The New York Islanders (1-3-0) and Ottawa Senators (2-3-0) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 3:00 p.m. EDT at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Senators are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6 (-112o / -105u). The Senators are a -146 favorite to win outright, while the Islanders are +122 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Islanders vs. Senators predictions and NHL picks.
Islanders vs. Senators Odds, Pick
| Islanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 6 -112o / -105u | +122 |
| Senators Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +164 | 6 -112o / -105u | -146 |
- Islanders vs. Senators Spread: Senators -1.5 (+164 ), Islanders +1.5 (-200)
- Islanders vs. Senators Over/Under: 6 (-112o / -105u)
- Islanders vs. Senators Moneyline: Islanders +122, Senators -146
Islanders vs. Senators Preview
The Islanders, for as good as they looked on Thursday, don’t exactly fit the bill.
Mathew Barzal is amongst one of the more skilled players in the NHL, even though the numbers don’t show it, and Bo Horvat is fresh off a hat trick game against the Oilers.
But what about Matthew Schaefer, the number one overall pick in the 2025 Draft? We haven’t seen a player like him since Cale Makar, and before people get on me for comparing Schaefer to Makar, I’m expecting him to hit the rookie slump eventually.
But beyond that? The execution isn’t there for the team.
New York’s 5-on-5 play has been a disaster, playing to a third-worst 41.36 xGF% and league-worst 3.55 xGA/60.
Along with that, the special teams hasn’t been good in however long, scoring on the power play at an 18.8% pace, and what a surprise – the penalty kill, which was historically bad last season, is only converting on a 71.4% pace.
Not only that, franchise goaltender Ilya Sorokin has been a grave disappointment, playing to an .854 SV% and a -1.7 GSAx.
Ottawa has been a bit of a nightmare recently. Even though it came out with a big shootout win against the Kraken, it was disappointing to see how brutal the Senators were in the three games prior.
They got smoked by the Sabres 8-4, lost to the Predators 4-1, and 6-2 to the Panthers.
The loss to the Panthers is acceptable, but losing by that much to Buffalo and Nashville is a major red flag to me.
The underlying numbers look like they’ve been playing elite, with a sixth best 55.47 xGF% while also playing at a league best xGA/60 at 2.07.
Shane Pinto has been huge for the Sens with six goals in the five games played and Jake Sanderson is playing at a point per game pace which has helped the offense roll.
Ultimately though, it’s the penalty kill that is destroying the team. Currently Ottawa has the second-worst penalty kill, at 55%.
But with the poor goaltending from Linus Ullmark, it’s hard to really trust them. He’s playing at an abhorrent .862 SV% and a league worst -5.1 GSAx.
Islanders vs. Senators Prediction
Just with how poorly the Islanders are on both ends of the ice, along with Sorokin, I am expecting a high scoring game here.
Until I see some improvement from Sorokin, I’ll continue to be bearish on him. He’s up there with one of the better goalies in the NHL, but the struggle bus for the Russian is quite real.
Ottawa’s offense has been humming regardless of what has happened, but in every game aside from the Nashville game, the Senators have hit over the 6.5 mark.
All thanks to the terrible goaltending from Ullmark and Leevi Merilainen.
Let’s rock with the over here.
Pick: Over 6 (-112)
