There are 11 games on the MLB calendar for Thursday, July 11 and the action gets started early with a Mets vs. Orioles doubleheader.
Yes, we have a pick for that early contest, but that's not all. We also have MLB picks for Marlins vs. Reds, Mariners vs. Yankees and Rangers vs. Angels. So, let's dig right in.
Today's MLB best bets are below.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12:05 p.m. | |
  | 5:10 p.m. | |
  | 7:05 p.m. | |
  | 9:38 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Allan Lem's Mets vs Orioles Best Bet: This Line's a Touch Too High
By Allan Lem
David Peterson gets a good matchup against an Orioles team that has ranked among the bottom five in baseball this season against left-handed pitching. The Orioles have a wRC+ of just 76, meaning they've produced runs at a clip that's way below average. They also rank last in ISO against left-handed pitching, and that doesn't bode well against Peterson, who has allowed just a 0.62 HR/9 this season.
The sweaty part of this bet will be Charlie Morton against the Mets. Morton has shown signs of decline this season, as his SwStr% is the lowest it's been since the 2017 season, but his underlying metrics suggest he hasn't been as bad as his surface stats appear. He has a 5.47 ERA, but just a 4.33 xERA and a 4.43 FIP, but just a 4.10 xFIP. This is obviously a scary spot against the Mets' power hitters, but I'm projecting this closer to five runs in the first five innings.
Pick: First 5 Innings Under 5.5 (-125)
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Derek Carty's Marlins vs Reds Best Bet: McLain Showing Value
By Derek Carty
There may be some value on Matt McLain's home runs prop. THE BAT X is projecting him to record 0.21 home runs, and oddsmakers are implying 0.16. The model believes there is a 19% chance he records at least one home run, so there is value on the over at +600.
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Pick: Matt McLain Over 0.5 Home Runs (+600)
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Kyle Murray's Mariners vs Yankees Best Bet: Back Woo, Fade Stroman
By Kyle Murray
If you have been around over the past couple months, you have seen me fading Bryan Woo's strikeouts prop fairly often. However, I do think he is a really solid pitcher, and that is backed up by his underlying metrics this season (3.42 SIERA, 3.50 xFIP).
He does have a tough matchup against the Yankees, but I give him a big edge over Marcus Stroman, who has really struggled this season. Stroman has a 5.33 SIERA and a 5.16 xFIP in limited innings, and this is a tough spot for him, as he does not generate many whiffs. Seattle has plenty of power to take advantage and I expect the Mariners to do so.
Pick: Seattle Mariners Moneyline (-120)
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Bet Labs' Rangers vs Angels Best Bet: System Suggests Under
By Bet Labs
The "Silent Sharp Unders" system targets regular-season MLB games in which both teams are performing well, yet the total has quietly dropped from open to close. These are games featuring competent, winning teams with recent success that are playing in stable weather conditions and in game with a closing total in a common scoring range.
Despite both teams showing strength, the market subtly favors the under — likely due to matchup specifics or pitching. By following this soft signal — when the public eye is more focused on a win streak than a total — this system finds value in betting against inflated scoring expectations.
Overall, this system has generated a 9% ROI and is 1243-982-87 (56%). This season, the system is 110-81-3 (58%), also a 9% ROI.
Pick: Under 9.5 (-104)
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