Braves vs. Mets Odds & Betting Predictions - August 11, 2023

Braves at Mets

11:10 pm • MLB Network

Atlanta Braves

0-2

7 - 0

New York Mets

7-6

pitcher		team	era	w-l
T.Megill			4.70	9-8
C.Morton			3.64	14-12

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Braves 0-2	-1.5-120	o9.5-106	-199
Mets 7-6	+1.5+101	u9.5-114	+159

Friday 11:10 p.m.

August 11, 2023

Citi FieldFlushing, Queens

ATL o5.5-108

NYM +156

0.8u

Available at FanDuel. I think my model is pretty low on Tylor Megill, and it's still showing value on the Mets. That's why I'm fine betting them despite the fact that it makes me want to vomit. Megill struggled in Triple-A, and in his first start back in the majors, his old issues were still present. It ain't great. But Charlie Morton on the other side has had his own issues, specifically with command. And despite the pitching exodus, the Mets still have a solid offense with a 113 wRC+ against righties. With Pete Alonso back on fire, I buy into what the model is saying. I have the Mets' win odds a decent amount above 40% while their implied odds are 39.1%.

NYM +164

0.5u

Bet to +159

Featured Insight
The Mets have scored first in just 40% of their games this season -- lowest in MLB. The Braves have allowed their opponents to score first in just 34% of their games this season -- lowest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Braves Right Handed Hitters have struck out just 19% against LHP this season -- fifth-lowest in MLB. MetsRPs have a strikeout rate of just 23% vs right-handed batters this season -- tied for seventh-lowest in MLB.

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Opening Pitch: Zerillo's Friday MLB Betting Card
Sean Zerillo•
Aug 11, 2023 UTC

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The Braves are 38-15 (.717) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses this season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .570.

The Mets are 45-1 (.978) when leading entering the 9th inning this season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .949.

Pete Alonso has an OPS of .866 since last season -- 13th best in MLB-- 89th Percentile. Yonny Chirinos has allowed an OPS of .790 (354 PAs) since last season -- 11th worst among qualified RPs-- sixth Percentile.

Pete Alonso has 13 home runs on breaking pitches this season -- tied for third most in MLB-- 99th Percentile. Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 44% of the time this season -- third highest among qualified SPs-- 95th Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of just 21% (58/273) against Tylor Megill with runners in scoring position since last season -- lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 110 total IP; League Avg: 31% -- 0 Percentile.

Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 48% of the time (508/1,060) vs left-handed batters this season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 20% -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Mets are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Mets are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Mets are 42-39 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Mets' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 42 of Mets' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mets	86-76	44-37	42-39	52-45	33-30
Braves	75-87	35-46	40-41	60-71	15-16

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Mets	81-76-5	42-39	39-37-5	46-46-5	34-29
Braves	58-94-10	25-53-3	33-41-7	45-77-9	13-17-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mets	89-73	46-35	43-38	60-37	28-35
Braves	89-73	46-35	43-38	76-55	13-18

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Aug 9th	CHC	W 4-3	+1.5 W	U 9	NYM +100
Aug 8th	CHC	L 2-3	+1.5 W	U 9	CHC +115
Aug 7th	CHC	W 11-2	-1.5 W	O 9	NYM -112
Aug 6th	@BAL	L 0-2	+1.5 L	U 8.5	BAL +165
Aug 5th	@BAL	L 3-7	+1.5 L	O 9.5	BAL +144

Chris Sale
P
Chris Sale (back spasms) scratched Monday. Grant Holmes will start Game 2.
Out
Ronald Acuna
OF
Acuna is out for season with knee
Out for Season
Austin Riley
IF
Riley is out with hand
Out
Spencer Strider
P
Strider is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

Paul Blackburn
P
Blackburn is out with hand
Out
Ronny Mauricio
IF
Mauricio is out with knee
Out
Christian Scott
P
Scott is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K
RC.Morton, P	105	5	4
RP.Johnson, P	8	1	2
LB. Hand, P	22	1	0
RK.Yates, P	22	1	1
LA.Minter, P	14	1	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1R.Acuna, RF	0-4	1	0	0
2O.Albies, 2B	1-4	0	0	1
3A.Riley, 3B	3-4	2	1	2
4M.Olson, 1B	1-4	1	0	0
5T.d'Arnaud, C	2-4	1	0	0
6M.Ozuna, DH	1-4	1	0	0
7E.Rosario, LF	2-4	0	0	3
8O.Arcia, SS	0-4	0	0	0
9M.Harris, CF	1-4	1	0	0

PITCHER		PC	IP	K	ER
RT.Megill, P		84	5.1	3	5
RJ. Yacabonis, P		54	3.2	2	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1B.Nimmo, CF	1-2	0	0	0
1D.Stewart, RF	0-1	0	0	0
2F.Alvarez, C	1-5	0	0	0
3J.McNeil, RF	1-4	0	0	0
3J.McNeil, CF	1-4	0	0	0
4P.Alonso, 1B	0-1	0	0	0
4A. Almonte, PH	0-1	0	0	0
5D.Vogelbach, DH	0-5	0	0	0
6M.Vientos, 3B	2-4	0	0	0
7R.Ortega, LF	1-3	0	0	0
8D.Mendick, 2B	1-4	0	0	0
9J. Araúz, SS	0-2	0	0	0