We’re going to be trying something different at Action Network this season.
Minor League baseball is an inefficient market. I’ve been betting on Triple-A ball since 2021, and the market has become widely available enough to where I was able to provide picks to subscribers last season — I went a documented 112-81-8 (58%) for a 51.7-unit profit.
You can still get most of my Triple-A picks over at WagerTalk, but I’m going to start publishing an Minor League baseball column here at Action Network on Tuesdays and Fridays, previewing the week and weekend ahead while providing some actionable insights.
Best Baseball Bets Today: Betting On Minor League, Triple-A
The first thing you need to understand about exploiting the Triple-A market is that it’s still a developmental league.
The players range from MLB-ready prospects to 30-plus-year-old journeymen trying to make it back to the show. You also have a handful of guys who likely top out at Triple-A but are good for organizational depth.
It’s also worth mentioning that 14 players on the Triple-A roster are also on the MLB 40-man roster, and these guys are constantly moving up and down from the big leagues.
All this makes each roster dynamic and volatile.
Bookmakers track the big names (e.g., Konnor Griffin) but can’t keep up with all the roster moves on a day-to-day basis. They also struggle to track the “developmental” aspect of everyone needing to play.
Lineups will look different day to day, and that’s primarily where I find my edge. This edge will become more pronounced as the season progresses, as I have a much greater bias toward in-season data and need a larger sample size to detect actionable wagers.
But since we have some in-season data, it’s time to start firing.
It’s worth noting that the Triple-A series consists of weekly six-game series that run Tuesday through Sunday. Additionally, every game is televised on MiLB.TV, which you can get as part of your MLB.TV subscription or directly at milb.com.
Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp at Norfolk Tides
6:35 PM ET
Jacksonville is off to a slow start after winning the Triple-A championship last season, but that won’t last.
The Jumbo Shrimp are loaded, and they just got a huge boost after Devysian De Los Santos was sent back down to Jacksonville.
Throw Santos in front of Joe Mack and Kemp Alderman, and you’ve got an elite heart of the order with unlimited upside.
The Marlins system is also loaded with pitching. Since bringing back Peter Bendiz and overhauling the player development staff, Miami has been elite at fixing and developing pitchers.
Solid relief arms are often hard to come by in Triple-A, but Jacksonville has an elite one in William Kempner. It’s a matter of time until he gets called up for his MLB debut, but for the time being, Jacksonville will have one of the best high-leverage relief options at this level.
On the other side, the injuries are starting to pile up for Baltimore, so the Orioles have already begun to raid a thin Norfolk roster early in the season.
Brandon Young and Cade Povich have been called back up in the past couple of days, which means the Tides will be at a pitching disadvantage this entire week.
Jackson Holliday is still rehabbing in Norfolk, but he’s slumping with a .584 OPS to begin the season. New acquisition Jhonkensy Noel is also off to a slow start, hitting .185 to start the year.
Collectively, Jacksonville has the better starting pitching, and there’s likely a spot coming up on Thursday or Friday where top prospect Robby Snelling starts. That will be one of my favorite Minor League spots of the week.
Pick: Target Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp vs. Norfolk Tides This Week
Omaha Storm Chasers at Iowa Cubs
7:38 PM ET
It might be tough to find playable value in this series, but the Iowa Cubs are loaded.
I love guys like Kevin Alcantara and James Triantos, who have played well to start the season. Jonathan Long is off to a slower start, but that won’t last, as he was among the best guys that didn’t get called up last season. The new “can’t miss” prospect looks to be Pedro Ramirez, who is off to a huge start. BJ Murray is another potentially elite prospect with a 1.164 OPS in the early going.
Iowa also has veteran starting pitchers like Vince Velasquez and Javier Assad, who are serviceable at the Triple-A level. However, the stud of this rotation is Jaxon Wiggins, who is among the sport’s top pitching prospects.
Wiggins likely starts on Thursday or Friday this week, and those starts would be an excellent time to back the Cubs.
The Storm Chasers have among the worst Triple-A lineups right now, even with Nick Loftin getting sent back down this week.
They also don’t have much pitching at the moment, and will have even less in the short term with Luinder Avila starting for the Royals last Saturday.
It could be tough to find a price low enough on the Cubs this week, but they are a team to monitor. I also wouldn’t mind betting Overs in this series.
Pick: Target Iowa Cubs vs. Omaha Storm Chasers This Week
Trigger's Top Minor League, Triple-A Plays This Week
- Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp ML vs. Norfolk Tides
- Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp vs. Norfolk Tides Over
- Iowa Cubs ML vs. Omaha Storm Chasers
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