The Colorado Avalanche (41-10-9) and Dallas Stars (38-14-9) meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 8:00 p.m. EST at American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Avalanche are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6 (-115o / -107u). The Avalanche are a -120 favorite to win outright, while the Stars are -100 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Avalanche vs. Stars predictions and NHL picks.
Avalanche vs. Stars Odds, Pick
| Avalanche Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +200 | 6 -115o / -107u | -120 |
| Stars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -247 | 6 -115o / -107u | -100 |
- Avalanche vs. Stars Spread: Avalanche -1.5 (+200), Stars +1.5 (-247)
- Avalanche vs. Stars Over/Under: 6 (-115o / -107u)
- Avalanche vs. Stars Moneyline: Avalanche -120, Stars -100
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Avalanche vs. Stars Preview
Colorado Avalanche
Colorado has made a handful of decent moves at the trade deadline, and I only expect it to get better.
The Avalanche picked up Nic Roy from the Maple Leafs, who is an exceptional middle-six forward, and defensemen Brett Kulak from the Oilers and Nick Blankenburg from the Predators.
And as of this writing, I imagine the Avs are done unless Val Nichushkin gets sent packing. But regardless, Colorado is in such a great position.
The Avs didn’t end the first half of the season on a high note before the Olympics, but it doesn’t change the fact that they’re likely the best team in the NHL right now.
Since returning from the break, their 5-on-5 expected goals are second at 60.02 xGF%, and on the defensive end, they are ninth at 2.33 xGA/60.
However, I think what’s most shocking is how inefficient their power play has been. With stars like Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar, you’d think that the power play would be dominant, but in fact it’s only converting at an unlikely 15.5% clip.
Luckily, the penalty kill makes up for it, ranking third in the league with an 83% success rate.
Lastly, in goaltending, I think the Avs are in a really good position. I don’t think MacKenzie Blackwood or Scott Wedgewood are dynamos, but they’ve held their ground, each with at least a .914 SV% and a 10.4 GSAx.
Dallas Stars
With how well the Avs have been since coming back from the Olympics, you know who has been even better? The Stars.
And it hasn’t been very close, which is insane because they don't have Mikko Rantanen back from injury.
The Stars’ 5-on-5 offense is nine points better than the Avs and is night-and-day better on the defensive end. Since returning from the break, the Stars are playing to a 1.85 xGA/60, and number two is 17 points below Dallas.
Not only that, the Stars have won 10 straight games, outscoring their opponents 19-5 in their last five.
I can’t imagine we’ll get pure dominance tonight since Colorado is on Dallas’ level, but that’s just to pinpoint how exceptional it has been down the stretch.
Contrary to its opponents, the Stars are converting on the power play at an insane 30% rate, which is second in the league, and 11th on the penalty kill, holding opponents to 80.3% success.
I do wonder about the goaltending, though. Jake Oettinger is known to be a big-game performer, but last season’s Game 7 against the Oilers shut that argument down real quick.
And this season, he’s been fairly mediocre, but now in the two starts back, he’s playing to at least a .920 SV%, and for the season, he’s at a -0.9 GSAx.
Avalanche vs. Stars Prediction
It’s insane that we’re in March, and yet, this will be the first time all season that these teams square off. There will be two more times that they will face each other.
With how red-hot Dallas has been, I’m actually very surprised at how the Stars are the underdog in this situation.
Granted, it’s close, but I guess that because of the trades that the Avs made, they seemed a tad more appealing to ride with.
I think this game will be as close as it perceives.
Dallas is coming off two days' rest, and whenever the Stars find themselves in that position, it usually ends in a win or an overtime loss.
In six of the eight games that the Stars have come off two or more days' rest, they’ve either won or found themselves in a one-goal duel. Three of those went into overtime.
Given that both of these franchises are essentially in the same boat, I really like my chances of picking this to go into overtime.
Pick: Regulation Tie (+275)
