The New York Yankees host the Seattle Mariners on July 10, 2025. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on ROOT Sports NW.
Find my MLB betting preview and Mariners vs Yankees prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Mariners vs Yankees Prediction
- Mariners vs Yankees pick: Mariners ML -108
My Mariners vs Yankees best bet is Mariners moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mariners vs Yankees Odds, Lines
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 9 -115o / -105u | -118 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 9 -115o / -105u | -102 |
Mariners vs Yankees Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Bryan Woo (SEA) | Stat | RHP Marcus Stroman (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-4 | W-L | 1-1 |
| 2.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.2 |
| 2.77/3.19 | ERA /xERA | 7.45/5.75 |
| 3.46/3.50 | FIP / xFIP | 6.24/5.16 |
| 0.96 | WHIP | 1.66 |
| 20.1% | K-BB% | 2.2% |
| 39.3% | GB% | 50.0% |
| 104 | Stuff+ | 91 |
| 110 | Location+ | 96 |
Nick Martin’s Mariners vs Yankees Betting Preview
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview: Woo Continues to Dominate
It will be strength on strength in this matchup as one of the AL's best starters, Woo, attempts to shut down a Yankees lineup that has produced 31 runs over the last four games. Woo has earned a spot on the AL All-Star team with his tremendous start to the season, holding an ERA of 2.77 across 107 1/3 innings.
Woo finished the 2024 season with an ERA of 2.89, and some of his underlying metrics suggest he has actually improved year-over-year. He holds an xFIP of 3.50 and a strikeout minus walk-rate of 20.1%. He holds a Stuff+ rating of 104 and a Pitching+ rating of 112, and has allowed a batting average of .209.
Woo's recent form in particular has been excellent, as he has allowed an ERA of 2.03 in his last five starts. He's struck out 10.16 batters per nine in those outings, and holds an xFIP of 3.33. His road ERA is worse than his mark at home at the league's most pitcher friendly ballpark, but his xFIP of 3.31 and strikeout-minus-walk rate of 21.4% suggest that he has not pitched any worse in visiting ballparks.
Seattle's bullpen has remained a strength recently, as its relievers hold an ERA of 3.29 and an xFIP of 3.70 over the last 30 days.
The Mariners will provide a tough matchup for Stroman, as they rank sixth in wRC+ versus righties this season and own a weighted on base average of .322. They also rank fourth in wRC+ over the last 30 days.
New York Yankees Betting Preview: Can Offense Carry Stroman?
Stroman has returned in better form than we have seen throughout the last two seasons, having allowed an ERA of 3.60 in his first two starts back, though his underlying results have still been quite shaky. In those outings he holds an xFIP of 4.62, and been hard-hit 45% of the time. He also holds a Pitching+ rating of 86 in those two outings, which is even worse than his mark of 90 dating back to the start of last year.
Throughout a small sample of 19 and 1/3 innings of work this season, Stroman holds a strikeout minus walk-rate of 2.2% and a WHIP of 1.66. He holds an xFIP of 5.16 and an xERA of 5.75.
The Yankees bullpen has struggled over the last month of play, allowing an ERA of 4.82 and an xFIP of 4.31.
New York's lineup ranks first in baseball in wRC+ dating back to the start of last season, and to this point has still been even more effective in 2025 despite losing Juan Soto based on its wRC+ of 122. Over the last 30 days it ranks 11th in wRC+ as depth pieces such as Anthony Volpe have struggled mightily, but big picture should continue to be viewed as a top three offence at worst.
Mariners vs Yankees Predictions
Woo will have his hands full with the Yankees red-hot lineup in this matchup, but it still seems that we are getting a pretty good price to back Seattle given the disparity between these two starters. After an excellent 2024 campaign, Woo has remained one of the league's best starters this season, while Stroman appears to be washed up.
Stroman has fared well in terms of ERA since returning, but the underlying results from those outings suggest he is the same pitcher that has struggled mightily dating back to the first half of last season. Seattle's offense has hit right-handed pitching quite well this season, and should be able to manage plenty of hard-contact off of Stroman early on.
Backing the Mariners to win the first five innings at -130 also appears to hold some value, however given the strength of their bullpen I'm happy to take -108 instead and risk a late collapse given the price disparity.
Pick: Mariners ML -108
Mariners vs Yankees Parlay
- Bryan Woo to Record a Win
- Marcus Stroman Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed
Parlay odds: +210 (bet365)
This simple two-leg parlay on bet365 looks to be worth a small bet, targeting an ugly outing from Stroman coupled with a respectable outing from Woo.
Woo has earned eight wins in his 17 starts this season and has lasted at least five innings in every single start. As outlined, it seems likely to believe that Stroman will get lit up in this matchup, and if that is the case Woo will have a great opportunity to leave in line for a win.
