The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Los Angeles Dodgers on June 2, 2026. First pitch from Chase Field is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on ARID.
The Dodgers are favored by -118 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Diamondbacks are +100 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Dodgers vs Diamondbacks prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Prediction
- Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Pick: Diamondbacks F5 Moneyline (-120; bet to -130)
My Dodgers vs Diamondbacks best bet is on Arizona to be winning after the first five innings. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Odds
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 9.5 -100o / -122u | -118 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -156 | 9.5 -100o / -122u | +100 |
- Dodgers vs Diamondbacks moneyline: Dodgers -118, Diamondbacks +100
- Dodgers vs Diamondbacks over/under: 9.5 (-100o / -122u)
- Dodgers vs Diamondbacks spread: Dodgers -1.5 (+130), Diamondbacks +1.5 (-156)
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Probable Pitchers
| LHP Eric Lauer (LAD) | Stat | RHP Michael Soroka (ARI) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | W-L | 7-2 |
| -0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.5 |
| 5.95/5.61 | ERA / xERA | 3.25/4.06 |
| 6.55/5.29 | FIP / xFIP | 2.85/3.42 |
| 7.1% | K-BB% | 18.0% |
| 25.4% | GB% | 40.0% |
| .240 | BABIP | .318 |
| 87 | Stuff+ | 93 |
| 103 | Location+ | 107 |
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks MLB Betting Preview
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview
Any sort of analysis on this game is going to depend on how much you think the Dodgers can successfully tamper with Eric Lauer.
Exceeding all expectations with a 20.4 K-BB% through 10 starts and his first 69 innings last year, Lauer began a decline that saw him demoted to the bullpen with a 13.4 K-BB% over his final 65.2 innings of the season.
Still a strong enough showing that the Blue Jays were comfortable trusting him with a rotation spot again, when they were hit with injuries in March.
Lauer responded by striking out nine of 20 A’s in his first start, but was then hit with the flu.
When he returned, his velocity was down 1.2 mph from his first start, while he walked more batters than he struck out over his next four outings.
He ended up only gaining half of that velocity back, but really floundered in another three outings before he was released.
When the Dodgers come calling on a guy like this, you wonder, what do they know?
In Lauer’s first start for the Dodgers, he struck out four of 22 Rockies with a walk and home run, which was his only run allowed. He allowed only five hard hit batted balls (29.4%), but three of them were barrels (17.6%) and he recorded just a 6.3 SwStr%.
This game was not at Coors, making the surface results even less impressive, although he was back up to 91.1 mph, just 0.1 mph below his first start of the season.
The only significant alteration to his pitch selection was omitting the slider he had been throwing 10.6% of the time and replacing it by doubling his curveball usage to 19.8%.
This certainly makes sense when you look at the metrics on the pitches, not including the run values.
Slider: 34 PB Stuff, 53 PB Cmd, 45 PB Overall/97 Stuff+, 97 Location+, 86 Pitching+
Curveball: 35 PB Stuff, 65 PB Cmd, 62 PB Overall/90 Stuff+, 119 Location+, 102 Pitching+
The pitch earned 53 PB and 113 P+ marks in his first Dodgers start. The move seemed like a no brainer.
But is it enough?
We can’t decipher much about a single outing against the Rockies away from Coors. The contact profile was questionable and the SwStr% was unimpressive to say the least. Pitcher's List gave him an F for Stuff on the outing.
If you want to take Lauer at face value, his best 2026 estimator is a 5.10 Bot ERA.
Maybe the Dodgers make a few more tweaks and can keep him at that velocity and get him under five?
They really just need a guy who’s pitchable until they bring the studs back for the stretch run.
Then there’s the other problem. The Diamondbacks, who just got Nolan Arenado back, pummel LHP (120 team wRC+ on the season).
The projected lineup has a 131 wRC+ against southpaws since last season with each of the first seven projected above a 105 mark and only the pair of rookies in Jose Fernandez and Tommy Troy (not enough PAs against LHP, but a 112 wRC+ overall since being called up) missing from that Murderer’s Row of lefty mashers.
They also have a team 108 wRC+ at home this season with Vargas the low man (95 wRC+) since last year.
Arizona may be able to stack the lineup with eight RHBs. Batters from that side of the plate have a .318 wOBA and .324 xwOBA against Lauer since last season with LHBs not that much worse (.309, .324).
The Diamondbacks are one of the better base running teams in the league, led by Corbin Carroll, one of only seven major leaguers to have reached three Base Running Runs this year.
The combination of Lauer (-1 Net Bases Prevented) and Will Smith (0 CS Above Average) is near neutral in stopping the running game.
Both of these teams have upper part of the league defenses with the Dodgers slightly better:
13 Runs Prevented (3rd)
16 OAA (3rd)
15 FRV (Projected lineup)
With a healthy 2.95 FIP/3.56 xFIP/3.35 SIERA combination, the Dodgers have the fourth best bullpen estimators in the league over the last 30 days. A far cry from last year’s post-season performance and not too shabby with their newly signed, expensive closer on the IL.
Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview
Outside of a pair of starts where Michael Soroka has allowed 31.4% of his runs this season, he hasn’t allowed more than two in any of his other nine. He’s one out shy of five straight quality starts with a total of six runs allowed.
On the season, an 18 K-BB% and 33.9 HardHit% somehow results in a 4.06 xERA because he’s allowed 8.5% Barrels/BBE, but that’s Soroka’s only estimator above four.
He has just a 2.85 FIP because just 26.7% of his barrels have left the yard, but remaining indicators, ranging from a 3.41 xFIP to a 3.95 dERA probably tell the most reliable story.
Soroka has picked up a cutter this year, throwing it sparingly in his first three starts, but increasing the usage to 14.2% since. He now has five pitches he’s throwing between 10.5% and 32.4% of the time over this stretch.
They all receive passing grades via PitchingBot (50+) though Pitching+ evaluate the curve (91) and change (78) below average. As a result, his 3.63 Bot ERA is more optimistic than a 100 Pitching+.
Soroka doesn’t have a slider, so the only pitch he throws that the Dodgers have a negative run value against is the sinker and even then only barely (-0.02 wSI/C).
When factoring the projected lineup run values against Soroka’s arsenal since last year, the Dodgers compare very favorably against his four-seamer, which should surprise nobody, and worst against his curveball.
Shohei Ohtani is the toughest matchup across the board (surprise), though Soroka may have mor favorable matchups against Alex Freeland, Mookie Betts and Will Smith, although I wouldn’t completely trust anything that includes Mookie’s results from last season.
The Dodgers have a 128 wRC+ on the road and 124 vs RHP. Their projected lineup has a 134 wRC+ against RHP since last season and an overall 128 wRC+ the last month. That’s a pretty narrow range around 130 with my most heavily weighted of those four numbers the highest.
Only three pitchers have been worse than Soroka (-6 Net Bases Prevented) at holding runners, who have taken off 3% of the time they’ve had the opportunity to against him. Gabriel Moreno has thrown out 25% of attempted base stealers (0 CS Above Average).
However, the Dodgers don’t have a single batter above one BRR and when you slug like that, where are they going anyway?
As mentioned, the Diamondbacks nearly match the Dodgers defensively.
10 Runs Prevented (t4th)
12 OAA (t4th)
11 FRV (Projected lineup)
They also have the eight-best bullpen estimators over the last month (3.28 FIP/4.05 xFIP/3.62 SIERA), just a bit more than one-third of a run behind the Dodgers.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Pick, Betting Analysis
The Diamondbacks have already noted a roof closure for Tuesday, which makes Arizona the third most positive run environment in the league with a 108 Park Run Factor (Statcast). It’s a very tough park for left-handed power (78 HR Factor), but neutral for RHBs (100).
Stu Scheurwater is in line to call balls and strikes. Some sites have him as a slightly hitter friendly umpire (EV Analytics), though our own Sean Zerillo rates him as slightly pitcher friendly.
I’m much more confident in my evaluation of Soroka around three and a half than I am with Lauer.
Although anyone good enough to pitch in this league will probably surprise you a few times if they get 30 tries, I can’t see the Dodgers getting Lauer within a run of Soroka. At least not yet.
Elsewhere, the Dodgers have small to moderate edges everywhere else (offense, defense, bullpen), while the Diamondbacks grab a little bit back with base running and home field advantage.
While I have a slight lean towards the over (either full game of F5) and could consider a play if the market moves in the right direction, the larger value I see here is on Arizona.
I have the F5 (currently -110 at bet365) rated a bit better than the full game (+105) because the Diamondbacks lose their biggest edge once Soroka leaves the game, but would be fine that number too. (Arizona’s value also declines when Lauer exits for a RHP.)
In fact, if you don’t have access to the bet365 number and only have something around FanDuel’s current F5 price of -120, I’d encourage pivoting to any full game price better than even.
I’ll endorse the Diamondbacks F5 up to -130 though.
Pick: Diamondbacks F5 Moneyline (-120; bet to -130)
