The Chicago Cubs host the Minnesota Twins tonight. First pitch from Wrigley Field is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on Marquee and Twins TV.
The Cubs are favored by -146 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line (+130). The Twins are +124 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line (-156). The total is set at 11.
Find my Twins vs Cubs prediction below.
Twins vs Cubs Prediction, Pick
- Twins vs Cubs Pick: Cubs Moneyline (-142)
My Twins vs Cubs best bet is on Chicago to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Twins vs Cubs Odds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -156 | 11 -110o / -110u | +124 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 11 -110o / -110u | -146 |
Twins vs Cubs Probable Pitchers
| RHP Bailey Ober (MIN) | Stat | RHP Colin Rea (CHC) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-3 | W-L | 7-5 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 4.40/4.36 | ERA / xERA | 4.75/5.70 |
| 4.91/4.95 | FIP / xFIP | 4.91/4.83 |
| 10.7% | K-BB% | 8.2% |
| 33.3% | GB% | 44.0% |
| .247 | BABIP | .300 |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 91 | Location+ | 99 |
Twins vs Cubs Preview
Bailey Ober and Colin Rea face off in the battle of middling RHP at Wrigley Field. The wind is blowing out at 8 MPH on a hot day in Chicago.
This would typically be a good opportunity for bettors to take the over, but Rea is a much different pitcher at home than on the road.
- Rea at home: 2.72 ERA, 12.1% K-BB, 1.26 WHIP, 4.23 xFIP
- Rea on road: 6.45 ERA, 5.1% K-BB, 1.61 WHIP, 5.33 xFIP
He is still not a "good" pitcher, even at home, but the Cubs starter does well enough by limiting walks and inducing ground balls. Meanwhile, Ober is one of the league's most extreme flyball pitchers. His 33.3% FB this season is almost identical to his 32.3% career rate.
Ober returned from an extended stint on the Injured List due to elbow issues and pitched a gem against the Guardians on July 9. Unfortunately, his matchup against the Cubs will not be as soft.
Twins vs Cubs Pick, Betting Analysis
Chicago has a 105 wrC+ as a team this season against RHP and the second-best offense in the past 30 days (126 wRC+). The Twins are fourth in this span with a 123 wRC+, but they just lost superstar Byron Buxton again to an IL stint.
Twins' starting catcher Ryan Jeffers is healthy now, but this leaves the switch-hitting Victor Caratini on the bench. Rea is much worse against left-handed hitters than righties, and Caratini has been a significant offensive contributor since June (164 wRC+).
Furthermore, the Cubs' bullpen ranks as average, while the Twins have the second-worst by team xFIP and ERA.
Pick: Cubs Moneyline (-142)
