I'm on four home run props for Thursday's MLB slate, targeting the following games: Marlins vs. Twins, Mariners vs. Astros and Cardinals vs. Athletics
Read on for my Home Run Picks and find out why I'm on Byron Buxton, Julio Rodriguez, Yordan Alvarez and Brent Rooker.
MLB Home Run Picks, Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:40 PM | |
  | 2:10 PM | |
| 2:10 PM | |
  | 3:05 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Editor's Note: A home run parlay is not the author's formal recommendation. These home run picks have value as straight bets.
Marlins vs Twins Prediction
This spot is average, but considering Byron Buxton's recent form, these odds are still too high.
The Twins DH has absolutely been hammering the ball, with seven dingers already this month.
Today's Marlins SP, Braxton Garrett, is an average matchup for righty power, and the weather in Minnesota has wind mostly crossing right to left and blowing in slightly.
I have the true odds here around +280, making this a good bet.
Pick: Byron Buxton Home Run
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Mariners vs Astros Prediction
J-Rod has been in great form recently, and these odds are too high given the spot.
This ballpark is good for righty power, and the matchup versus Mike Burrows is a plus for righty power.
The Astros SP has allowed an above-average amount of home runs in his career to righties and grades out as an even better matchup.
I have the true odds for the Mariners CF around +400.
Pick: Julio Rodriguez Home Run
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Mariners vs Astros Prediction
These odds are a bit low, but they aren't low enough.
Yordan Alvarez has cooled down recently, but he's still been one of the best hitters in the league this season.
Luis Castillo isn't the same pitcher he used to be, and grades out as a matchup that is well above average for lefty power.
I have the true odds for Alvarez around +210, making this a great bet.
Pick: Yordan Alvarez Home Run
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Cardinals vs Athletics Prediction
The matchup isn't anything special, but these odds are a bit too high.
The A's Brent Rooker is still one of the best HR hitters in the league, and this ballpark is one of the best in the league for power.
The temperatures are solid for hitting, sitting at 80 degrees during game time, and the matchup against the Cardinals' Michael McGreevy is only slightly below average for homers.
I have the true odds here around +400.
Pick: Brent Rooker Home Run
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