The Virginia Cavaliers take on the SMU Mustangs in Dallas, Texas. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Virginia is favored by 1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -140. The total is set at 153.5 points.
Here’s my Virginia vs. SMU prediction and college basketball picks for January 17, 2026.
Virginia vs SMU Prediction
My Pick: Over 153.5 (Play to 157)
My Virginia vs SMU best bet is on the over. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Virginia vs. SMU Odds
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 153.5 -110 / -110 | -140 |
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -105 | 153.5 -110 / -110 | +120 |
- Virginia vs SMU spread: Virginia -1.5
- Virginia vs SMU over/under: 153.5 points
- Virginia vs SMU moneyline: Virginia -140, SMU +120
Virginia vs SMU College Basketball Betting Preview
Virginia Basketball
Virginia has been one of the season’s biggest surprises, and it’s fair to say year one under Ryan Odom has been a resounding success thus far.
The Cavaliers have surged into the top 15 of the NET (as well as KenPom and Bart Torvik), firmly positioning themselves in the national conversation rather than simply fighting for tournament security. The Cavs are also 16th in Wins Above Bubble, indicating that their resume is keeping up with their predictive metrics.
Most impressively, Virginia has brought its success on the road. Virginia already owns away wins at Louisville and NC State, both projected NCAA Tournament teams, proving that the Hoos are not just a John Paul Jones Arena mirage.
The reason is simple: The Cavaliers play a style that travels. They dominate the offensive glass, ranking fifth nationally in offensive rebound rate, per KenPom, and they're elite at taking away the rim, sitting ninth nationally in opponent rim field goal percentage allowed, per CBB Analytics.
That interior control is anchored by the center tandem of Johann Grunloh and Ugonna Onyenso, who protect the paint, erase mistakes and generate extra possessions.
Belgian rookie Thijs de Ridder has been do-it-all star who could be an all-conference honoree at season’s end, impacting games with his versatility and feel to go with his smooth scoring touch.
The perimeter got most of the attention in the transfer portal, and Odom’s deep group of guards and wings has delivered. Malik Thomas scores like he breathes, and underrated rookie Chance Mallory is an efficiency dynamo who gets big minutes off the bench.
Sam Lewis, Dallin Hall, and Jacari White (back from a wrist injury) provide reliable secondary scoring and lineup flexibility.
With balance, toughness and a scheme that travels, Virginia isn’t just a good story — the Cavaliers are pushing their way into legitimate Final Four contender territory.
SMU Basketball
SMU has emerged into a legitimate NCAA Tournament contender under Andy Enfield, displaying quick progress after transitioning to the ACC last season. The Mustangs sit 32nd in the NET and 25th in Wins Above Bubble, underscoring a resume that looks increasingly stable as league play unfolds.
Dangerously, though, they’re coming off an emotional high: a dramatic half-court buzzer-beater from Boopie Miller to earn a cardiac win over Virginia Tech. That kind of moment can either propel a team forward or introduce a tricky letdown spot.
The engine of this team is its guard play. Miller, Jaron Pierre Jr. and B.J. Edwards form a balanced, interchangeable trio that shares both creation and shot-making responsibilities.
Defenses have no single pressure point to attack; all three can initiate offense, hit pull-ups and punish closeouts.
That balance makes SMU particularly dangerous in the open floor, where the Mustangs rank in the 98th percentile nationally in transition efficiency, per Synergy.
Inside, Enfield has leaned more than expected on a massive frontcourt pairing. Freshman Jaden Toombs and Turkish sophomore Samet Yigitoglu provide real size, rim pressure and rebounding, although lineups featuring both together have been clunky on both ends of the court and have underwhelming on/off numbers.
That pairing highlights SMU’s defensive issues. The Ponies have struggled mightily defending in conference play thus far, ranking 15th of 18 teams in defensive efficiency through four games.
The schedule has been unforgiving, but if Enfield & Co. cannot plug some of the holes, defense could be the flaw that prevents SMU’s first NCAA Tournament berth since 2017.
Virginia vs. SMU Betting Analysis
SMU has been a tough out at home, knocking off tough foes like Murray State, Butler, UNC and Virginia Tech already in Dallas.
But Virginia will not be intimidated whatsoever, having gone 3-1 ATS with a +9.6 average cover margin this season.
Virginia could really lean on SMU inside here. The Cavs’ onslaught on the offensive glass is hard for anyone to withstand, but SMU’s 192nd ranking in defensive rebound rate spells major concern. Butler racked up 16 second chances back in mid-November, while mid-major opponent Arkansas State racked up 21.
Those are SMU’s two highest-ranked opponents in offensive rebound rate, so Virginia’s elite-level boarding is likely a huge issue.
The Ponies’ biggest advantage is their mid-range marksmanship. The Mustangs rank just 312th in average 2-point attempt distance, per KenPom, but they still are top-50 in 2-point percentage. Miller and Pierre are masters of the pull-up arts, and that's critical against Virginia’s elite shot blocking around the rim.
Those two crucial advantages point me to the over. I like Virginia to get a road win, but I’ll lock in a wager on the total because I expect both teams to be efficient on the offensive end.
My Pick: Over 153.5 (Play to 157)
