The Illinois State Redbirds play the Dayton Flyers in the NIT quarterfinals from Dayton, Ohio. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Dayton is favored by -7.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -320. The total is set at 138.5 points.
Here’s my Illinois State vs. Dayton predictions and college basketball picks for March 25, 2026.
Illinois State vs Dayton Prediction
My Pick: Dayton -7.5
My Illinois State vs Dayton best bet is on the Flyers to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Illinois State vs Dayton Odds
| Illinois State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 138.5 -115o / -105u | +255 |
| Dayton Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 138.5 -115o / -105u | -320 |
- Illinois State vs Dayton spread: Dayton -7.5
- Illinois State vs Dayton over/under: 138.5 points
- Illinois State vs Dayton moneyline: Illinois State +255, Dayton -320
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Illinois State vs Dayton College Basketball Betting Preview
Illinois State has strung a pair of nice wins together, having defeated Kent State and Wake Forest to gain entry into the quarterfinals of the NIT.
The defense shut down Kent State’s high-flying attack and really did a nice job of frustrating Wake Forest in the final 10 minutes of the second half. The Redbirds will look to put together their first three-game win streak since the turn of the calendar to 2026.
Chase Walker leads the Redbirds in scoring (13.7 PPG), while Johnny Kinziger averages 11.6 and is the team's leading 3-point shooter.
The Redbirds don't get to the stripe frequently, and they're a poor offensive rebounding team (especially since going with a smaller lineup and playing Landon Wolf more at the four-spot).
Illinois State is going to have to hit some triples in order to stay in this game against Dayton.
The defense has improved this year under Ryan Pedon, and we've seen the stop unit contest more deep shots while rebounding more opponent misses.
The Redbirds don't have a ton of size in the post and struggle blocking or altering shots inside the painted area.
We haven’t seen a high-pressure system used regularly and Illinois State was just average this season in the Missouri Valley Conference in terms of forcing opponent turnovers.
On the flip side, Dayton is a strong team in this NIT field and getting to play at home for the first time in the postseason should boost the performance for the Flyers.
We saw Dayton come on late after getting some key players back from injury, and with wins over George Mason, George Washington and Saint Louis twice, this group peaked at the right time.
The Flyers couldn't get over the hump against VCU, so there was no NCAA Tournament invite. This season has to leave so many questions unanswered about what a fully healthy Dayton team resume would've looked like on Selection Sunday with a couple more victories.
The offense deploys a balanced attack, with Javon Bennett and De’Shayne Montgomery leading the scoring efforts while averaging 30 points per game between the two. Bennett is an excellent ball handler and the leading distributor for Dayton.
Amael L’Etang and Malcolm Thomas have each missed time for Dayton, but Jacob Conner and Keonte Jones have rotated at the four-spot, and Dayton has a much higher minutes continuity percentage down the stretch.
This offense gets to the foul line more frequently than anybody in the country, and the Flyers have a size advantage in the paint.
Defensively, Dayton excels at forcing turnovers, which they do on 21% of opponent possessions. The Flyers force contested jumpers in the mid-range, and this is an above average defensive rebounding team.
I expect a rebounding advantage for Dayton against Illinois State, but the task will be staying on shooters and not giving up open looks from deep.
This line sets Dayton as a 7.5-point favorite in the contest with a total set at 139.5. I'm going to lay it here with Dayton.
Dayton is finally getting its players healthy, and this group is playing well together as a team. I like the offensive matchup here for the Flyers and their ability to get the ball into L’Etang so he can get good looks at the rim. He should have opportunities to score or accrue trips to the foul line.
Bennett and Montgomery are playing really well right now, and the backcourt is dangerous for the Flyers. Dayton shouldn’t turn the ball over frequently, and I expect the guards to be able to break down the Illinois State defense and find open looks off the drive.
This will lead to free-throw opportunities, and if Walker gets into foul trouble early, Dayton will feast in the painted area.
Dayton forces a high number of turnovers, and I worry about Illinois State being able to protect the basketball, something it struggled with at times this season.
With Dayton playing at home for the first time in the postseason and in what will be its home finale, I expect a big motivational and crowd edge for the Flyers.
Dayton is too talented, and I expect it to win this game by double digits.
My Pick: Dayton -7.5
