Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Thursday, July 10.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
For Thursday, I preview Mets vs. Orioles (Game 1), Mariners vs. Yankees and Rays vs. Red Sox.
My projections for every MLB game on Thursday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Thursday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Thursday, July 10
Mets vs. Orioles (Game 1)
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +115 | 9 -118o / -102u | -150 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -140 | 9 -118o / -102u | +125 |
David Peterson vs. Charlie Morton
The weather in Baltimore on Thursday will be warm (84 degrees, feel like 91) with 70% humidity and a light breeze.
David Peterson is struggling with his command of late. Over his last four starts, he has 16 strikeouts to 12 walks in 22 1/3 innings pitched. His ERA has climbed from 2.49 to 3.18 after those outings, and he had previously shown a 1.5-run gap between his ERA and xERA (4.18). That's finally regressing.
He had a sub-MLB average (13.4%) K-BB% over the past two seasons (13.3% for his career, 10.8% in 2024, 11.6% in 2025), and the models remain skeptical of his stuff (89 Stuff+, 4.51 botERA in 2025 compared to 90 and 4.82, respectively, for his career).
These teams used 11 relievers combined in an extra-inning game on Tuesday. Both will look for additional length from their starting pitchers in Game 1, even with a bonus off-day. They don't want to burn the bullpens in front of Tomoyuki Sugano and (likely) Justin Hagenman in Game 2.
I may add the over for Game 2 depending on the Game 1 lineups and bullpen usage, so keep an eye on me in the Action App.
Pick: Over 9 (Play to 9.5)
Mariners vs. Yankees
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 9 -115o / -105u | -125 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -165 | 9 -115o / -105u | +105 |
Bryan Woo vs. Marcus Stroman
The Yankees are the No. 1 offense overall, but they're specifically great against right-handed pitching (120 wRC+). Over the last 14 days, they have a 139 wRC+ against righties and a 159 wRC+ over the last seven days against the same split.
New York has an elite process at the plate, as it's No. 1 in SEAGER (a swing decision metric). From top to bottom, the Yankees' order is taking good at-bats, as even Anthony Volpe is preforming successfully.
The Mariners have the No. 3 offense away from T-Mobile Park (115 wRC+) and are better against right-handers (112) than left-handers (107).
On to the pitchers, Marcus Stroman has a career-low velocity and owns no pitch better than a 98 Stuff+. He had a Pitching+ of 102 in 2023 and 90 in 2024, but it's down to 89 in 2025.
Through five starts, Stroman has a 5.74 xERA, 5.16 xFIP and 2.2% K-BB% compared to a 4.94 xERA, 4.50 xFIP and 7.9% K-BB% in 2024.
He has a career-high 1.86 HR/9 despite a 50% ground-ball rate (55.8% for his career).
On the flip side, Bryan Woo is an elite arm who's headed to Atlanta for the All-Star Game due to numbers like this: 3.19 xERA, 20.1% K-BB%, 3.04 botERA and 112 Pitching+.
His career xFIP is a half-run better (3.53 vs. 4.03) and his K-BB% is about 5% better (21.7% vs. 16.3%) against right-handed hitters than left-handers.
He has a better xFIP and K-BB% on the road in 2025, but he has a 1.00 HR/9 at home and 1.30 HR/9 on the road, which aligns with his career split (1.04 HR/9 at home, 1.27 away).
Then look at the Park Factor differential from 2023-2025. T-Mobile Park has -17% runs and -8% home runs while Yankee Stadium has +0% runs and +20% home runs.
Take the over, as I'm projecting 9.64 runs in this one.
Pick: Over 9
Rays vs. Red Sox
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 9 -115o / -105u | -110 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -180 | 9 -115o / -105u | -110 |
Taj Bradley vs. Walker Buehler
This spot is setting up for cooler weather for July in Boston, as it'll be 70 degrees (feel like 73) with five mph winds blowing in from right field.
I don’t trust Walker Buehler (5.11 xERA, 8.8% K-BB%, 94 Pitching+, 4.56 botERA), whose velocity (94.2 mph) remains down from 2024 (95) and his overall career average (95.9).
However, Carlos Narvaez — who has +4 Stolen Base Runs Saved and +11 Defensive Runs Saved (first among catchers) — can help shut down the Rays' running game (they currently project as the No. 1 base-running team in the MLB).
Taj Bradley has a confusing profile, as indicators say he’s better than his 4.79 ERA (3.65 xERA, 4.12 xFIP). However, modeling data has career lows in Stuff+ (99), Pitching+ (92) and botERA (5.05).
His xERA is a career-best, but his xFIP is low and his K-BB% (11.3% in 2025, 18.5% in 2024, 19.6% in 2023) is also a career-worst.
These are two good offense, as Tampa Bay is first in wRC+ over the last 30 days and Boston is ninth against right-handed pitchers since the Rafael Devers trade. But my weather adjustment and Action Labs data point to the under hitting in this game.
I project 9.95 in weather-neutral July conditions at Fenway vs. 8.47 for today.
Action Labs systems for Wind Blowing In (PRO), 2H Under (Wind In) and Contrarian Unders for Winning Teams are being triggered. They have lifetime ROIs of 4.6%, 9.6% and 4.2%, respectively.
The PRO system has a record of 54-33-5 (62% win, +19.1% ROI) at Fenway Park.
Pick: Under 9
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Thursday, July 10
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Mets vs. Orioles Game 1 Over 9 (-109) to 9.5 (-105)
- Mariners vs. Yankees Over 9 (-109 to -115)
- Rays vs. Red Sox Under 9 (+100 to -110)
- Nationals vs. Cardinals Under 9 (-105 to -118)
