Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Frank Ammirante has that job for Saturday, July 11.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- White Sox ML (-104)
- Yankees -1.5 (-113)
- Mariners vs Rays Under 7.5 (-118)
Athletics vs Chicago White Sox
The A's are one of the coldest teams in baseball right now. They're on a seven-game losing streak, dropping 11 of their last 12 games. They've scored two runs or fewer in five of their last six games. Simply put, this team badly needs the All-Star Break.
While the White Sox are starting Erick Fedde, there's a chance that he can give them five quality innings, given how poor the A's have been at the plate. It's encouraging to note that Fedde has given up three earned runs or fewer in four consecutive outings.
Gage Jump gets the start for the A's, which is why they're road favorites despite this cold streak. On paper, Jump gives the A's the edge on the mound over Fedde. However, the rookie lefty has struggled mightily in his last two outings, allowing a combined 11 earned runs in only 7.2 innings. Perhaps he's getting a bit gassed as he gets more big league innings under his belt.
With the A's cold at the plate, Fedde in a decent rhythm, and Jump struggling, getting the White Sox as home underdogs looks quite appealing.
Pick: White Sox ML (-104)
Yankees vs Nationals Picks
The Yankees have gotten slightly back on track, winning each of their last two games. They're in a good spot to extend their winning streak to three games because of their massive edge on the mound for Saturday.
AL Cy Young frontrunner Cam Schlittler is on the bump for the Yankees. He's coming off a dominant outing against the Rays, where he pitched eight strong innings, allowing one earned run with zero walks and eight strikeouts.
The Nationals are countering with Miles Mikolas, who has given up a combined 13 earned runs in 13 innings in his last two outings.
There's a good chance that this game turns into a blowout with such a pitching mismatch, which is why I'm backing the Yankees to win by 2+ runs here.
Pick: Yankees -1.5 (-113)
Mariners vs Rays Picks
The Mariners vs Rays Under 7.5 feels like a good look because of the pitching matchup. Seattle sends out Logan Gilbert, who is on quite a roll right now, allowing a combined seven earned runs in his last five starts, spanning 33.2 innings.
During this stretch, Gilbert has an elite 32-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
On the other side, Griffin Jax is similarly in a nice rhythm, allowing a combined eight earned runs in his last six starts, spanning 31 innings. In this sample, Jax has a 32-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
I'm targeting the full game Under because we get it at 7.5. If I go with the first five innings, it will be at 3.5, which feels too low. Getting above seven runs on this line is great because we still win if it's a close game with a 4-3 score line. We'll ride with a pitcher's duel in this one.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-118)
Ammirante's MLB Picks and Predictions for Saturday, July 11
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- White Sox ML (-104)
- Yankees -1.5 (-113)
- Mariners vs Rays Under 7.5 (-118)
