Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Ryan Minion has that job for Sunday, June 28.
For what it's worth, Minion has posted an 89-69-2 record through 12 editions of The Leadoff on Wednesdays and Sundays, good for 38.3 units of profit.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 HRR (-160)
- Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 Total Bases (-140)
- Jake Burger Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115)
- Rays F5 ML (-188)
- Junior Caminero Over 1.5 Hits (+175)
- Astros F5 ML (-150)
- Mariners vs Guardians NRFI (-146)
- Rockies vs Twins Over (+102)
- Byron Buxton Over 1.5 Total Bases (-118)
- Byron Buxton Home Run (+240)
- Nick Kurtz Over 2.5 HRR (-155)
- Braves ML (-156)
- Braves -1.5 (+112)
- Michael Harris Over 1.5 HRR (-110)
- Padres F5 ML (+108)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Single (-120)
Reds vs Pirates Picks
The Pirates will host the Reds on Sunday afternoon in the last of a three-game homestand at PNC Park in Pittsburgh. 30-year-old right-hander Mitch Keller will take the mound for the Pirates, while the Reds plan to trot out righty Brady Singer.
In what has been a very up-and-down 2026 campaign for both starters thus far, I expect Sunday’s contest to deliver plenty of runs.
So, I’m looking toward the player prop markets.
Keller is really struggling, running a 4.89 ERA through 16 outings this season — it’s his worst season since 2021.
He’s also faced this Reds lineup more than a few times, as these teams are divisional rivals. So, we have a solid sample size to consider when handicapping this clash.
Though Elly De La Cruz has just three hits across 19 head-to-head at-bats against Keller, I still think he’s in for a massive day at the plate.
Keller leans primarily on his four-seam fastball, which he throws over 32% of the time. He’s lost some stuff and velocity on the pitch over the past few years, leading to a steady decline in his swing-and-miss rate on the pitch.
While De La Cruz can be strikeout-prone, Keller doesn’t miss as many bats as he used to, which could hurt against an elite fastball slugger. De La Cruz has big-time power from both sides of the plate, especially when high-velocity pitches are left in the zone.
If De La Cruz can stay disciplined at the plate against Keller’s breaking stuff, he should see some hittable in-the-zone fastballs, cashing some props along the way.
Picks: Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 HRR (-160)
Nationals vs Orioles Picks
The Nationals and Orioles duke it out on Sunday afternoon to conclude a three-game set in Baltimore. Kyle Bradish will start for the home team, while Zack Littell will take the mound for the visiting side.
In 75 frames this year, Littell is running a 5.40 ERA. He’s been atrocious, and I’m looking to fade him by betting on the Orioles player prop market.
In 26 head-to-head at-bats against Littell, Gunnar Henderson has eight hits, including two doubles and two home runs.
Littell throws a lot of off-speed and breaking pitches in the zone, which can leave him vulnerable to a hitter like Henderson, who smashes secondary stuff (he’s actually struggled more against fastballs this season).
Henderson is starting to find his form at the plate, and he could have another massive day in this contest.
Picks: Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 Total Bases (-140)
Rangers vs Blue Jays Picks
The Blue Jays will host the Rangers on Sunday afternoon in the last of a four-game homestand at Rogers Centre in Toronto. Kumar Rocker will start for Texas, while former Cy Young winner Shane Bieber will start for Toronto.
This is another matchup where I’m looking at some hitting props.
Bieber isn’t the guy he was once. He got lit up in his Minor League rehab starts (6.88 ERA across 17 innings) before allowing four earned runs across 3 ⅔ frames in his 2026 MLB debut against Houston. He's seemingly developed a huge home run problem, allowing four across his five MiLB starts before allowing three five days ago against the Astros.
Meanwhile, in five previous head-to-head plate appearances against Bieber, Jake Burger has recorded two hits, including a two-run home run.
This is likely to be another shaky start for Bieber, and I think Burger can take advantage.
Picks: Jake Burger Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Diamondbacks vs Rays Picks
The Rays and Diamondbacks will square off on Sunday afternoon in the last of a three-game set at Tropicana Field. Drew Rasmussen will start for Tampa, while Merrill Kelly will start for the Snakes.
Rasmussen looks good! Across 88 frames, he’s recorded a 2.62 ERA, ranking seventh among qualified starting pitchers. He also ranks third in WHIP, with a 0.88 mark.
The same can’t be said of Kelly, who is in the midst of a major slump. He’s running a 5.71 ERA across his first 13 starts this season.
Given Tampa’s home-field advantage and starting-pitching advantage, I favor backing Tampa on the F5 ML.
I’m also looking to back Junior Caminero.
I’m mostly looking to take advantage of two players heading in opposite directions. While Kelly is struggling, Caminero is heating up, hitting three homers in Thursday’s game against the Royals.
Remember, this guy hit 45 homers just last year, and I think he puts together a massive, multi-hit day on Sunday.
Picks: Rays F5 ML (-188) | Junior Caminero Over 1.5 Hits (+175)
Astros vs Tigers Picks
The Tigers will host the Astros on Sunday in the last of a three-game set at Comerica Park in Detroit.
I’m excited for this pitching matchup between Hunter Brown and Jack Flaherty.
Brown has only made four starts this season after dealing with injuries, but he’s been nothing but exceptional, having allowed just three earned runs across his first 19 frames with 28 strikeouts.
Unfortunately, Flaherty has seemingly fallen off. He's struggling with command (11% walk rate), his stuff is declining (5.14 botERA, career-low 92.9 MPH average fastball velocity), and he's running an ERA in the mid-fives.
Houston has a massive starting pitching advantage in this one, and Houston's lineup is still very dangerous. I'll happily take a shot with the Astros on the F5 ML, especially against a slumping Tigers squad that has severely underperformed this season.
Picks: Astros F5 ML (-150)
Mariners vs Guardians Picks
The Mariners and Guardians will square off on Sunday afternoon in the last of a three-game set at Progressive Field in Cleveland.
I’m very excited for this pitching duel between Emerson Hancock and Gavin Williams.
Hancock is running a 3.60 ERA through 85 innings, while Williams has a 3.82 ERA across 96 frames.
That said, I’m even more bullish on these starters than the numbers suggest. Hancock has the stuff and command to be Seattle’s best pitcher, while Williams is ascending into Ace territory for a Cleveland staff that needs one.
I’ll take the NRFI.
Picks: NRFI (-146)
Rockies vs Twins Picks
This interleague clash should provide plenty of runs.
Connor Prielipp will start for the Twins, while Ryan Feltner will start for the Rockies, and neither pitcher gives me much confidence.
Prielipp has been abysmal this season, with a 5.17 ERA and 1.42 WHIP across 11 starts.
Like Prielipp, Feltner has struggled, running a 4.79 ERA across 11 outings. And that hasn’t just been the Coors Field factor, as his road ERA (6.17) is nearly two runs higher than his home ERA (4.33).
Simply put, I like the Over because I hate the pitchers.
I also think Byron Buxton will have another big day at the plate.
Buxton has been white-hot recently, as he’s now up to 25 homers on the season, second-most among MLB hitters. He’s also 2-for-2 lifetime off Feltner with a double and a triple.
Picks: Over (+102) | Byron Buxton Over 1.5 Total Bases (-118) | Byron Buxton Home Run (+240)
Angels vs Athletics Picks
The Angels will host the Athletics on Sunday afternoon in the last of a three-game homestand at Angel Stadium in Anaheim. Veteran pitcher Aaron Civale will start for the A’s, while youngster Sam Aldegheri will start for the Halos.
If you’ve read any of my work this season, then you know how bullish I have been (and still am) on Nick Kurtz, who is in the midst of an absolute heater.
Over the past month, Kurtz ranks sixth among qualified hitters in wRC+ (188) and seventh in fWAR (1.4). He’s hit an MLB-high 11 home runs during the stretch.
While Kurtz is in a tough lefty-on-lefty matchup against Aldegheri, the A’s slugger has improved mightily against that side this season (135 wRC+ in 2026, 83 wRC+ in 2025). He’s been way more patient and disciplined in the box, and that should come in clutch in this matchup.
Aldegheri has a tunneling changeup that breaks off the center of the plate and forces plenty of whiffs, but Kurtz can lay off those pitches and wait for Aldegheri’s 92 MPH fastball to come right over the heart of the plate.
I’m not going to stop betting on Kurtz.
Picks: Nick Kurtz Over 2.5 HRR (-155)
Braves vs Giants Picks
I’m very excited for this National League matchup, especially on the mound between two former Cy Young winners.
Chris Sale hasn’t lost anything in his age-37 season, running a 2.14 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 29% strikeout rate through 84 innings this season.
While he hasn’t been quite as good, Robbie Ray has been pretty effective on the mound himself, running a 3.70 ERA across 88 frames.
But this will be a very tough test for Ray, given that Atlanta’s lineup is one of baseball’s best, even with Ronald Acuna Jr. on the IL.
In this matchup, I’m looking to bet on Michael Harris, especially considering he’s gotten the best of Ray in past encounters — Harris is 2-for-3 lifetime off Ray with a double and a homer.
I think Sale, Harris, and the Braves will have a big day against Ray, the sluggish San Francisco bats, and the uber-slow Giants defense.
Picks: Braves ML (-156) | Braves -1.5 (+112) | Michael Harris Over 1.5 HRR (-110)
Dodgers vs Padres Picks
The Dodgers and Padres will duke it out on Sunday afternoon in a divisional clash that should be a phenomenal matchup to conclude a three-game set at PetCo Park in San Diego.
31-year-old right-hander Michael King will make the start for the Friars, while righty Emmett Sheehan will take the mound for the visiting Dodgers in a game I expect San Diego to have an edge on the bump.
Sheehan simply hasn’t been that good, running a 5.32 ERA across 68 frames. He’s allowed a whopping 40 earned runs across his first 14 starts.
Meanwhile, King is in very solid form, ranking among the top 30 qualified starting pitchers in ERA (3.33) and WHIP (1.16).
Behind that pitching advantage, I’ll take a shot with the Friars in the first five innings.
I also think Fernando Tatis Jr. will find some success at the plate.
Yes, his power metrics have declined across the board, but that’s led to more contact at-bats and, ultimately, base knocks. Tatis ranks fifth among MLB hitters in singles (68), so I’ll bet him to hit another one in this matchup.
Picks: Padres F5 ML (+108) | Fernando Tatis Jr. Single (-120)
Minion's MLB Picks and Predictions for Sunday, June 28
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 HRR (-160)
- Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 Total Bases (-140)
- Jake Burger Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115)
- Rays F5 ML (-188)
- Junior Caminero Over 1.5 Hits (+175)
- Astros F5 ML (-150)
- Mariners vs Guardians NRFI (-146)
- Rockies vs Twins Over (+102)
- Byron Buxton Over 1.5 Total Bases (-118)
- Byron Buxton Home Run (+240)
- Nick Kurtz Over 2.5 HRR (-155)
- Braves ML (-156)
- Braves -1.5 (+112)
- Michael Harris Over 1.5 HRR (-110)
- Padres F5 ML (+108)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Single (-120)
