The Baltimore Orioles host the New York Mets on Thursday, July 10, 2025. First pitch for the first game of a doubleheader from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 12:05 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
Find my Mets vs Orioles prediction for Thursday afternoon below.
My Mets vs Orioles Prediction
- Mets vs Orioles picks: Over 9 (-122 | Play to -130)
My Mets vs Orioles best bet is Over 9. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Orioles Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 9 -110o / -110u | -130 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 9 -110o / -110u | +110 |
Mets vs Orioles Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP David Peterson (NYM) | Stat | RHP Charlie Morton (BAL) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-4 | W-L | 5-7 |
| 1.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.5 |
| 3.18 / 4.19 | ERA / xERA | 5.47 / 4.33 |
| 3.51 / 3.64 | FIP / xFIP | 4.43 / 4.09 |
| 1.27 | WHIP | 1.55 |
| 11.6% | K-BB% | 13.8% |
| 57% | GB% | 41.9% |
| 89 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 100 | Location+ | 96 |
Tony Sartori's Mets vs Orioles Preview
New York Mets Betting Preview: A Fall Off for Peterson?
Now is the time to sell high on David Peterson. Despite a 3.18 ERA this season, Peterson owns a 4.19 expected ERA (xERA) and ranks in the 20th percentile or lower in expected batting average (xBA), average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
This expected regression could come to fruition against Baltimore, a team he is 0-1 against over the past three meetings with a 4.26 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. The good news for Peterson is that he should receive an abundance of run support.
Entering this matchup, New York ranks in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, slugging percentage, OPS and home runs. That success is likely to continue against Charlie Morton, with a substantial amount of data to back it up.
Through 224 combined plate appearances against Morton, this current Mets roster boasts a .258 batting average, .441 slugging percentage and .363 weighted on-base average (wOBA). That's a large sample size, and Morton's performance this season creates additional concern.
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview: Nothing to Trust on the Mound
Through 19 appearances, Morton is 5-7 with a 5.47 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. His underlying metrics are equally poor.
This season, the veteran right-hander ranks in the 38th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and walk rate. These struggles are likely to continue against a dangerous New York lineup.
In his latest start against the Mets, Morton surrendered five runs on six hits in fewer than three innings.
Following Morton is a fade-worthy bullpen. Entering this contest, Baltimore's relief corps ranks in the bottom half of the league in ERA, fielding independent pitching (FIP) and wins above replacement (WAR).
All signs point to the over in this matchup.
Mets vs Orioles Prediction, Betting Analysis
The lone concern is the Orioles’ inconsistent lineup. That said, they are capable of generating power, ranking in the top half of the league in slugging percentage and home runs.
Furthermore, the current Baltimore roster sports a .265 xBA, .441 expected slugging percentage (xSLG) and .324 expected wOBA (xwOBA) through 33 combined plate appearances against Peterson. Finally, the forecast calls for a humid afternoon with mild winds blowing out to center field.
Pick: Over 9 (-122 | Play to -130)
Moneyline
I lean toward New York, but I don't want to back Peterson.
Run Line (Spread)
I also like New York to cover, but I'm staying away for the same reason listed above.
Over/Under
As mentioned, I'm betting over 9.
