Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Matt Trollo has that job for Thursday, May 28.
MLB Predictions, Picks for Thursday, May 28
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- White Sox -119, 1u (Bet to -130)
- Red Sox +118, 1u (Bet to -110)
- Braves/Red Sox Under 7.5 (-120), 1.2u (Bet to 7)
- Blue Jays +115, 0.5u (Bet to +105)
Angels @ Tigers Picks
Because there are only six games on Thursday, this is going to be a true slate breakdown with at least a little bit of something on every game, some more in-depth than others.
We start with a pair of struggling pitchers in an afternoon affair in Detroit.
After missing 22 months, Grayson Rodriguez is two starts back from Tommy John surgery with more barrels (four) plus walks (six) than strikeouts (nine).
While PitchingBot is more forgiving (4.14 Bot ERA), Pitching+ (91) only gives him credit for one above-average pitch, and that’s a 110 graded curveball that’s the least frequently thrown pitch in his arsenal (13.1%).
A 96 mph fastball with just 15 inches of iVB is really nothing more than an average fastball these days, and it’s not like you trust the Angels to get the most out of a developing pitcher (he's almost 27 already). Maybe the Orioles knew what they were doing.
Jack Flaherty’s K-BB has declined from 18.9% to 11.6% between 2025 and 2026. Coming off the worst contact profile of his career and somewhat maintaining it with reduced velocity (92.4 mph) isn’t the best career decision.
His 5.94 ERA is above all of his estimators, but by no more than a run and a half. This is disappointing, anyway you look at it.
The good news is he’ll face a predominantly right-handed (projected) LAA lineup with just a 93 wRC+ over the last 30 days. As a team, the Angels have just a 94 wRC+ vs RHP and Flaherty has been about 40 to 50 points better against RHBs.
Unfortunately, that still means a .344 wOBA this year.
If you’re thinking this sets up for an over, the Tigers have been a major disappointment this year, with their projected lineup sitting on a 75 wRC+ over the last 30 days. (Although Action Labs does show an early reverse line move on the over at 8.5.)
Both defenses and the LAA bullpen are terrible, however.
Unless something pops in the strikeout props, which are not yet posted, this is a pass for me.
Pick: Pass
Twins @ White Sox Picks
Taj Bradley was just pushed back a day, and the Twins have not yet named a replacement for this game. (Update just before posting: it's Kendrys Rojas with most projections in the low fours…as a reliever. He has a 45 Future Value grade via Fangraphs. Everything below still stands.)
Davis Martin was already pushed back a day for the White Sox to end up in this spot.
Very quickly, although you won’t be able to read it as quickly, I think the current -120 being floated by books is a mistake.
They may not have realized Bradley isn’t pitching or that Martin is pitching instead of Fedde here.
If you follow me in the app, first of all, I’m sorry for how the last week has transpired, and secondly, I posted this information right away so readers would be able to get on it before this is posted.
The Twins certainly don’t have anyone better than Bradley to replace him with, and I already saw minor value on that line even with him projected. (Rojas is not better than Bradley has been this year.)
Martin allowed three runs in five innings in his first start of the season and then came one out short of eight straight quality starts until his last start, where he gave up a season-high four runs.
Call me unconcerned because he still struck out seven (15.3 SwStr%) with two walks and not a single barrel. He did have a 58.8 HardHit%, though, also his worst since his first start.
Martin has a 27.9 K-BB% with a 15.2 SwStr% over his last six starts, which may suggest a breakout, but pitch modeling begs to differ. He has a 4.08 Bot ERA and 94 Pitching+ over this span that are only slightly better than his season and 2025 rates. PitchingBot only has him throwing one below-average pitch this year (slider 15.6% 43 PB).
Martin is now throwing six different pitches between 11.6% and 25.5% of the time, including all three fastballs.
Things are not as good as his 2.04 ERA (84.1 LOB%, 25% HR/Barrel), but his worst non-pitch modeling estimator is a 3.53 xERA with contact neutral indicators below three.
I give the Sox very slight offensive and defensive edges here, which could change with actual lineups, but over the last month, they also have bullpen estimators more than three-quarters of a run better than the Twins, who are second worst in the majors (4.41 FIP/5.01 xFIP/4.61 SIERA) and will likely be deep into that pen on Thursday.
I'd recommend the White Sox up to around -130 without knowing what the Twins have planned, though that announcement could make me comfortable going even higher.
Pick: White Sox -119, 1u (Bet to -130)
Braves @ Red Sox Picks
We’re double-dipping in Boston on Thursday, and if you didn’t like Tuesday’s coverage of the first game of this series, where the home team lost a nail-biter by one, this one may be just as crazy.
Chris Sale has been spectacular in 2026. Only his third of 10 starts was not a quality start and he’s only allowed more than one run one other time. He’s also completed seven innings in four of his last six starts.
Sale’s estimators, including pitch modeling, are tightly packed between a 2.83 SIERA and 3.04 dERA.
The .236 BABIP and 87 LOB% are regression-worthy, but we know who he is and rightfully fear facing him.
Payton Tolle has only thrown 53 major league innings, but we’re beginning to learn who he is, too, because he’s been almost as good as Sale.
He’s allowed two runs or less in four of six starts with no more than three, including seven and eight-inning outings, plus three starts of eight strikeouts or more.
The 21.4 K-BB% is elite. Tolle’s estimator range is a bit wider (2.12 xERA – 3.53 xFIP), but I only have his performance this season one-third of a run worse than Sale’s.
I’m not in love with xFIP as a tool because it assumes the same HR/FB rate for everyone and therefore punishes extreme fly ball pitchers. Tolle only has a 33 GB%, but with more popups (eight) than barrels (six). How can that be a bad thing?
On that alone, I might be aligned with the market and Sale as a small to moderate favorite, but facing LHPs puts Boston in their better split and Atlanta in their worst.
You see, Drake Baldwin was the top Brave against LHP this year with a wRC+ above 200 in 84 PAs.
Without him, the remaining projected lineup has just an 83 wRC+ vs LHP since last season and 70 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall.
The Red Sox have been awful at home (77 wRC+ not counting Wednesday), but have a 107 wRC+ against LHP this season, with the projected lineup at 104 against southpaws since last season and 112 over the last month overall.
As I mentioned on Tuesday, both teams have strong defenses and bullpens, but the projected Boston defense has an 11 Fielding Run Value edge with half a run better bullpen estimators over the last month.
This assumes Boston overcomes their odd recent Mickey Gasper obsession and goes with the superior defensive catcher (Narvaez) in a day game after a night game.
After a blowout on Wednesday, the Boston bullpen is well rested, too. Chapman and Whitlock haven’t pitched yet this week.
We’re also looking at a more pitcher-friendly forecast at Fenway on Thursday afternoon, one that could actually turn it into a slightly negative run environment, considering Statcast’s new 104 Park Run Factor.
Now that modest starting pitching edge doesn’t look like much for the road team.
I actually rate the F5 line slightly ahead of full game, but like this enough that I'd rather avoid than embrace the push potential.
Pick: Red Sox +118, 1u (Bet to -110), Under 7.5 (-120), 1.2u (Bet to 7)
Blue Jays @ Orioles Picks
The headline here is probably that I have Chris Bassitt (4.24 Bot ERA – 4.82 xERA) rated less than a quarter run better than Patrick Corbin (3.96 FIP – 5.35 xERA).
Yes, THAT Patrick Corbin.
The estimator range on Corbin is wider, with a 10 K-BB% and an unspectacular contact profile. His 3.85 ERA is driven by the fact that just 33% of his barrels have left the yard. You see it in the extremes with his FIP and xERA. That's what such a wide gap between those two indicators almost always means.
Since last season, RHBs have a .341 wOBA and .343 xwOBA against him.
Baltimore is likely to counter with Gunnar Henderson and eight RHBs, but only two of those projected (Coby Mayo 125, Taylor Ward 140) exceed a 110 wRC+ vs LHP since last year, and only two more reach 100.
Chris Bassitt has gone beyond five innings in just one of his last four starts and completed six innings just twice this year. He’s allowed at least three runs in six of 10 outings.
His 6.8 K-BB% is his worst since 2016, and he has a 5.51 ERA with only six barrels allowed (3.7%).
I don’t think that’s sustainable, but we think his .354 BABIP is going to regress. I say think because it’s up to .328 over the last three seasons. It's possible this is just the end.
And LHBs have just torched him for a .364 wOBA and .348 xwOBA since 2025. That’s up to a .401 wOBA just this year alone.
The Blue Jays are only likely to send up five LHBs against him, but also five batters with a wRC+ above 110 vs RHP since last season and only two below 98.
The Blue Jays gain back offensively the little that they lose in the starting pitching matchup.
Toronto also has a slight edge defensively (8 FRV), if projected lineups via Rotowire ring true, and half run better bullpen estimators over the last 30 days.
I don’t understand why they’re the dog here and see a playable edge down to about +105.
Pick: Blue Jays +115, 0.5u (Bet to +105)
Cubs @ Pirates Picks
After allowing at least four runs for the second straight start and fourth time this year, Paul Skenes sports an absolutely horrid 3.00 ERA, and it’s within 0.15 runs of all of his estimators except the xERA.
That xERA is just 2.34 because he’s only allowed a 34.6 HardHit% with 4.6% Barrels/BBE.
Relax. His 24.1 K-BB% is better than last year, though probably underrecognized because it's more due to fewer walks (3.9%) than more strikeouts.
The ground ball rate (42.4%) is a career low, and the velocity is down a mph from last year and 1.7 mph from his rookie season, but with his best Bot ERA (2.92)…and worst Pitching+ (112).
Ironically, Skenes is throwing his changeup more than ever (17%), but Pitching+ thinks it's worse than ever (84).
So maybe he’s not the best pitcher who ever lived and just a perennial Cy Young contender? The Pirates better sell high soon.
Or maybe a 3.00 ERA is just a bad couple of months for him.
This isn’t the best time and place for a much deeper dive on Skenes.
The Cubs (projected lineup 28 FRV) have the best defense in the league, but just a team 55 wRC+ over the last seven days going into Wednesday.
Pick: Pass
Astros @ Rangers Picks
Texas had the roof open a couple of times a few weeks ago, and I believe both games went over.
The reason I mention this is that it appeared to be in the 70s in Texas on Wednesday, but the roof was closed.
What’s the criteria for opening the roof? Does the starting pitcher (deGrom) have a say?
There’s an old story about Randy Johnson having a bad game with the roof open in Arizona and never allowing them to open it again when he was pitching again.
Anyway, SpAghetti has a 1.32 ERA and 14.3 BB%.
That’s because he has a .223 BABIP, 87.7 LOB% and 2.3 HR/FB with just one of six barrels landing on the other side of the wall.
He doesn’t have a non-FIP estimator within three runs of actual results.
A two-run shot surrendered to Mike Trout, the second batter of the game last time out, accounts for half the runs Nathan Eovaldi has allowed over his last 29 innings (22 K-BB%).
As long as we’re reminiscing, remember when the Red Sox signed him to that 4-year $68 million contract after they tried to blow his arm out in the World Series, and it was almost universally panned?
10.5 career K-BB% before that. 18.3% since and still going strong at 36 years old.
I've run out of words.
You can stop reading now.
Pick: Pass
Matt Trollo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Thursday, May 28
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- White Sox -119, 1u (Bet to -130)
- Red Sox +118, 1u (Bet to -110)
- Braves/Red Sox under 7.5 (-120), 1.2u (Bet to 7)
- Blue Jays +115, 0.5u (Bet to +105)
