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Fanatics Long Ball Jackpot: Our Expert’s MLB Home Run Picks for Friday, April 10

Fanatics Long Ball Jackpot: Our Expert’s MLB Home Run Picks for Friday, April 10 article feature image
4 min read
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Denny Medley-Imagn Images. Pictured: Christian Yelich.

You have to check out Fanatics Sportsbook's newest big-money contest, the MLB Long Ball Jackpot.

It’s already paid out some big winners… Maybe you’ll be next?!?!

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Fanatics Long Ball Jackpot: An Introduction

Here's how it works:

  • Opt in and bet a minimum of $5 on a player to hit a home run. You can only select one player.
  • If your player hits the longest home run on the MLB slate, you split $50,000 in FanCash with everyone else who bet that player.
  • But because the longest home run on a given day is pretty random and about 270 players are eligible on a 15-game slate, there have been some huge winners already.
  • Home run distance is measured via MLB's StatCast, which captures "the flight of the path based on radar as far as the radar will allow us to track it" and "if the radar loses it, we project beyond it based on the physics." So, it's not a perfect measurement.

While Fanatics is the first sportsbook to run a competition based on the length of home runs in baseball, several other sportsbooks offer similar contests.

For example, DraftKings runs the NBA King of the Court contest, in which the player who bets the highest PRA total on the slate wins. Of course, this more often than not results in minuscule payouts, given how top-heavy the league is.

On the contrary, the Long Ball Jackpot offers much greater randomness, resulting in much higher payouts.

As such, the contest is far more strategic.

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Long Ball Game Theory

On the surface, you’d think you want to target players who hit a ton of homers.

But the game theory in this contest runs deeper, with more statistical variables to consider.

For starters, average home run distance and launch angle are of vital importance for picking Long Ball Jackpot winners. Any search for this contest should start by identifying a group of players who thrive in these categories.

Additionally, you have to take the weather, specifically wind speed, into account. Heavy winds can drastically impact the distance of any home run. At the same time, take into account the ballpark, as some are far easier than others to hit longer homers.

Finally, taking a contrarian stance in this contest is the best route. There’s little correlation between how elite a hitter is and how long he can crush a home run on any given day.

To maximize potential profit, you must get creative with your selections so your winnings are not split among a large group.

A Statistical Deep Dive into Fanatics Sportsbook's $50K Long Ball Jackpot Image

Expert Home Run Picks for Friday, April 10

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Elly De La Cruz

vs. Angels, 6:45 PM ET

When it comes to ballparks that allow the longest homers in baseball, the Reds’ Great American Ballpark definitely ranks inside the top three on that list, alongside Coors Field and Dodger Stadium.

The Reds' lineup boasts several elite power-hitters with a high tendency to hit long homers, many of whom match up very well with Angels’ right-hander Jack Kochanowicz, who is set to take the bump on Friday night.

While Kochanowicz has done a great job so far this season, not having allowed a single home run thus far, the Angels' starter is relatively one-dimensional and has been very susceptible to hard contact over the past few years.

The 25-year-old righty has a below-average strikeout rate and relies heavily on his sinker. Though effective in the past, his off-speed pitches seem to have fallen off big time, as hitters who show patience in the box often sit on the rest of his arsenal looking for the sinker or a high four-seam fastball.

In addition to his four-seam fastball and sinker usage, Kochanowicz does not have another effective pitch, which has made it very predictable to anticipate a hanging sinker over the plate.

Reds’ superstar shortstop Elly De La Cruz matches up very well with the Angels’ right-hander, as he hits both the four-seam and sinker well.

Cincinnati’s young star is very vulnerable to striking out, so he now gets a favorable matchup against Kochanowicz, a low-strikeout arm that relies on low-contact ground balls to retire hitters. Elly’s biggest weakness is minimized via Kochanowicz's lack of strikeout prowess, which should leave him ample time in the box to wait on the right pitch over the plate.

Though he may be somewhat popular as a pick for Friday’s Longball Jackpot contest, I still feel good about backing the youngster to launch one.

For those looking for a more contrarian pick with the same sentiment, Reds outfielder Spencer Steer has also thrived against high-velocity sinkers.

Pick: Elly De La Cruz Home Run (+440, Fanatics)

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Christian Yelich

vs. Rockies, 9:40 PM ET

Jake Irvin allows a ton of hard contact and home runs. He's also been awful early in 2026, posting an ERA north of eight over his first two outings.

He relies heavily on his fastball and sinker. Otherwise, he has a rather underwhelming arsenal. He's attempted to add some more off-speed stuff to his arsenal, including a splitter, but it hasn't made much of a difference so far.

Plus, he struggles against southpaws, which opens up the door for Christian Yelich on Friday night.

Yelich hit one of the longest home runs in the Statcast era back in 2022, blasting a 499-foot moonshot at Coors Field. He's well known as an elite hitter, but his raw power is often slept on.

He also spanks sinkers, and he's whipped Irvin in the past. In 11 head-to-head at-bats, Yelich has six doubles and a homer against Irvin.

Pick: Christian Yelich Home Run (+510, Fanatics)

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About the Author

Ryan graduated from Providence College in 2016 with Bachelor Degrees in Business Economics & Mathematics. It was at Providence where Ryan really first found his passion for sports betting. For a lifelong sports fan with a knack for statistical analysis, he was instantly drawn to the fundamentals of the industry, specifically how sports betting markets functioned and fluctuated. In what primarily started as a recreational hobby, Ryan began studying the ins-and-outs of sports betting markets on a daily basis. He took to Twitter (now X), where he amassed a following for writing a sports betting blog that provided statistical analysis behind his wagers. In spite of seeking employment opportunities elsewhere post graduation, Ryan continued to follow his passion for the statistical analysis of sports betting wagers, eventually deciding to pursue a career in the sports betting industry.

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