Throughout the Major League Baseball playoffs, I will provide a daily breakdown summarizing my thoughts on futures and individual games for that day.
Below, I will address how to handle betting on these playoff series, whether on the series moneyline or on a game-by-game basis, while using my daily MLB Model projections.
You can find my projections for every MLB game in the Action Network App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub (which you can bookmark).
You can also shop for the best lines on our odds page.
Using my projections, where can we find actionable value on Tuesday's wild-card matchups?
Series Moneyline Corner
First, let's take a look at my projected series prices for the Wild Card round:
Based upon my projected lines, you can play the Phillies to win their series at -186 or better against a depleted Marlins squad — without their ace Sandy Alcantara or top prospect Eury Perez, and with NL batting champion Luis Arraez laboring through an ankle injury.
The Phillies have the advantage in all facets of this series and I project them as at least a 57% favorite in all three games. Additionally, I project the defending NL champions to sweep this series 2-0 behind Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola 37% of the time (+170 implied odds) and would play a Phillies 2-0 or -1.5 games prop at +185 or better at a similar edge to the series price.
The Brandon Woodruff injury decreased Milwaukee's series win probability by at least 4% — moving my projected fair line from -170 to -144. I would want something closer to -132 to back Milwaukee or +155 to back Arizona with a series ticket before Game 1; otherwise, we'll focus on the single-game market, where I do have a wager.
Similarly, I don't expect to place a series bet before Game 1 on the Rangers or Rays; my price targets are -145 for Tampa Bay or +170 for Texas. As I'll discuss below, I don't expect to have a bet on a side or total for Game 1 either.
As I mentioned in my playoff preview, you can bet the Twins to -128 or better in the wild-card series market . I'll favor Minnesota in all three games at Target Field despite their 19-year streak without a playoff series win. Conversely, FanGraphs would make the Blue Jays a 57% favorite in Game 1 and a 54% favorite in a presumed Game 3 matchup between Chris Bassitt and Joe Ryan.
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +128 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -152 |
Jordan Montgomery vs. Tyler Glasnow (full projections here)
Jordan Montgomery provided a steadying hand to a banged-up Rangers rotation over 11 starts (2.79 ERA, 3.83 xFIP). Still, pitching models (94 Stuff+, 101 Location+, 95 Pitching+ in the second half for Texas) aren't nearly as high on the southpaw as they are on Tyler Glasnow (122 Stuff+, 101 Location+, 110 Pitching+).
The towering righty with 80-grade hair ranked sixth in Pitching+ among the 177 qualified second-half starters (min. 20 IP), alongside fellow playoff starters Zack Wheeler (1st), Grayson Rodriguez (3rd), Brandon Woodruff (4th), Bobby Miller (5th), Corbin Burnes (8th) and Spencer Strider (10th).
The Rays have the vastly superior bullpen, too, pacing all teams in both xFIP and Pitching+ in the second half, compared to rankings of 21st and 17th, respectively, for the Rangers.
And while the Rangers seemingly have the better offense looking at the lineup card, the Rays had the better offense over the entire season (118 wRC+ vs. 114 wRC+), over the final two months of the season (120 vs. 109) and in the past 30 days (117 vs. 113). They have consistently ranked a few percentage points better against lefties than righties throughout those seasonal splits.
Infielder Junior Caminero, who raked across three levels (31 homers, .976 OPS across 117 games at Single-A, High-A, and Double-A this year), provides another potent right-handed bat, and the 20-year-old prospect could be the breakout star of the 2023 postseason.
Texas has a reasonably neutral split for the season but has performed better against righties than lefties of late. Still, I would need at least +140 to back the Rangers on the moneyline.
In the prop market, I'm interested in finding ways to bet Caminero for the vibes or Yandy Diaz for reasons I can enumerate more clearly: (1) Diaz seems due for a big hit against Montgomery since he's consistently put the ball in play (lifetime 3-for-16, 5 BB, 0 K), (2) he excels against fastballs and curveballs (combined 73% usage for Montgomery vs. righties), (3) he handles lefties (career 148 wRC+) better than righties (125 wrC+), and (4) he hits at the top of the lineup against lefties.
While Diaz is essentially a coin flip in the betting market to go Over 1.5 total bases, I would project that line closer to 1.95 for Tuesday's matchup and poke that prop to -110.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +172 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -102 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -210 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -116 |
Kevin Gausman vs. Pablo Lopez (full projections here)
In addition to Minnesota's Wild Card Round line, I also show value in their moneylines for Game 1 for the first five innings (F5) and the full game.
Kevin Gausman finished with a higher fWAR (5.3 to 4.5) than Pablo Lopez, but I'll take the latter's full-season indicators (2.98 xERA, 3.29 xFIP, 109 Pitching+) over the former's results (3.82 xERA, 3.22 xFIP, 105 Pitching+). Moreover, Lopez seemed to be peaking over the season's final month (110 Pitching+), while Gausman (98 Stuff+, 100 Pitching+) potentially ran out of steam.
Toronto's bullpen has slightly superior stats and indicators; however, the Twins stand to gain more from late-season additions Chris Paddack (106 Stuff+), Brock Stewart (104 Stuff+) and Louie Varland (117 Stuff+ on his fastball) — while moving some combination of Bailey Ober and Kenta Maeda to their relief corps — bringing these reliever groups relatively level.
Offensively, Minnesota has performed better against right-handed pitching throughout the year, in the second half, and over the past 30 days. So long as the Blue Jays are throwing right-handed pitchers, Minnesota has the offensive advantage, although the degree of that advantage depends upon the availability of both Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis.
The Blue Jays are the superior defensive club, and they catch everything in the outfield when they play the Daulton Varsho-Kevin Kiermaier-George Springer trio (combined +49 Defensive Runs Saved this season).
Still, you should bet the Twins' F5 line to be -124 and their full game line to be -113 for Tuesday's matchup.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -138 | 8 -114o / -106u | +152 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +115 | 8 -114o / -106u | -180 |
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Brandon Pfaadt vs. Corbin Burnes (full projections here)
Since Zac Gallen pitched last Friday (in a 2-1 loss to the Astros) to help Arizona in their wild-card push, rookie Brandon Pfaaft — the 2022 minor league strikeout leader (218 in 167 innings) — will take the ball on the road in Game 1 in the most prominent spot of his young career.
Pfaaft's 5.72 ERA, 4.58 xERA and 4.46 xFIP all mask his improvements as a pitcher at the MLB level throughout the season.
In his first stint — five starts in May — Pfaaft allowed 22 runs in 23 2/3 innings, alongside a 103 Stuff+, 100 Location+, and 102 Pitching+ rating. After some more seasoning — and another unsuccessful start on June 29 (six runs in two innings) — Pfaaft returned to the big leagues for good in late July, posting a respectable 4.22 ERA, 4.06 xFIP, and 19.1% K-BB% over his final 12 starts of the season, while showing improved pitch modeling metrics (103 Stuff+, 106 Location+) and ranking as a top 25 starting pitcher (among 173 qualified pitchers) over the second half of the season.
Corbin Burnes has also seen his level rise and fall throughout the year, but the former Cy Young winner ended his campaign on a high note, posting an MLB-best 146 Stuff+ and 117 Pitching+ rating over the season's final month.
Additionally, the Brewers potentially have the best bullpen in the NL (3.82 xFIP in the second half, 2nd in MLB) and likely an offensive advantage over Arizona — which has limped to the playoffs down the stretch (93 wRC+ vs. righties, 23rd in the second half; 80 wRC+, 26th in September).
Milwaukee is one of a handful of better defensive teams than Arizona, too, finishing second with 68 Defensive Runs Saved and first with 40 Outs Above Average, compared to the Diamondbacks, who ranked fourth (+46) and second (+32) by those same defensive measurements.
Arizona's one advantage is on the basepaths, where it can pressure Burnes (career 16.4% caught stealing rate) and either William Contreras (career 19.5% caught stealing rate) or Victor Caratini (career 21% caught stealing rate) behind the dish. For context, MLB's caught-stealing rate was 19.9% in 2023, 24.6% in 2022, and 24.4% in 2021, so all three are below average at steal prevention, even after adjusting for their 2023 sample.
I projected Arizona at +142 for Game 1 and would bet its moneyline at +154 or better. I set the F5 moneyline at +153 and would need at least +167 to add a first-half play.
With the total moving up from 7.5 to 8 — compared to my projected line of 7.31 — I'm adding a bet on the Under 8 (to -116) between two potentially peaking pitchers and two of the best defensive teams in baseball.
As an alternative approach to the Under, I don't mind betting the Over on the strikeout totals for both starting pitchers, either; I would set Burnes' line closer to 6.5 and Pfaaft's closer to 5 rather than current lines of 5.5 (-125) and 4.5 (+115) respectively.
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -166 | 7.5 -112o / -108u | +136 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +138 | 7.5 -112o / -108u | -162 |
Jesus Luzardo vs. Zack Wheeler (full projections here)
My projection aligns closely with the betting market for Tuesday's nightcap between NL East rivals.
I have continually handicapped Zack Wheeler as a top-three starting pitcher in baseball during the second half of the season when he posted a 112 Pitching+ rating — tied with Nick Pivetta for the best mark in baseball. However, Wheeler's results over the same span (3.08 ERA, 3.58 xFIP) aren't quite as dominant as the models would expect.
The results and underlying indicators for Jesus Luzardo fell off a bit in the second half (99 Pitching+, 4.12 xFIP, 17.1% K-BB%) compared to the first half of this season (103 Pitching+, 3.20 xFIP, 23% K-BB%), even though his velocity has held steady throughout the year.
The two bullpens are pretty comparable, but the Phillies project about one to two-tenths of a run better in terms of an ERA projection, and they have the advantages offensively, defensively and on the basepaths, too.
From a hitter prop perspective, the switch-hitting Josh Bell (lifetime 10-for-36, 3 HR, 2 BB, 8 K vs. Wheeler) caught my attention — since he'll always have the platoon advantage against Philadelphia's versatile bullpen. However, I only project Bell for 1.24 total bases on Tuesday, and betting Over 0.5 bases at -175 is a -EV proposition. I would need -140 or better to place that wager.
To reiterate, bet the Phillies on the series moneyline (to -185), or consider betting them to win either 2-0 or by 1.5 games (at +185 or better).
Sides and Totals for Tuesday, October 3
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+163, 0.75u) at WynnBet (Bet to +154)
- Arizona Diamondbacks / Milwaukee Brewers, Under 8 (-106, 0.75u at FanDuel) bet to -116
- Minnesota Twins F5 (-115, 0.75u) at Caesars (Bet to -124)
- Minnesota Twins (-105, 0.75u) at WynnBet (bet to -113)
Prop Bets for Tuesday, October 3
- Corbin Burnes, Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-125, 0.1u) at DraftKings
- Corbin Carroll, Over 0.5 Stolen Bases (+215, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- Yandy Diaz, Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100, 0.1u) at DraftKings with extra upside using our DraftKings Promo Code
- Pablo Lopez, Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+115, 0.1u) at DraftKings
- Brandon Pfaadt, Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+105, 0.1u) at DraftKings
