This is a great buy-low spot for the one Ford who has shown speed this year. Blaney led 47 laps in Dover and 17 in Texas, both of which used this rules package, and he finished third in Vegas. My model may be too high on Blaney, but with his implied odds at 4.4%, I have a lot of wiggle room to be too high and still be above market.

Also showing value on Hill at +850 at FanDuel. The implied odds at +850 are 10.5%, and I have him at 15.9%. RCR has been much better in this rules package than the short-track package, and Hill runs very well on 1.5-mile tracks in Xfinity. We're getting a good number on Hill once you consider all of those factors.