Broncos vs. Bengals Odds & Betting Predictions - December 28, 2024

Value

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D. Sample ⬆️ 1.5 Receptions (+140 @ DraftKings) THE BLITZ 📽️: 1.81 Recs I know, I know... this isn't that fun of a play, but hear me out... Drew Sample has quietly carved out a consistent role in the Cincinnati Bengals' offense, despite being overshadowed by Mike Gesicki. While Gesicki is considered the primary pass-catching tight end for the Bengals, Sample has actually been on the field far more. Last week, Sample played 30 passing snaps compared to Gesicki’s 16, and he also received a better pass route grade. This significant playing time and solid route-running have allowed Sample to register at least one reception in each of his last five games, with two or more targets in three of those contests. Given his steady involvement and the +140 odds on his reception prop, there’s a solid floor here, making this a promising bet at a great price. Looking at the matchup, the Denver Broncos have been relatively generous to tight ends in terms of volume. They allow the 12th most receptions per game to tight ends (5.33) and the 5th most targets per game (8.07), which bodes well for Sample’s chances. Additionally, Sample runs most of his routes inline—last week, 22 of his 30 routes were run this way—and Denver has allowed the 8th highest inline target rate (12.5%) and the 10th highest checkdown rate (9.8%). These trends suggest that Sample could see a few easy targets in the short and intermediate areas of the field, especially if the Broncos continue to give up volume in these areas. While it's not the flashiest play, the value on Sample’s reception prop is significant. Considering his consistent role, Denver's defense tendencies, and the favorable price at +140, this bet has strong potential for a return. I would expect this line to be closer to +120 or worse, making it a solid value pick for those looking for a low-risk wager.

Great balls of fire

@gogo_dino Best Bet

2U guy. Update: How free was that?!

TAN Pod / best bets

Raybon 2

These teams have been over machines this year, but I think the market has over-corrected. I've got this at 45.2, aided by the likely return of corner Riley Moss.