The Tennessee Volunteers play the Michigan Wolverines in the Elite 8 of the NCAA Tournament from Chicago, Illinois. Tip-off is set for 2:15 p.m. ET on CBS.
Michigan is favored by -7.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -375. Meanwhile, Tennessee is the underdog at +7.5 with a moneyline of +295. The total is set at 146.5 points.
Here’s my Tennessee vs. Michigan predictions and college basketball picks for March 29, 2026.
Tennessee vs Michigan Elite 8 Prediction
My Pick: Michigan -7.5
My Tennessee vs Michigan best bet is on the Wolverines to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Tennessee vs Michigan Odds: Spread & Over/Under
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -108 | 146.5 -105o / -115u | +295 |
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -112 | 146.5 -105o / -115u | -375 |
- Tennessee vs Michigan spread: Michigan -7.5
- Tennessee vs Michigan over/under: 146.5 points
- Tennessee vs Michigan moneyline: Tennessee +250, Michigan -310
Tennessee vs Michigan Polymarket Odds
Current odds: TEN 25% · MIC 76% · NCAAB
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Tennessee vs Michigan Betting Preview
Tennessee Basketball
Tennessee pulled off an upset over No. 2 seed Iowa State in the Sweet 16, beating them 76-62. That win was the perfect example of Rick Barnes' basketball. Keep the game to a lower possession battle and hold the opposition to below 1.00 ppp.
Tennessee ranks 11th in defensive efficiency, while holding teams to 49% shooting from inside-the-arc (67th) and 30% from 3 (13th). The only real cause for concern is fouling as the Vols rank 200th in defensive free-throw rate.
March tends to be where offenses falter under Barnes. I don’t view this Volunteers team as the exception.
I don’t expect Tennessee to be able to hang with a faster paced Michigan team if the pace gets out of whack. The Volunteers rank 297th in adjusted tempo and drain over 18 seconds off the shot clock on average.
My issue with Tennessee’s offense is how ineffective it is on the first shot — ranking outside the top-150 nationally in 2-point and 3-point percentage. The only thing keeping this offense above water is a nation-leading 45% offensive rebound rate. That works against smaller teams that don’t embrace physical play. Michigan is the polar opposite of that description, though.
Ja’Kobi Gillespie and Nate Ament are the only two players with more than 10.5 points per game for Tennessee. Gillespie leads the team with 18 ppg, while Ament is second with 17.
Ament often uses his 6-10, athletic frame to drive and draw fouls, while Gillespie loves to play the pick-and-roll game. Neither is a great shooter percentage-wise, but they’ll need to hit some 3s against Michigan.
Michigan Basketball
Michigan continues to look the part of a one seed and now finds itself one game from the Final Four.
The Wolverines have another gear that nobody else can rival. They trailed Alabama, 49-47 at the half in the Sweet 16 — and allowed just 28 second-half points to one of the top offensive teams in the country.
But I want to focus more on the Wolverines defense to start this preview.
Unless you can throw Aday Mara in a pick and roll for 40 minutes, I don’t know how you beat Michigan. Alabama did it for 20, but Michigan adjusted its pick-and-roll coverage and cruised to a win.
It’s tough to score on Michigan’s size. It holds opponents to 44% shooting on 2s, which ranks fourth nationally. Mara deters a ton of shots and blocks almost three per game and Morez Johnson is just a brick wall inside. Opponents also need luck on their size to shoot well from deep against Michigan, as it holds teams to 30% from downtown.
In this matchup, I expect Michigan to keep Tennessee off the glass. I touched on how the Vols’ 44% offensive rebound rate bails them out, but Michigan gives up offensive boards 27% of the time. It’ll force Tennessee to make shots.
I truly believe Michigan is close to unbeatable and can beat anybody by 10+ when it shots 40% from deep.
In the Round of 32 against Saint Louis, Michigan shot 47.8% from deep and 48.1% in the Sweet 16 against Alabama. The result was a pair of covers and dominant wins.
Johnson and Mara are there to screen, score inside and offensive rebound. The rest of the lineup can shoot from deep. Yaxel Lendeborg, Elliot Cadeau and Nimari Burnett all shoot between 37% and 38% from deep. And Trey McKenney can come off the bench and shoot close to 40% from deep.
Transition offense is vital for Michigan. It forces teams into late clock situations, bad 3s and kickstarts the Wolverines’ offense. Don’t get it twisted, they can score in the half-court. But things get scary when Michigan strings together a couple of stops to get the offense rolling.
Tennessee vs Michigan March Madness Pick
I’m laying the points with Michigan. I did the same in the last two rounds and don’t see a reason to stray away from it.
Tennessee wants to get physical and muck things up. Meanwhile, Michigan is more than fine with physical play, but can get up and down the court and tire out a slower-paced Tennessee team.
Florida playing Tennessee is the closest comp I have to Michigan. The Gators won by 24 in Gainesville and the pace of Florida was a bit too much for the Vols. I expect the same in this matchup.
My Pick: Michigan -7.5
