The Colorado Avalanche (45-13-10) and Washington Capitals (35-27-8) face off in an inter-conference matchup Sunday afternoon. Puck drop is set for 12:30 p.m. EDT at Capital One Arena in Washington, DC. The game will be broadcast live on NHL Network.
The Avalanche are priced at +160 to cover the puck-line (-1.5), with the over/under set at 6.5 (+105o / -125u). The Avalanche are a -155 favorite to win outright, while the Capitals are +130 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Avalanche vs. Capitals predictions and NHL picks.
Avalanche vs. Capitals Odds, Pick
| Avalanche Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +175 | 6.5 -100o / -120u | -156 |
| Capitals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -213 | 6.5 -100o / -120u | +130 |
- Avalanche vs. Capitals Spread: Avalanche -1.5 (+160), Capitals +1.5 (-190)
- Avalanche vs. Capitals Over/Under: 6.5 (+105o / -125u)
- Avalanche vs. Capitals Moneyline: Avalanche -156, Capitals +130
Avalanche vs. Capitals Preview
Colorado Avalanche
Throughout the first 40 games of the season, the Avalanche played to a record of 31-2-7 and were tracking for a historically strong campaign. They allowed only 2.18 goals against per game in that span, and held a league-leading 60.14% expected goal share. Without question, they were the best team in the league at both ends of the ice.
In the following 26 games, the Avalanche played to a record of 13-11-2 and allowed 3.00 goals against per game. During that mediocre stretch of play from Colorado, the Dallas Stars played to a record of 17-6-3 to gain significant ground in the division race. As a result, Wednesday's head-to-head matchup between the two sides was highly significant, after for the majority of the year it appeared the Avalanche would not play another truly meaningful game until the postseason.
It does feel as though a level of complacency was a key reason for the Avalanche's drop-off in form. As the rest of the league was rounding into top form, it felt as though head coach Jared Bednar's group was, to some extent, being outcompeted, and their defensive numbers took a hit as a result.
Though they ultimately lost in the shootout, it felt as though the Avalanche clearly elevated their level of urgency in Wednesday's critical matchup versus the Stars. Dallas has been the best defensive team in the league over the last two months, but the Avalanche played an urgent and well-organized game, generating 34 shots on goal and only 1.67 expected goals against at even strength.
The Avalanche seemingly kept the same level of urgency in a much more favorable spot on Friday night, as they outshot the Chicago Blackhawks 49 to 20 in a 4-1 win and generated 21 high-danger scoring chances.
With only 14 games left to play before what will hopefully be a lengthy playoff run, it feels as though the team knows that it is time to elevate into top form, particularly because blowing their lead in the division and setting up a tough opening round matchup versus the Minnesota Wild.
There has been one major positive development for the Avalanche lately as their power play has succeeded on 25.0% of opportunities over the last five games, after being a significant concern for the majority of the year.
Newcomer Nazem Kadri is a quality five-on-four skater and will likely continue to help the top unit, but the more notable change seems to be shifting Nathan MacKinnon to the goal line and allowing Martin Necas to work up top.
While MacKinnon is the superior overall player, his power play shooting percentage has not been good over the last two seasons, and the new iteration seems to provide some highly threatening new wrinkles.
Scott Wedgewood is likely to get the start in goal after resting on Friday. Wedgewood has played to a +13.3 GSAx rating and a .916 save percentage across 38 appearances this season.
The Avalanche are still dealing with some notable injuries, as captain Gabriel Landeskog, Artturi Lehkonen, and Logan O'Connor are on the IR.
Washington Capitals
The Capitals overachieved last season in finishing with an Eastern Conference-leading 111 points and likely were not quite as good as their record suggested. This season, Washington appears to be fairly unlucky to be more or less eliminated from the playoff hunt, as it holds strong underlying numbers at even strength and a +56 goal differential.
It still seems logical to conclude that 2024-25 Jack Adams Award winner Spencer Carbery is a high-quality head coach and the right man to lead the Capitals into the new era. That new era seems to be on the horizon, as top prospect Cole Hutson has now made his NHL debut, while Alex Ovechkin may potentially retire after this season.
The Capitals play a well-structured game and, when at their best, feature a back end that helps to create offense effectively and extend sequences in the offensive zone. While the team is undoubtedly well coached and features a great defensive core, there is a distinct lack of elite offensive talent up front.
Washington's power play has been a huge concern this season, as it holds a success rate of 16.5%. Most power play units feature several different wrinkles and skaters are much less static on controlled setups than in years past, but the Capitals unit looks quite dated in looking to lean on Ovechkin's one-timer.
It's completely logical to let the greatest player in franchise history, Ovechkin, continue to skate big minutes with the man advantage, but he's obviously far from what he used to be, and his usage hampers the team at this point.
The Capitals' penalty kill has also been quite mediocre, with a 79.9% success rate, a mark that is particularly unimpressive considering the brilliant level of play they have received in goal from Logan Thompson this season.
Washington holds a 50.13% expected goal share at even strength over the last ten games, which is seemingly a fair depiction of its games based on the eye-test. It holds a record of 5-4-1 in that span and has played several tight games where it has leaned on Thompson to try to compensate for a lack of high-end finishing ability.
Thompson currently holds a league-leading +28.8 GSAx rating and a .915 save percentage across 48 games, which is only a tick below Wedgewood's league-leading mark of .916.
Avalanche vs. Capitals Prediction
The Capitals continue to look fundamentally sound at even strength, but are hampered by a lack of high-end offensive talent and a poor power play. Colorado has seemingly tightened up its game this week as it looks to lock into form for the postseason, and based on how spectacular it was defensively in the first half of the season, it holds extremely high upside in that regard, even if it will always be most known for its elite offensive threats.
Carbery's Capitals do not seem to be giving up by any means, but it seems unlikely that they will be able to muster much offense in this matchup versus an Avalanche side that drives possession quite effectively and limits opponents' scoring opportunities as a result.
Washington likely has one method to succeed in this matchup, and that's attempting to avoid full-fledged defensive breakdowns and leaning on Thompson in a game where it likely will not generate many true grade "A" scoring chances.
My lean would be with the Avalanche at -155 in terms of a side, but a total of 6.5 seems quite high for any Capitals game right now. While Colorado plays a high-event style, its last two matchups suggest it is raising its level of urgency defensively, and this is a good matchup to continue cleaning things up in that regard.
At -130 or better, I see value backing this game to feature under 6.5 goals.
Pick: Under 6.5 Goals -120 (Bet365, Play to -130)
