The Miami Marlins host the Atlanta Braves on Wednesday, May 20. First pitch from loanDepot park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on BravesVsn and MLB.TV.
The Braves are favored by -194 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Marlins are +162 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Braves vs Marlins prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins Predictions, Pick
- Braves vs Marlins Pick: Braves -1.5 (-105 or Better)
My Braves vs Marlins best bet is on Atlanta. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Braves vs Marlins Odds, Spread, Line
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -112 | 7 -111o / -108u | -193 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -107 | 7 -111o / -108u | +158 |
- Braves vs Marlins Moneyline: Braves ML -193, Marlins ML +158
- Braves vs Marlins Over/Under: 7 Runs
- Braves vs Marlins Run Line: Braves -1.5 (-112), Marlins +1.5 (-107)
Braves vs Marlins Starting Pitchers
| Chris Sale (LHP, ATL) | Stat | Janson Junk (RHP, MIA) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-3 | W-L | 2-4 |
| 1.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.7 |
| 1.96 / 3.07 | ERA / xERA | 4.14 / 3.80 |
| 3.24 / 3.11 | FIP / xFIP | 4.03 / 4.03 |
| 23.1% | K-BB% | 11.5% |
| 45.1% | GB% | 48.0% |
| .236 | BABIP | .283 |
| 114 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 108 | Location+ | 112 |
Braves vs Marlins Game Preview
The Braves have been excellent all year. Their record stands at a terrific 32-16, and they hold a commanding lead for first place in the NL East.
Chris Sale has evaded Father Time thus far. He might be 37 years old, but he looks 27, boasting a 1.96 ERA in nine starts. Sale's underlying numbers are shaky, though. He has a 3.07 xERA and a 3.23 FIP. I don't think Sale will maintain a sub-2.00 ERA, but he'll continue to contend for the NL Cy Young.
May has been a down month for the Braves' offense, posting a 100 wRC+ compared to their 113 for the season. Still, their May wRC+ puts them 11th in MLB. Power fuels this Atlanta offense, as it has 23 homers this month, good for fourth in the league.
It's worth noting that the Braves didn't have Ronald Acuna Jr. from May 3rd to May 17th. He might not replicate his 40/70 season, but Acuna can set the table for Matt Olson and Drake Baldwin to drive in runs.
My one issue with the Braves is their lack of walks: they rank 26th this year with a 7.8% walk rate. They strike out just 20% of the time, which means this lineup is looking to swing. But pitchers can go longer in games against free-swinging lineups.
Things have trended very poorly for Marlins hurler Janson Junk of late. In his past two outings, he gave up seven runs to the Rays in 5 2/3 and four to the Nationals in six innings.
For the year, Junk has a 4.14 ERA, a 3.79 xERA, and a 4.20 FIP. He's a solid back-end of the rotation arm who got all of his regression in his last two outings.
However, I question his long-term viability as an MLB starter due to his lack of raw stuff. Out of 74 qualified starters, Junk is tied with the Rockies' Michael Lorenzen for the 15th-lowest K/9 in MLB.
Junk sits in the 22nd percentile in strikeout rate and 14th in whiff rate. Plus, he gets hit hard, as he ranks in the 30th percentile or worse in average exit velocity and hard hit rate.
The Marlins are about as league-average an offense as there is. And I mean that in the nicest way possible.
Miami lacks the explosiveness to be a top-10 offense for a month, but it ranks 17th in MLB this year and 16th in May. Consistency is a huge key, and the top of the Marlins order keeps them consistent.
Xavier Edwards and Otto Lopez have done a terrific job getting in scoring position for Liam Hicks and Kyle Stowers to drive them in.
The issue? Stowers and Hicks have struggled in May, and both struggle against lefties in general. Hicks is hitting just .241 against southpaws while Stowers checks in with a .227 average.
Braves vs Marlins Pick, Best Bet
I'm rolling with Atlanta on the run line.
The moneyline is juiced too much to give it out, and I think Atlanta provides its ace with run support, which he didn't get in his past two outings.
That's why losses are a totally meaningless pitcher stat. Sale lost his last two outings, but shut the Dodgers and Padres down. The Braves scored just one run in those 18 innings.
Sale has the weapons to slow down this Marlins lineup, and Junk's recent outings have shown his potential to implode. Meanwhile, the Braves could erupt for a lopsided scoring night.
Pick: Braves -1.5 (Play to -105)
