Phillies vs. Cubs Odds & Betting Predictions - April 23, 2026

The Phillies haven't won a baseball game since April 13, but they have a good chance to snap their 8-game losing streak this afternoon with Cristopher Sanchez on the bump. The weather at Wrigley Field today is on the hitter-friendly side, with the forecasted temperature in the mid-70s and 15 mph winds blowing out to LF around first pitch. That said, the weather isn't likely to hurt both starting pitchers equally. Among 127 starting pitchers to log 100+ innings in 2025, only 3 guys had a higher GB% than Sanchez. Keeping the ball on the ground will minimize the hitter-friendly wind conditions. Meanwhile, Cabrera struggles with his command at times. Couple that with an extreme reliance on his changeup -- it's not difficult to see a scenario in which he walks a batter or two, then allows a fly-ball that leads to a crooked number for Philadelphia's offense. Both of these teams could be vulnerable in the late innings, but Sanchez should have a better chance to get deeper into this game, which would limit Philadelphia's bullpen exposure. At close to a pick'em price, there is value on the Phillies here with their ace on the mound. #MLB

Bet to -120 or 9 (+100)

Another day of buying as low as you can on a team. The Phillies have now lost eight straight games and look to be heading into the same disastrous stretch the Mets were on. However, I actually think they break their losing streak today with Cristopher Sanchez on the mound. Despite being one of the best pitchers in baseball, Sanchez remains underrated. What he’s done the past few years isn’t talked about enough. Sanchez currently owns a 1.59 ERA with a 1.70 FIP and 2.21 xFIP. For a third consecutive year, his estimators are all below 3.5. His 2.49 SIERA is elite, as well as his 116 Stuff+ and 114 Pitching+ grades. This season, Sanchez has a 31.7% strikeout rate with a 32.3% whiff rate. To be quite honest, Sanchez hasn’t even pitched that well this season and still has these stats. He’s just a really solid arm that can get outs on the ground, which is super important at Wrigley Field today considering the wind is blowing out to left center field. Fly balls carry hard when the wind is blowing out in Chicago, but luckily Sanchez induces ground balls 59.2% of the time, which is one of the best marks in the league. On the flip side, Edward Cabrera is struggling to open the season despite sporting a solid 2.38 ERA. His 4.24 xERA and 4.32 xFIP suggest regression is coming, and the advanced metrics aren’t buying it. He has a .254 xBA with just an 18.7% strikeout rate. He’s also getting barreled 11.1% of the time and walking batters 12.1% of the time. Cabrera is struggling to keep the ball on the ground, which is not ideal in today’s weather conditions. He’s also seen his Stuff+ and Pitching+ grades drop drastically this season, which leaves me a little concerned if he is injured. I do like Cabrera as a pitcher, but I give a major edge to Cristopher Sanchez in this starting pitching matchup today. The Phillies lineup may be slumping right now, but these hitting conditions will be ideal today, and this lineup is way too good to continue to struggle. They also own a .240 xBA and .386 xSLG despite currently sitting at .220 and .357 respectively. This offense is due for positive regression, while the Cubs offense has overperformed thus far in 2026. Another edge I see in this game is in the bullpen. The Phillies bullpen currently has a 4.66 ERA, but a 2.97 xERA with a 3.70 FIP. This unit has been super unlucky and will only go up from here. Meanwhile, the Cubs bullpen has been the opposite. They currently have a 3.46 ERA, but a 4.55 xERA and a 4.23 FIP. Regression is coming for their bullpen, especially in a poor rest spot like they are in today. Their closer, Daniel Palencia, is on the IL, which already makes this bullpen thin, and now Hoby Milner and Ben Brown likely won’t pitch today either. That leaves their bullpen a lot less desirable. On the other hand, the Phillies’ best bullpen arms are good to go. I would be shocked to see the Phillies drop today’s game, even if their vibes are low in the clubhouse. Give me the Phillies moneyline.

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There may be some value on Cristopher Sanchez's strikeouts prop. THE BAT X is projecting him to record 5.13 strikeouts, and oddsmakers are implying 5.92. The model believes there is a 59% chance he records fewer than 6 strikeouts. If you can get the under at +120 or better there is great value here. This play is good down to at least -115. Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty's sports betting projections at EV Analytics https://evanalytics.com/subscribe/mlb?ref=zdlkmgz