Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Ryan Minion has that job for Wednesday, July 1.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Rangers vs Guardians NRFI
- Tigers vs Yankees NRFI
- Tigers vs Yankees F5 Under
- Willson Contreras Over 1.5 TB
- Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 HRR
- Manny Machado Over 1.5 TB
- Manny Machado Home Run
- Mets F5 ML
- Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 HRR
- Pirates vs Phillies NRFI
- Braves ML
- Cardinals vs Braves NRFI
- Junior Caminero Over 1.5 TB
- Junior Caminero Over 1.5 Hits
- Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 TB
- Jackson Chourio Over 2.5 HRR
Rangers vs Guardians Picks
The Guardians will host the Rangers on Wednesday afternoon in the last of a three-game homestand at Progressive Field in Cleveland. The 26-year-old left-hander Joey Cantillo will take the mound for the Guardians, while lefty Mackenzie Gore is set to start for the visiting Rangers.
Cantillo is having an excellent 2026 campaign, recording a 3.87 ERA and ranking among the top 40 qualified starters. He’s been a model of consistency.
On the other hand, Gore has been extremely volatile, which makes him a tough pitcher to handicap. He has great strikeout stuff, but his 4.05 ERA is a cause for concern.
That said, Gore should have a platoon advantage against a Cleveland lineup that features several lefty bats, and I think that’ll be enough for him to post a solid start on Wednesday afternoon.
Given Cantillo’s elite form and Gore’s slight edge as a lefty starter, I like the NRFI.
Picks: NRFI
Tigers vs Yankees Picks
The Tigers and Yankees will square off on Wednesday afternoon at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx in what will conclude a three-game series between the American League foes. Will Warren will start for New York, while Troy Melton will start for Detroit.
Warren has posted a 3.75 ERA across his 16 starts this season, although most know he’s a solid starting pitcher.
What most might not know is that Melton has been elite across his first six starts, pitching to a 2.39 ERA and 0.85 WHIP across 38 frames. It’s a small sample size, but he was good last year (2.76 ERA, 1.01) and has been dominant in the Minors, so I don’t think it’s a fluke.
Given the form of both starting pitchers, I’m banking on a very low-scoring affair, at least through five innings.
Picks: NRFI | F5 Under
Nationals vs Red Sox Picks
The Nationals and the Red Sox will square off on Wednesday afternoon in the last of a three-game set at Fenway Park in Boston.
I’m especially excited for this southpaw pitching matchup between Payton Tolle and Andrew Alvarez.
Tolle has been dominant on the bump for Boston, running a 2.78 ERA and 1.02 WHIP across 71 frames.
Alvarez hasn’t been quite as good, but he’s running a 3.44 ERA. That said, his sample size has been really small (36 innings), so his metrics might be misleading. Additionally, Alvarez relies heavily on his off-speed arsenal, which could hurt him if he continues to struggle with command (10% walk rate).
Therefore, I think the best approach to this game is to target some Red Sox player props. This could be a tough road start for Alvarez, especially in a hitter-friendly park like Fenway.
Alvarez’s best pitch is his curveball, which he throws around 30% of the time and has a 33% whiff rate. But his main secondary offering is his slider (27% usage), which has allowed a whopping .363 xwOBA.
That leaves him vulnerable to a hitter like Willson Contreras, who is slugging over .500 against sliders with a +5 Run Value.
Contreras is a patient hitter who lays off stuff out of the zone and works the count well, and I think that’ll force Alvarez to leave a slider over the heart of the plate, where he might pay the ultimate price.
Picks: Willson Contreras Over 1.5 TB
Padres vs Cubs Picks
The Padres and Cubs will duke it out on Wednesday afternoon at Wrigley Field in a National League showdown that I expect to deliver plenty of offense, especially with this lackluster pitching matchup.
Colin Rea has pitched to a 4.80 ERA and 1.41 WHIP through 17 starts. He hasn’t been good, and I don’t expect improvement in the near future.
Meanwhile, Walker Buehler has bounced back from a tough start to the season, but this could be a tricky road start against a Cubs lineup with plenty of firepower.
Also, the weather report is calling for double-digit winds blowing straight out to center field, which will only help the hitters I’ll be betting on in the player prop markets.
My first bet will be on Pete Crow-Armstrong, who is scorching at the plate and now leads all MLB hitters in fWAR (4.9).
Buehler is now mainly relying on his cutter (24% usage rate), and he’s lost some velocity on his fastballs over the past few years (primarily due to injuries), so he’s begun throwing a lot more secondary stuff.
Meanwhile, PCA has shortened his swing path and dropped his hands more, helping him catch up to high fastballs while staying on breaking pitches over the plate. These subtle changes have also really helped his batted-ball profile, especially against right-handed pitchers.
If Buehler leaves anything over the plate, PCA could do some serious damage.
I’ll also be backing Manny Machado, primarily because he’s already 3-for-6 lifetime against Rea, and that includes a home run.
Rea relies almost exclusively on his four-seam fastball, and it’s not exactly a dangerous one, averaging under 95 MPH while allowing a .371 xwOBA.
Meanwhile, Machado has done nothing but smash four-seam fastballs this year, posting a 55% hard-hit rate against the pitch.
I think Manny could smash a four-seam fastball over the fence in this one, especially with the wind at his back.
Picks: Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 HRR | Manny Machado Over 1.5 TB | Manny Machado Home Run
Mets vs Blue Jays Picks
The Blue Jays will host the Mets on Wednesday afternoon to close a three-game interleague series at the Rogers Centre. Patrick Corbin will take the mound for Toronto, while Freddy Peralta will toe the rubber for New York.
Despite Freddy’s struggles on the mound this season (4.53 ERA, worst since 2019), I think this could be a prime bounce-back spot for the former Brewer.
Meanwhile, I think Corbin will continue to regress. He’s now allowed 19 earned runs over his past 19 innings, bringing his season-long ERA up to 5.09.
Corbin has quite a history against these Mets, which is good when handicapping New York player props.
In 47 prior head-to-head plate appearances, Francisco Lindor has 14 hits with three homers.
Although he’s having a tough year (career-worst .679 OPS), he’s been hurt, and he’s too talented to continue that sluggish slash line.
Given Corbin’s struggles on the mound, I’m looking to fade him by backing Lindor specifically, and the Mets as a whole behind Peralta.
Picks: Mets F5 ML | Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 HRR
Pirates vs Phillies Picks
The Pirates and Phillies will duke it out on Wednesday evening in the third of a four-game set at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia.
In what is far-and-away the best starting-pitching matchup on the entire slate, Paul Skenes will face off against Zack Wheeler in a superstar showdown.
I will keep the analysis to a bare minimum. These are two of the most well-respected pitchers in the league. I expect runs to come at a premium, especially early.
Picks: NRFI
Cardinals vs Braves Picks
The Braves and Cardinals will square off on Wednesday evening in the second of a three-game set at Truist Park in Atlanta. Reynaldo Lopez will take the mound for Atlanta, while St. Louis will start Michael McGreevy.
This sets up to be a great pitching matchup. Both starters have sub-3.50 ERAs across the first half of the season.
Thus, I think we will see a clean first inning, although I expect the Braves to continue slugging at the plate and pull off a home win in this matchup.
Picks: Braves ML | NRFI
Rays vs Royals Picks
The Royals will host the Rays on Wednesday night in the second of a three-game homestand at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City. Seth Lugo will start for the Royals, while Shane McClanahan will take the mound for Tampa.
McClanahan has bounced back nicely this season, running a 3.30 ERA and 1.22 WHIP across 15 starts.
Meanwhile, Lugo has been as volatile as they come in his starts. While he has a vast arsenal, he sometimes struggles to command it, and his low-velocity stuff leaves him vulnerable to hard contact.
Thus, I’ll be looking toward Tampa player props.
In six prior head-to-head plate appearances against Lugo, Junior Caminero has three hits, including two home runs.
Caminero is one of the hottest hitters in baseball, having hit seven homers over his past eight games.
Lugo primarily relies on his sinker (20% usage rate), and it hasn’t been super effective (.420 xwOBA). Meanwhile, Caminero has done nothing but smash sinkers (.636 SLG, 48% hard-hit rate).
Caminero has one of the quicker and flatter swings in the league, which helps his bat stay in the zone for a long time. As a result, he can make solid contact against nearly any pitch type, regardless of location.
Junior should have another massive day at the plate on Wednesday.
Picks: Junior Caminero Over 1.5 TB | Junior Caminero Over 1.5 Hits
Reds vs Brewers Picks
The Brew Crew are set to host the Reds on Wednesday night in the third of a four-game set at American Family Field in Milwaukee.
Andrew Abbott will take the mound for Cincinnati, running a 3.90 ERA across 17 outings.
While Abbott is in decent form, I really like this matchup for Jackson Chourio.
Abbott relies almost exclusively on his four-seam fastball (47% usage), but without much success (12% whiff, .415 xwOBA), partially because he only throws it around 93 MPH on average.
Meanwhile, Chourio is an aggressive, swing-first, fastball-pounding hitter, so it’s no surprise that he’s 3-for-7 lifetime off Abbott.
I’m banking on him continuing that success in this matchup.
Picks: Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 TB | Jackson Chourio Over 2.5 HRR
Dodgers vs Athletics Picks
Let’s take a look at one last game.
The Dodgers visit Sacramento to play the A’s. JT Ginn will make the start for the home side, while we get another Shohei Ohtani start on the visiting side.
Ginn actually hasn’t been half-bad this season (83 IP, 3.15 ERA, 1.22 WHIP), but Ohtani is arguably the best pitcher in baseball (79 IP, 1.58 ERA, .90 WHIP).
Also, the Dodgers lineup is simply too good, and I think Ginn will struggle matching up with them in the hitting heaven that is Sutter Health Park.
I can’t help but take a shot with the Dodgers under these conditions. I expect a big road win.
Picks: Dodgers -1.5
Minion's MLB Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, July 1
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Rangers vs Guardians NRFI
- Tigers vs Yankees NRFI
- Tigers vs Yankees F5 Under
- Willson Contreras Over 1.5 TB
- Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 HRR
- Manny Machado Over 1.5 TB
- Manny Machado Home Run
- Mets F5 ML
- Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 HRR
- Pirates vs Phillies NRFI
- Braves ML
- Cardinals vs Braves NRFI
- Junior Caminero Over 1.5 TB
- Junior Caminero Over 1.5 Hits
- Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 TB
- Jackson Chourio Over 2.5 HRR
