Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Matt Trollo has that job for Saturday, June 27.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Pirates +100, 0.5u (Bet to -110)
- F.Griffin o6.5 Strikeouts +132, 0.5u (Bet to +115)
- Rockies/Twins over 9 (-110), 1.1u (Bet through 9.5)
- Y.Yamamoto o6.5 Strikeouts +124, 0.5u (Bet to +110)
Reds @ Pirates Picks
Chase Burns is having the breakout a lot of people expected in 2026. It’s not 2.00 ERA good because he won’t sustain a 93.4 LOB%, but his estimators form a tight range between 2.92 (xERA) and 3.32 (SIERA). We can certainly believe he’s that good.
Neither has Jared Jones been as bad as his 5.75 ERA in five starts back from Tommy John surgery. His .330 BABIP should reduce, though his range is still quite a bit higher and wider (3.82 deRA – 4.84 xERA).
There are some problems in the contact profile, though it’s not disastrous and he could be better going forward, but for now, I have a full run separating the two.
These teams also have very comparable below average defenses, or at least the teams they’re projected to field on Saturday do by FRV (Fielding Run Value).
However, everything else leans Pittsburgh’s way from baserunning (7 BRR gap between projected lineups) and bullpen (0.4 run gap between L30 day estimator average – FIP, xFIP, SIERA, BARTOLO’s gap is two teams and 0.13 runs depending on available relievers after Friday) to the largest Pirate edge of them all, offense.
When the Pirates finally spent a little bit of money this offseason to make some moderate upgrades, I don’t think anyone was expecting a 118 wRC+ at home and 114 wRC+ against RHP by the end of June, while their projected lineup with O’Neil Cruz still out, but Konnor Griffen back averages a 119 wRC+ against RHP and 132 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
That’s a far cry from Cincinnati’s 92 wRC+ on the road and 87 wRC+ against RHP. Their projected lineup has a 101 wRC+ against RHP this year, but just an 87 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
I have the gap between the two teams over 25 points of wRC+ on Saturday.
If Jones can keep his team in the game against a bad offense, the Pirates will have the advantage once the bullpen enters the game and I think that’s worth more than a break even proposition.
Picks: Pirates +100, 0.5u (Bet to -110)
Nationals @ Orioles Picks
Foster Griffin has been a terrific pickup for the Nationals with a 17.7 K-BB% and estimators averaging a bit below four.
He’s also coming off his best start of the season with a season high 7.1 innings pitched against the Phillies, tying a season high with nine strikeouts.
His number on FanDuel (the only site currently offering a K prop) is set at 6.5 with a generous +132 to the over, which may be reasonable considering he’s only beaten that number in five of 16 starts and not since May 14th before his last time out.
What Griffin has done is post a swinging strike rate above 11% in four of his last five starts, which suggests a strikeout rate closer to a quarter of batters faced, especially considering his above average 18.2 CStr% on the season.
Averaging 23 batters faced per start, though at least 24 in each of his last three starts, we would need Griffin to post a strikeout rate close to 30% to reach this number on Saturday, but there’s reason to think he may be able to pull that off.
To start with, Fangraphs, Rotowire and BARTOLO each project lineups including three LHBs (Gunnar Henderson, Samuel Basallo and Jackson Holliday), which means we’d expect him to see seven to eight LHBs in total and he’s already up near 30% against them (29.2% to be exact).
With Henderson’s 23 K% against LHP, Basallo’s 38.6% and Holliday’s 50%, there’s reason to suggest he may be even better.
While Griffin drops to 21% against RHBs, only one projected Oriole (Taylor Ward) strikes out less than that against LHP this year, which means we can boost that number a bit too.
Being in a situation (park, umpire, weather) that should round out to neutral for strikeouts on Saturday, I have Griffin getting there nearly half the time. It may still mean we lose a bit more often than we win, but the price certainly justifies it.
Picks: F.Griffin over 6.5 Strikeouts +132, 0.5u (Bet to +115)
Rockies @ Twins Picks
Played this one on Friday night with the bullpens coming through and I’m going back to the well on Saturday.
To begin with, Target Field is one of the higher run environments in the league, playing 6% above average on average with the forecast on Saturday suggesting we may even get an additional 1-2% bump before adding in a slightly hitter friendly umpire in Shane Livensparger that could get us to a near double digit boost before we even get to the participants.
Sure, Michael Lorenzon pitches in a terrible park with a .388 BABIP and 61.7 LOB% baring some of the blame for his 7.11 ERA.
That said, he still doesn’t have an estimator better than 4.35 (xFIP) with LHBs owning a legit .403 xwOBA against him this year.
I’d expect him to face a balanced lineup that includes five LHBs for the Twins, but RHBs also have a .341 wOBA and .324 xwOBA against him.
Meanwhile, the Twins have been slugging the ball with their projected lineup owning a 117 wRC+ and .197 ISO against RHP this season plus a 133 wRC+ over the last 30 days. In the latter category, Brooks Lee (96) is the only projected Twin below 110.
Mike Paredes doesn’t have a single estimator within half a run of his 4.05 ERA through his first 20 major league innings, which includes a 2.3 K-BB% and 47.6 HardHit%. His 4.65 xERA would be even worse if he didn’t somehow finagle just 3.2% Barrels/BBE out of a 41.9 GB%. Don’t expect that to continue.
It’s a small sample, but even BARTOLO gives him a 4.96 wFIP with a 4.54 projection.
Then we have to realize, as the market may not have yet, that this Colorado offense may be legitimate for the first time in a long time.
Their season marks of a 98 wRC+ on the road and 96 wRC+ against RHP may not be there yet, but they’ve been churning the lineup, as they should, under Paul DePodesta’s new leadership with the current projected lineup averaging a 114 wRC+ against RHP and 119 wRC+ over the last month.
The Colorado defense may be neutral, but the Minnesota defense has been bottom five in the league on a team basis via Runs Prevented and OAA with the projected lineup sitting at -12 FRV.
It doesn’t seem like we need any more help, but the bullpens should give it to us anyway. Both relief units sit in the bottom quarter of the league in average estimators (FIP, xFIP, SIERA) over the last 30 days at 4.67 (Twins) and 4.75 (Rockies), while BARTOLO rates both as bottom five bullpens on the season.
I’m almost considering more than one unit on this total at just 9.0. You may wonder if they're playing at Coors before this one is done.
Picks: Over 9 (-110), 1.1u (Bet through 9.5)
Dodgers @ Padres Picks
The workhorse of the Dodger rotation, Yoshinobu Yamamoto has faced at least 26 batters in five of his last six starts, striking out about a quarter of those batters with a 20.1 K-BB%, including eight Padres at the beginning of this stretch.
Notably, Yamamoto has struck out 28.1% of RHBs this year, while the San Diego lineup lacks LHBs. I’m projecting him to face only eight from the left side in total on Saturday, maybe nine if he goes through the lineup a full three times, which would certainly not be a bad thing for our purposes. That would leave 17-18 same-handed batters opposing him.
The Padres have gained a reputation for being contact prone in recent years, but that’s certainly not the case with this current version. The projected lineup is averaging a 22.5 K% against RHP with four of the first five in the order above that mark and only Tatis Jr. below (18.6%).
Lastly, we factor Petco Park into the mix, which gives Yamamoto a 3% boost on average, facing mostly RHBs, while scheduled umpire Quinn Wolcott boosts strikeouts another 3-4%.
In all, I have Yamamoto beating his 6.5 K prop about half the time, which is more than enough for a price of +124 (FanDuel).
Picks: Y.Yamamoto over 6.5 Strikeouts +124, 0.5u (Bet to +110)
Trollo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Saturday, June 27
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- Pirates +100, 0.5u (Bet to -110)
- F.Griffin o6.5 Strikeouts +132, 0.5u (Bet to +115)
- Rockies/Twins over 9 (-110), 1.1u (Bet through 9.5)
- Y.Yamamoto o6.5 Strikeouts +124, 0.5u (Bet to +110)
