total Bases (+195)
- Bryan Reynolds Home Run (+360)
