The Pittsburgh Pirates (23-20) host the Colorado Rockies (17-26) on May 14, 2026. First pitch from PNC Park is scheduled for 12:35 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SportsNet PT.
The Pirates are favored by -174 on the moneyline and by -1.5 (+126) on the run line. The Rockies are +146 on the moneyline and +1.5 (-152) on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs (-120 / -102).
Find my MLB picks and Rockies vs Pirates prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Rockies vs Pirates Predictions, Pick
- Rockies vs Pirates Pick: Rockies F5 ML (+120 or Better)
My Rockies vs Pirates best bet is on Colorado's first-half ML. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rockies vs Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -152 | 7.5 -120o / -102u | +146 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +126 | 7.5 -120o / -102u | -174 |
- Rockies vs Pirates moneyline: Rockies +146, Pirates -174
- Rockies vs Pirates over/under: 7.5 (-120 / -102)
- Rockies vs Pirates spread: Pirates -1.5 (+126), Rockies +1.5 (-152)
Rockies vs Pirates Probable Pitchers
| Chase Dollander (RHP, COL) | Stat | Carmen Mlodzinski (RHP, PIT) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | W-L | 2-3 |
| 0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.1 |
| 3.35 / 3.43 | ERA / xERA | 4.50 / 4.72 |
| 3.84 / 3.64 | FIP / xFIP | 2.84 / 3.46 |
| .269 | K-BB% | 15.8% |
| 53.2% | GB% | 47.1% |
| .269 | BABIP | .361 |
| 107 | Stuff+ | 93 |
| 97 | Location+ | 107 |
Rockies vs Pirates Expert MLB Picks & Best Bets Thursday
Colorado Rockies Trends, Key Players
Colorado continues to find itself at the bottom of the National League standings.
Former top prospect Chase Dollander has been one of the lone bright spots for this team. After a challenging rookie season, Dollander holds a 3.35 ERA across nine appearances. Opponents are hitting just .218 against him, and he has racked up 47 strikeouts over 43 innings.
One thing that has helped him a bit is operating behind an opener and coming in as a bulk reliever. Dollander certainly has the stuff to be successful in this league. His fastball tops out at 99 MPH, and he has a sinker and a slider that are both plus pitches. He has dramatically improved his command this year, but still needs to cut down on the walks.
The other bright spot has been the breakout of former number one overall pick Mickey Moniak. The former Phillies prospect seems to have finally clicked, hitting over .300 with a near 1.000 OPS.
He and catcher Hunter Goodman have been really good offensively, but after that, things drop off a cliff.
Despite the biggest home park advantage in the league, Colorado ranks in the bottom half of the league in scoring. They strike out a ton and don’t have much pop outside of the top few guys. The Rockies have taken a super-aggressive approach at the plate, but so far, it has just resulted in a much higher whiff rate.
Pittsburgh Pirates Trends, Key Players
The Yinzers are feeling hopeful in the Steel City for the first time in a few years and will turn to Carmen Mlodzinski to keep things going on Thursday afternoon at PNC Park.
After converting from a middle reliever to a back-of-the-rotation arm, Mlodzinski has a 4.50 ERA through eight appearances, with more good starts than bad.
Mlodzinski has an terrific splitter, which has held opponents to just a .193 average with a 31% whiff rate. Unfortunately, his four-seam fastball has been blasted. Teams are hitting .391 with a 69.7% hard-hit rate against his four-seamer. He should probably stop throwing it.
Pirates fans hate giving their front office any credit, but that seemed to have pushed all the right buttons this offseason. The Buccos sit fifth in the league in scoring and rank in the top 10 in team average and OPS. They are doing a much better job of waiting for their pitch and capitalizing on it.
Key offseason additions Brandon Lowe and Ryan O’Hearn have made huge differences. They rank second and third on the team in home runs, and both have an OPS over .800. Oneil Cruz finally looks like the superstar people thought he could become, and top prospect Konnor Griffin is showing he belongs already.
How To Bet My Rockies vs Pirates Pick
The Rockies are clearly the worst team in the league, but they are a lot more competitive than they were last season.
On May 14 last season, they were just 7-36 with a .163 winning percentage. They have already more than doubled that mark this year.
Dollander has a significant pitching advantage in this one. He was the Rockies’ top prospect and a top 10 prospect in baseball last year for a good reason. His fastball averages 99, and he pairs that with a sinker and a nasty slider. In just one season, Dollander has raised his K/9 rate from 7.53 to 9.84.
On the season, his 3.35 ERA and 3.43 xERA are both strong, but that even includes his starts at Coors Field. On the road this season, Dollander has a 2.63 ERA, and opponents are hitting just .198 against him.
Mlodzinski has a 4.50 ERA on the season, and his 4.71 xERA is even higher. His 53.3% hard-hit rate allowed is one of the highest in the league, and opponents have been hammering his fastball.
That could spell trouble against a Colorado team that actually crushes fastballs.
While the Rockies' hyper-aggressive approach at the plate has led to more strikeouts, it has allowed them to jump on fastballs. They rank in the top 10 in the league against fastballs this season. Moniak has been the team's best offensive player, hitting .310 with a .619 slugging percentage against fastballs this season.
But once the starters leave, things will begin to shift in the Pirates' favor.
Therefore, I'm going to back the Rockies in the first half, banking on Dollander proving himself as Colorado's future ace.
Pick: Rockies F5 ML (+120 or Better)
