The Milwaukee Brewers host the Cleveland Guardians on June 18, 2026. First pitch from American Family Field is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on BREW.
The Brewers are favored by -146 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Guardians are +124 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Guardians vs Brewers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Guardians vs Brewers Prediction
- Guardians vs Brewers Pick: Brewers F5 ML (-145 or Better)
My Guardians vs Brewers best bet is on Milwaukee. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Guardians vs Brewers Odds
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -182 | 7.5 -104o / -118u | +124 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 7.5 -104o / -118u | -146 |
- Guardians vs Brewers moneyline: Guardians +124, Brewers -146
- Guardians vs Brewers over/under: 7.5 (-104 / -118)
- Guardians vs Brewers spread: Brewers -1.5 (+150), Guardians +1.5 (-182)
Guardians vs Brewers Probable Pitchers
| Parker Messick (LHP, CLE) | Stat | Shane Drohan (RHP, MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-3 | W-L | 3-2 |
| 2.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 2.68 / 3.34 | ERA / xERA | 3.59 / 3.01 |
| 3.32 / 3.51 | FIP / xFIP | 2.72 / 3.41 |
| 17.8% | K-BB% | 18.6% |
| 41.5% | GB% | 43.8% |
| .270 | BABIP | .303 |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 106 | Location+ | 109 |
Guardians vs Brewers MLB Betting Preview
I believe I’ve been fairly complimentary when having the opportunity to write about Patrick Messick this season. How could you not when the guy hasn’t produced a non-pitch modeling estimator higher than his 3.65 SIERA, while allowing just 6.1% Barrels/BBE and a 34% HardHit?
We can debate those pitch-modeling grades, as he’s been valued at a 4.37 Bot ERA but 105 Pitching+.
However, it’s undeniable that Messick has displayed a TTO (Times Through the Order) penalty:
- First TTO: 1.60 ERA, .222 wOBA, 23% K-BB (126 BF)
- Second TTO: 2.03 ERA, .298 wOBA, 11.1% K-BB (126 BF)
- Three TTO: 6.19 ERA, .356 wOBA, 20.6% K-BB (68 BF)
You could argue that his K-BB rate, the most important indicator, pops back up the third time through. And rather than arguing about the sample size, I’d note that his second-time-through numbers could be much worse, with an 11.1%.
While the Brewers have just a 96 wRC+ against LHP this year, they’re now fully healthy with Thursday’s projected lineup averaging a 137 wRC+ over the past 30 days and 118 mark against southpaws since last year.
In fact, the first six in Rotowire’s projected lineup have at least a 110 wRC+ over the last 30 days, with Jackson Chourio and Andrew Vaughn hitting the 170 mark in both categories.
Gary Sanchez’s presence should allow William Contreras to DH the day game after a night game. Sanchez has a 187 wRC+ over the last 30 days and a 125 wRC+ against LHP since 2025.
Across the field, Shane Drohan started the season with an awful start against the team that traded him this offseason (Boston) before quickly being moved to the bullpen and excelling in a multi-inning role.
He was moved back into the rotation once injuries hit and has sustained his bullpen work (22.4% K-BB, 95.4 MPH) across three starts (20.3% K-BB, 95.3 MPH). Drohan has also posted a 3.24 Bot ERA and 106 Pitching+ since moving back into the rotation while allowing just 16 hard-hit batted balls (35.6%).
Guardians vs Brewers Pick, Betting Analysis
While the Milwaukee lineup is healthy, the Guardians just placed three starters on the IL, including their superstar Jose Ramirez and rookie Chase DeLauter. Their projected lineup is down to an 82wRC+ against LHP since last season, even worse than their team's 88 wRC+ on the road this year.
Kyle Manzardo (104), who usually sits against LHP with a healthy roster, and Stuart Fairchild (105) are their top bats against southpaws by nearly 15 points of wRC+.
The Brewers also project for a small base running edge (4 BRR) with defenses likely being comparably average, though the home team should be strong up the middle with both Brice Turang and Joey Ortiz leading the lineup with 4 FRV (Fielding Run Value) each.
As you can see in BARTOLO, bullpens both rank in the top third of the league, but Cleveland has better estimators (FIP, xFIP, SIERA) by exactly half a run on average over the last month.
Thus, I’m finding better value in a slightly lower F5 price, and that should be right about the time Messick is starting his third trip through the order.
Hopefully, the Guardians will find out that you don’t mess with the Drohan!
Pick: Brewers F5 ML (-145 or Better)
