The New York Yankees host the Miami Marlins on Friday, April 3. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on YES.
The Yankees are favored by -175 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Marlins are +145 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Marlins vs Yankees prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Miami Marlins vs New York Yankees Prediction, Picks
- Marlins vs Yankees Pick: Yankees ML (-175)
My Marlins vs Yankees best bet is on New York to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Marlins vs Yankees Odds, Line, Spread
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -143 | 7.5 -117o / -103u | +153 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +119 | 7.5 -117o / -103u | -188 |
- Marlins vs Yankees Run Line: Marlins +1.5 (-143), Yankees -1.5 (+119)
- Marlins vs Yankees Over/Under: 7.5
- Marlins vs Yankees Moneyline: Marlins +153, Yankees -188
Marlins vs Yankees Projected Pitchers
| RHP Eury Perez (MIA) | Stat | RHP Will Warren (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | W-L | 0-0 |
| 0.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 3.86 / 5.34 | ERA / xERA | 2.08 / 4.14 |
| 5.01 / 3.60 | FIP / xFIP | 3.15 / 4.17 |
| 0.86 | WHIP | 1.62 |
| 25.9 | K-BB% | 5.3 |
| 22.2 | GB% | 64.3 |
| 116 | Stuff+ | 115 |
| 98 | Location+ | 103 |
Marlins vs Yankees MLB Betting Preview
Miami Marlins
The Marlins are firing on all cylinders to start this season. They have lost just one game thus far and have the highest wOBA in baseball through one week. This is all without Kyle Stowers (hamstring), who hit 25 HR and slugged .544 last season in 117 games.
The addition of Owen Caissie and the surge from Liam Hicks are driving this run. Hicks has three home runs and 12 RBI in five games. Caissie has a homer and 8 RBI, with a .350 average in six games.
Ironically, the coldest Marlins' hitter is 2026 sleeper darling, Jakob Marsee. He is slashing .136/.231/.273 through 26 plate appearances. He will not hit this far below the Mendoza line all season, but it is odd given how the overall offense has played.
Once Stowers returns and Marsee–along with fellow slow-starter Agustin Ramirez–gets going, this offense will be much better than expected from most entering the season.
Along with the offense, the story for the Marlins is the potential Sandy Alcantara bounce-back. Alcantara has not given up a run through his first two starts. He has allowed just two walks and seven hits in 16 IP, while striking out 12 batters.
With Alcantara and today's starter, Eury Perez, leading the Marlins, they have legitimate star power at the top of their rotation. If top prospects Robby Snelling and Thomas White are called up, they would be a Max Meyer breakout away from one of the league's best rotations.
Do not sleep on the Marlins… unless they start selling again.
New York Yankees
The Yankees are doing Yankees things. They are 5-1 and just won a series against the Mariners, who sit behind them as the AL's next betting favorite.
Ben Rice is carrying over his 2025 breakout. Cody Bellinger is hitting everything. Giancarlo Stanton looks five years younger at the plate. Cam Schlittler plays more like an ace with each start.
This is a team that isn't even getting much from several stars yet continues to win convincingly. Aaron Judge and Jazz Chisholm Jr. are just passengers in these wins.
They do not even have two of their staff's top starters yet! Gerrit Cole (elbow) and Carlos Rodon (elbow, hamstring) are expected to return in a month or two (Rodon may take more time than expected because of a recent hamstring injury).
Once the top pieces in this lineup get going and their starting pitchers are built up, this team should come together like Voltron for another World Series run.
Marlins vs Yankees Pick, Betting Analysis
Two one-loss teams come in, only one comes out. Both the Yankees and Marlins have won five of their first six games, yet there is a massive difference. The Yankees have faced the Giants and Mariners thus far, while the Marlins have faced the Rockies and White Sox.
As the saying goes, "You can only play the teams in front of you". The Yankees faced one average team and one contender. The Marlins have faced two bottom-feeders.
In a vacuum, Miami has the edge in this matchup with Eury Perez on the mound.
Perez's 2025 season was not overwhelming for a prospect of his caliber, but he was returning from Tommy John surgery, and still posted a league-average ERA, with quality peripherals.
Will Warren is still an "idea" pitcher. He has not had any success in the MLB, but we continue to project him based on his stuff and minor league success. Warren's first start this season showed us something new. He displayed a one MPH jump in fastball velocity and a 64.3% groundball rate (career 41.9%).
Action PRO projects him for 4.5 strikeouts this afternoon.
Also, Warren is better at home in his career (3.72 xFIP) than on the road (4.16 xFIP).
If Warren can sustain this tick-up and groundball rate, while finding more success versus left-handed bats, he could develop into one of the league's better pitchers.
Meanwhile, Eury Perez is already one of MLB's top-30 SPs, but this start could be ugly.
His career 53.4% flyball rate is not ideal for Yankee Stadium. This rate ranks second-highest among all SPs since his call-up in 2023, only behind Cristian Javier (54.6%).
Perez has never pitched in the Bronx, but facing this loaded lineup with his profile may not go his way.
Pick: Yankees ML (-175, BetMGM)
